Oil & The Commodity Risk



Mr Armstrong,

I work in engineering and last year I was offered a position back in a major North Sea oil company. The reason I turned it down was due to your forecast that oil was going to slump. If that was the case, I thought I would duly be paid off not long after it slumped. It turned out to be spot on as the some of the men who did take up the roles were given their notice (they were promised 5 years work like myself). For this I have to tip my hat to you and give you a huge thank you. Can I ask then, how do you see the next few years panning out for oil? I know your immediate forecast is for it to hit $30 / barrel (TWI or Brent??) but what about next year and the year after? Many thanks once again for all your work. You have helped the little man more than you know.



REPLY: This comment illustrates that forecasting is more than just trading. Understanding the trend can assist in making many decisions. The bulk of losses we have to help fix are typically involving currency risk and/or commodity risk.

Oil will drop to the first support zone $31-$35. Breaking that level will warn that we should see a broader decline. It does not appear that oil will make new highs in real terms. Technology is shifting and oil will gradually fade in use over decades ahead.