QUESTION: Dear Martin,
Just to probe your theory further,
If a meteor were to hit New York and wipe out Wall Street would your predictions on ECM still be intact? Don’t tell me even meteors also are part of cycle to choose when to hit the earth 🙂
ANSWER: Honestly, the answer to be accurate is absolutely yes! Why? How? It is already in the data. We need not plot them or include them – they are already there like everything else. It is like war. You cannot extract it from the data smoothing everything out. This would be like pretending World War I did not happen or that it was even unpredictable. General Patton warned about the rise of Russia and Winston Churchill warned about the rise of Hitler. Society ignored both until they were proven correct.
So have meteors changed the economy and have they thereby altered economic trends? The answer is yes. A rather major one hit in 1908 and helped to fuel the communist revolution in Russia. Fortunately, they are not as common as volcanoes and earthquakes.
Meteors travel cyclically and most likely they would take place only when the timing is correct for the historical record also includes such events both local and major. So I would not worry about that until 2032. Nature has played a MAJOR role in the rise and fall or the economy. It was the Black Death that initiated the age of Capitalism. It was the collapse of Rome during the 3rd century that caused Christianity to spread. The eruption of Vesuvius that buried Pompeii came in 79AD and was economically quite shocking in Rome. There was the major 1906 Earthquake in San Francisco that resulted in the creation of the Federal Reserve.
There was the 1923 earthquake in Tokyo that wiped out the city. Then there was the eruption of Tambora in 1815 that created the year without a summer as snow fell in New York City during July 1816. This is just to mention a few that have impacted the economy. And let us not forget the eruption of Thera around 1650BC that wiped out the Minoans and shifted the power to Greece.
Tunguska Event in Russia 1908
As far as meteors, yes there was the Tunguska event which was a large explosion in Russia on June 30 [O.S. June 17], 1908. The explosion occurred at an altitude of 5–10 kilometres (3–6 mi) at 60.886°N, 101.894°E. It is classified as an impact even though the asteroid or comet is believed to have burst in the air rather than hitting the surface. The Russian Revolution started in January 1905 as a strike began at the Putilov Works in St. Petersburg. The Tunguska event came right at the perfect time to inspire greater numbers for the Revolution. Within just 13 years, July 17, 1918 the czar and his family were executed. So the meteor event did impact economics and that in turn aided the revolution.
You cannot extract anything. Absolutely everything is included from weather, earthquakes, volcanoes, and meteors to plagues and disease. There are cycles in everything. The interesting aspect is how they come together like the synchronization of waves in the ocean that produce the giant wave that appears as a harmonic of many. the key is to remain unbiased and just let the data show you the truth. Worry able the explanation later.