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Dow Jones Industrials – Recap

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DJFOR-D 06072013

So far the Dow has rallied 27 weeks on an intraday basis establishing the high on target for the week of 05/20, but on a weekly closing, the high was the previous week 05/13 making it a perfect 26 week rally.The week of 05/27 closed slightly beneath the week of 05/20 confirming technically we should have seen a correction. That manifested in a decline for yet another 10 trading day count into yesterday. This bear count is also right on target and we have the reaction to the upside for today, which was a Directional Change and a Panic Cycle on the Daily Level. The Daily Bullish Reversals are 15298.00 and 15463.00.

Our weekly models now target the week of 06/17 for the next Directional Change and curiously the big target is the last week of July starting to line up with the ECM that turns on the 7th of August.

A closing today for the Dow above 15162.84 will keep the market neutral yet firm. We need a closing ABOVE 15298 to signal a sustainable rally. Next week we see 15127.00 as a pivot point. The primary support lies at 1439-1436 and a weekly closing beneath that area will signal a brief sharp correction.

Monthly level shows a Directional Change in July, rising volatility starting in August after the ECM, and a big target for the year as a turning point will be September that is most likely lining up with the German elections. Once again, a Merkel loss will raise the reality that Europe will not survive intact. We have a Panic Cycle showing up in November.