Cycle of War & Civil Unrest

CycleOfWar-2014

 

QUESTION: Marty; Your work on the cycle of war is really amazing. I found it fascinating how war has popped up everywhere in 2014 and then Ferguson hits the same as in 1964 when the race riots also lined up with your model. This too may be a trend and the peak in that comes in 2017-2018?

Thanks

HG

detroit_race_riot_1967

 

Detroit 1967

ANSWER:  A peak in domestic activity should appear in the 2017-2018 time slots but that will not be the end. It appears we will extend into 2020 before seeing any sort of a reversal of fortune. True, the American race riots began in 1964 peaked in 1968 and ended in 1971. This appears to be the standard time for such events.

 

Nov 1918 Revolution Berlin

 

German Communist Revolution 1918

Even if we look at the World War I turning point of 1914. We see the Communist Revolutions in 1917 and 1918, which were domestic events and fall into the category of civil unrest rather than international conflict. Russia goes into revolution in 1917 and then you have the German communist revolution in 1918. We should see the civil unrest side start to peak on the same time scale in 2017-2018. This is just how long this takes to get a majority for political change.

TankMan-060589

Even the fall of Communism that began with the civil uprising in China in 1989 was right on target. There is just simply stated a time and place for everything. It takes human nature a predefined amount of time to change trend. However, they will always RISE to the occasion. We will see many interesting trends emerge now starting in 2014 moving forward.