Posted Dec 1, 2013 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Dear Mr Armstrong,
I hope you and your family are well.
Before I ask my question you are a hero of mine and a champion of the little guy and for that I commend you. It would have been easy to come out of jail and not help the general public and advise very wealthy people and basically self serve. You did not you are a man of great integrity, so thank you.
My question is this, Your call of 32,000 DOW will be fulfilled I have no doubt whether we get to that exact number remains to be seen but DOW 30k will be breached or we will get damn close. But arguing over 2-3 thousand dow points is splitting hairs in my opinion.
The issue I have is Europe as you have said is in a state of disarray but for me the German DAX is the most important market in Europe and this market has out performed the DOW even the rest of Europe FTSE/CAC etc have lagged the US indexes. Is this jus a temporary problem and the DAX will loose its shine and the dow and other US sectors will power ahead whilst European market either stagnate or move up but just not at the same velocity as the US indexes??
I hope you find the time to answer this question.
Once again thanks for all your help not just from me but from everyone whom takes the time to read and listen to your work.
ANSWER: The question of how high will the Dow go depends entirely upon capital flows. The Nikkei soared from the 20,000 level at the low in 1987 to 40,000 by the end of the cycle 1989.95. Here are the projections we gave back then – 39,314 and 59,979. It is always a question of TIME and PRICE.
Currently, our projections for the Dow are 20,000 for 2015.75 with the extreme being 32,000. It seems that the 32,000 is more likely hit on the next cycle, for if that were to be reached on this cycle in 2015, OMG the aftermath may be catastrophic. Nonetheless, this is a Phase Transition that we cannot rule out just yet.
The target 2015.75 is 31.4 years from the start of the breakout in 1983 where the Dow finally broke through the 1,000 barrier. We are laying out the cyclical perspective for the years ahead in the upcoming special report.
The DAX has outperformed because it is also an accumulative earnings index a bit different from most others. However, the German market has experienced a capital flight within Europe as people have sought shelter from the Euro in Germany assuming if the Euro fails, they will end up with Deutsche Marks. Germany has not outperformed the US on substantive issues. It is simply a capital move and not based upon economic outlooks.