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The rise in Bitcoin to $147 is clearly a phase transition. Nothing moves in that manner that is sustainable. The cyber attacks are interesting. They could be major players seeking to disrupt the business to benefit short positions. Or it could be government attacks as well.

The problem Bitcoin faces is the same we all face. The core assumption that they can create an electronic currency out of the banking system and actually survive as an alternative to government, is a bit naive. The assumption is that governments will play by the rule of law. What stops them from simply storming the offices and criminalizing it as money laundering?  At least Hitler respected the sovereignty of Switzerland. Today, it is all about money and they could care even less about international law. Switzerland had been forced to yield. They can shut down entire countries unless they comply.

In the 1970’s, when futures were starting, we had tax-straddles. Lets say gold was rising into January 1980 so you sold short Dec 1979 and bought Feb 2000 gold. You closed the trade taking the loss in 1979 and thus the money was moved from one year to the next. The IRS learned about the play, imposed mark-to-market on all positions, ending the straddles, and then went after all the records of firms and clients who participated charging fines, interest and penalties.

I seriously doubt that with the kill-switch, the ability of government cut off power and track every transmission, that any type of electronic money will ever be safe. The only solution is to leave for Asia, or push for major reform to end taxation and restore our liberty and privacy. Otherwise, there is no rule of law. They will do whatever they want. They can easily declare it to be money-laundering, and don’t forget, that is how they discovered Eliot Spitzer’s payment to a hooker that forced him to resign as governor of New York state.

Every country now has a cooperating money laundering department. They are tracking absolutely everything with no exceptions.