The Coming Phase Transition & the Dow



Mr. Armstrong,

Thanks for all you do.  I do have one question in regards to the Phase Transition above 23000 into the 35000-40000 number you have spoke of.  If we experience a close below 15500 for the month of August and see a continued correction into October to  around the 12000-13000 number would the top end thereafter be 23000 or would there still be a possibility of a phase transition regardless of when the low takes place, be it August or October?  Thanks for the clarification.




ANSWER: No. The three targets are price: 18500, 23000, and 30000-40000. That is independent of TIME. The doubling is the minimum. Our original forecast that the Dow would at least double by 2015 from the 2009 low of 6440 gave us a MINIMUM target of 12000-13000. We exceeded that and went to the next target of 18500. The next level being 23000 is at the MINIMUM requirement for a Phase Transition — double, if we fell back to retest the old doubling target, but we need not pull back that far. The criteria is to turn the majority bearish to run into bonds.


A lot of e-mails have been coming in saying they can now tell who follows us and who does not. The followers are selling bonds into the high and others who do not follow are buying. That is probably a fair statement.




Our target for the high was 2015, and so far it formed in May in equities leaving the ECM for the interest low, which was also on target. Those who continue to predict a collapse in the stock market as some catastrophic event where only gold will rise, have no clue that gold is by no means a viable safe-haven for the big money — that is for the individual.

Big money must choose between equities and bonds. We are at effectively reaching a 5,000-year low in interest rates. It cannot get more bearish than this for government. What we face is monumental. Trump is tapping into this anti-establishment momentum and the press is showing how corrupt they are constantly attacking Trump to maintain the establishment who they surrendered their ethics to a long time ago.