Does the Model Change Its Mind?

Socrates-IPad

The answer to this question is yes and no. There are two entirely separate  forecasts TIME and PRICE. There are three markers in price with respect to the Dow – 18500, 23000, and then 40000. The earliest time frame was 2016. There is no guarantee that we will see the 40000 level. This is why we have to follow the numbers. It is always a IF – THEN – ELSE issue for both TIME and PRICE must agree. If we reach the end of the cycle and it has only reached 23000, then that is it. If we exceed the 23000 level PRIOR to the end of the cycle, then the 40000 target becomes possible.

Understanding that these are two entirely different models enables us to watch how everything unfolds. This is why I say I am personally ambivalent toward what price level we reach. I go with the flow. This is not about right or wrong. The market is never wrong – only analysts.

The model provides us with both the TIME and the PRICE. There are no guarantees as to when a price will be executed above or below the market. They are stress points so to speak within the fabric of the economic whole.

ECM Greece

The important thing to grasp is how everything is connected. The hate mail I got about gold was unbelievable. Some even accused me of manipulating the world for when I was released then gold peaked. Nice correlation, but look at everything around you. Nothing but nothing can take place is total isolation for everything is interlinked. The Greece default began right to the day of Pi. The 2007.15 high picked to the day the peak in the real estate market took place that they called it “Armstrong’s Revenge”.

These things set in motion the trend so you could see gold moved into its phase transition ONLY post 2007.15 when the ECM turned down and peaked with the low in the ECM in 2011. That is when the Dow began to take off. Even Barrons reported that we were calling for new record highs almost tongue-in-cheek. We were correct on all these things ONLY because they are all connected.

Domino-PreventingTheChainReaction

 

The Swiss Peg failed because this is a series of dominoes. You cannot stop the events in motion. So the key here is understanding. The model focuses our attention. It approaches TIME and PRICE entirely differently. What keeps my interest is watching in astonishment how the world really functions. There is a third approach, which is PATTERN RECOGNITION. My personal goal is to write the code to merge all three and then see what happens. Perhaps then it will be able to definitively forecast everything precisely in a unified manner – my version of a Grand Unified Theory. That would be really awesome. I am not yet sure that can be accomplished. Nevertheless, it is my project in the spare time when I can find some.