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Crude Oil – In the Grips of Massive Deflationary Cycle

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CrudeOil-Y 2014

Our original forecast for oil back in 1997 was that it should rise to reach the $100 level at least by 2007. We reached $99.29 in 2007 and then 2008 was a wild trading year reaching $147.27 intraday crashing back to $35.13 and closing the year at $44.60. Oil made the intraday low in 2009 and then rallied back into 2011 to score the highest yearly closing at $98.83. We can see from the chart above back to 1902, the rally from the 1998 low was a perfect 13 year event.

We warned that a year-end closing BELOW $57 will signal a sharp decline should continue. It certainly appears that will be accomplished and then we will look for a retest of the $35-$31 level. We see a Panic Cycle ahead on our yearly models as well.

Overall, this is part of the meltdown for BIG BANG. There is not going to be much left standing as every field of investment and economy should be hit rather hard. We will be looking at putting out a special report on Energy for this is part of the massive global deflationary cycle underway.