Analysis v Funds Management

COMMENT: Hi Martin,

I appreciate all the work that you put into your daily blog and your computer database etc, but I do get a little annoyed when you use phrases that include the words “could”, “perhaps”, “maybe” and such guarded words in the context of market predictions.  We all know that the market “could” go up next week or it “could” go down.  What people want to know is which way it is going and we look to you and your vast knowledge and computer program to provide guidance.

Regards

TB

GMW-Dow-1015-2014

REPLY: I am not in the business of providing opinion. Stating the market “could” do this or that is based upon a number and time. Here is the number, if elected, then and only then would it react. Stating a market “could” continue to rise IF it closes above a particular number is the difference between opinion and strict quantitative analysis. Even the Global Market Watch the day of the low picked up the low stating IMPORTANT LOW and that is the computer from a pure pattern recognition level.

If you want someone to just yell buy or sell and nothing else, there are plenty of people on TV to do that. This is about understanding a bit more deeply and you should NEVER buy or sell anything based upon someone’s opinion. This is about quantitative analysis without emotions and here are the numbers so let’s leave the market to show the way. The numbers are elected or not. Plain and simple. No qualifying words. Here are the inflections in time for turning points and the Global Market Watch is monitoring patterns.

Yes I will point out the possibilities of a Sling-Shot Move etc, so you are aware that there can be a serious development. However, that is speculation at this point not a forecast. Had the Dow exceeded the September high and closed above it yesterday, then a Sling-Shot would have been CONFIRMED. It was not!. This is not saying buy or sell based upon possibilities. When CONFIRMED, I will clearly state it. Alerting people to the possibilities are important so you can follow the markets and understand what they are saying. Stating we “could” see a rally to 26K is important to comprehend the potential. When the breakout unfolds, it will be CONFIRMED long before reaching such a target in price or time.

The same in gold. Stating hey look, it appears we have a 2 to 3 year correction coming back in 2011 was CONFIRMED only when election the pressure points, yet that generated tons of hate mail and the Goldbug media thereafter refused to ever address our forecasts. I stated clearly a 3 year correction from the highest close in 2012 put the low in late 2015 around the ECM. Warning about the potential trend is necessary so you understand the future, but that is NOT a forecast until there is a CONFIRMATION by the election of a particular number. It is important to have a road-map of the landscape both up and down in any market.

A professional trader enters a trade but MUST always define where he is wrong. You just have to know where to get out of a trade by defining where you are wrong. You must also have a target where to take profit and exit. That I advised the day of the low and said here is the number to go back in if I am wrong. This is not “qualifying” a forecast, this is professional forecast defining where you are right and where you are wrong at all times – it is just mandatory! Buying something like gold and holding forever is an “investor” not a trader.

Socrates will bring this all together and put it into English like no individual could possibly do. Perhaps I had a headache and forgot to check something I should have, Human opinion is worthless for it cannot be consistent. So approach this from a different perspective and you will understand markets and not be led to the slaughter by those yelling and screaming on their soap boxes. If you really just want someone to do it for you, then funds management is where to look.