Posted Oct 26, 2013 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Martin, you said in a recent blog: “Gold peaked with the low in the ECM in 2011 and it should rise after 2016 into 2020. This is a matter of the overall business cycle.”
Have you now changed your major low in gold forecast from the original before or in Jan 2014 to now in 2015? Has your gold major low forecast cycle analysis changed to expect a major low in gold before 2016 now instead of by Jan 2014?
And your original forecast of the earnest rise in gold from 2014 through 2017 to now from 2016 to 2020? we will all be frail by then!
Also, is this a sudden sense one gets from reading your blogs these days of your new found enamoured feelings towards stocks now? LOL
Has Marin joined the Dow 31000 crowd and gold back to $250 bandwagon?
ANSWER: The low and the high are different events. The earliest for a TEMPORARY high is 2017. However, if we are looking at a full blow collapse in pension funds, escalating interest rates, sovereign debt collapse and rapid acceleration due to interest rates, then the cycle may be extended into a high for 2025 WHICH I HAVE STATED BEFORE with a postponement. If we get a cycle inversion where all government assets decline and capital loses full faith and confidence in government, then the next cycle into 2024 could be exceptionally wild and gold will invert relative to the ECM. This Private Wave finally peaks in 2032 so we have only 2 more 8.6 year waves after the current one and they should be a Phase Transition with capital in full flight running away from government. The 2032 high may be the FINAL high for gold and all tangible assets in the counter-trend to PUBLIC (government) assets.
So a bull market phase is 13 years, then 23, 26, 31-32, 37 and 51. I have stated many times you get the 2 to 3 year correction after a 13 year rally as is the case often with these other intervals as well. NOTHING moves in a straight upward direction. There must ALWAYS be the counter-trend move. A 23 year rally brings us to the 2022 target on the next wave. If gold rallies into that turning point and declines into 2028, it has completed the cycle inversion from Public to Private Wave formation. A rally from 1999 in the 32 category brings us to 2032. This will all be laid out in the upcoming Special Gold Report as will the case of what REALLY moves gold historically – not the bullshit sales pitches..
Gold has NOT yet exceeded the 1980 high adjusted for inflation using a 1981 based CPI where the Dow has done so, You just have to wake-up and realize that some of these theories are sales gimmicks that sound logical but there is NO proof like the hedge against inflation.
Anyone who has ever eaten a carrot has died. That is an ABSOLUTE true statement that can be proven. Now introduce TIME and you will see there is no real correlation between death and eating the carrot. This is the entire problem with analysis – it inevitably tries to create a one-dimensional relationship when it is far more dynamic and complex.
If you continue to argue the same dead points that were argued for 19 years as gold went down from fiat to hyperinflation, then you will be one of those fools who is easily separated from their money. EVERYTHING is connected. Capital shifts between assets classes for each boom and bust and it floats around the world from one country to the next in search of that one-way street to all the riches of the world. You have to determine if you want to separate from the herd or run off the cliff like the rest of them.
YES the Dow has a chance of doubling. I have stated that BEFORE. However, that does NOT imply a collapse in gold to $250 or $100 or anything else insane. I would not expect gold to go much beyond a retest of the 1980 high of $875 in the worst of cases in this nominal world where the one-eye analyst is king. Gold should fade the $1,000 level and then the headlines will claim gold is dead. When that happens, the lows are near.
So you may hate my guts because gold has declined. I get such hate mail it is unbelievable. One even said ever since I was released gold has declined simply because I alone said so and that proves I can manipulate the world. I suppose everything I touch turns to gold like some James Bond movie as well. As long as you keep trying to find someone to blame for your own mistakes, you will never see the light. Don’t bother going to church or help charities. You donate far too much now to the promoters and bankers. I am sure they appreciate your donations.