Dow – Near-Term Risk

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There is clearly a risk of a temporary high this week. It is 13 weeks up, and the momentum is losing ground. Nevertheless, our energy models are not excessively overbought. Here is what the resistance looks like. Volatility starts next week. If we get a low into July/August, then a rally will follow thereafter. A high at that time will warn of a fall crash most likely associated with the German elections.