Posted Jan 29, 2013 by Martin Armstrong
Just to make it absolutely clear, within every wave, like in a bull market, there are always counter trends or corrections. There MUST be two sides in all trends be it bullish or bearish. The overall character of the present wave is a PRIVATE WAVE meaning that in such waves markets advance more rapidly and volatility rises. During a PUBLIC WAVE that ended in 1981.35, the leading trend was confidence in government so the bond markets did best and the Dow could not get through the 1000 level until the wave changed to private in 1985.
At the 309.6 year level, there are still tendencies for the PUBLIC v PRIVATE aspect. At this level it is a bit different. It is the rise and fall of empires so we have the most drastic elements at that level – the swing between civilization and isolationism through fragmentation. This is typically caused by government becoming so corrupt that people abandon the idea of collective societies as being beneficial. The Romans called the abandonment of the cities – suburbium.
When Rome collapsed, you moved away from government and feudalism began. The same in Japan. There is a danger of a dark age perhaps after 2032. Hopefully I will be dead by then. But it is hard to put the odds on that. But this is why we are in a growing trend of dissatisfaction that is manifesting in separatist movements. This is the opposite of civilization. People are getting fed up with government and because this is the LAST 51.6 year wave in this 309.6 year cycle, it is the PHASE TRANSITION period so things can get really nuts.
No matter what the system, there are ALWAYS two opposite forces constantly at work simultaneously – bulls v bears; democrats v republicans, and left v right. There has to always be two forces and one will be the dominant one during a period. Hence, there will be times Democrats control both houses and other times it will be Republicans. But NEVER are there no opposites. So any cycle has its dominant force, but that does not mean the opposite does not simultaneously exist.
There is no possible way that everyone will ever believe one thing regardless of what it is. There will always be people who attack, distort, lie, and misrepresent anything in an effort to say they alone are right. That is the way everything functions. It is nothing unusual.
At the 309 year level, weather has played a greater role in altering the behavior of society. There is the first Heroic period in Greek history separated also by a dark age, and then the Hellenistic period. During the dark age, because of weather Greeks took to ships and migrated south. Other cultures called them the Sea People. Rome (1) overthrew its king, (2) Republic became an Oligarchy, (3) after tremendous civil wars, it became Imperial Rome, and then collapsed. China also was invaded by the Mongols and was taken over by them even though they did not know how to read or write. They too were weakened by floods, famine, disease, and corruption.
It is pointless to argue. Some people have their mind set and will never yield. So why bother? Others have a open mind and judge accordingly. They are the minority. Look at the Presidential elections. The winner is typically decided by less than 10% of the vote. Democrats will NEVER convince Republicans they are right etc..
The people who come to our conferences are typically the cream of the crop. The open minded and most intelligent rather than the mindless drone who believe only what they want to because of predetermined biases. That’s life. You will NEVER convince people who are antagonistic to anything that disagrees with their dogma.
Nothing lasts for ever. That is why I was impressed with Margaret Thatcher. She understood cycles and that the Conservatives would lose. When I asked her why, she said “It’s Just Time.”