Blog/Reports and DVDs
Posted Sep 16, 2016 by Martin Armstrong
With each peak in the Economic Confidence Model, a different sector becomes the focus. The peak in interest rates occurred on 1981.35 and was the peak of the Public Wave that followed the 1929.75 Private Wave. The Public Wave bottomed on 1985.65 during the summer of 1985. This event marked the birth of the current Private Wave as well as the birth of the G5 at the Plaza Accord. Private Waves are marked by more aggressive government attempts to control everything for they feel the power beginning to slip from their grasp.
That first 8.6-year target in this current Private Wave peaked in 1989.95, which was of course the peak in Communism and the Japanese stock market bubble beginning their long-depression. The mid point was 1987. That first 8.6-year wave bottomed in 1994.25, which marked the peak in emerging markets (South East Asia) and the precise low in the US share market to the day.
The next peak was 1998.55 (July 20th) and that marked the temporary peak in the US share market again to the day, as well as the peak in Russia and the subsequent Long-Term Capital Management debacle. The Pi target from the high pinpointed the World Trade Center attack also to the day (911).
The next bottom was 2002.85, which marked the low following the DOT.COM Bubble. The next wave peak was 2007.15, which marked the very day of the high in the Case-Shiller Real Estate Index and the start of the mortgage crisis. The next low was on 2011.45 and from there the stock market took off once again. We then reached the high at 2015.75, the peak in government this this time.
The negative interest rates implemented to bailout the banks post-2007.15 have set the stage for the next crisis — the Pension Crisis. With Public and Private pension funds unable to make ends meet, we are now looking at the collapse of socialism post-2015.75 going into 2020.05, which was clearly the peak in government.
Historically, families and marriage provided the security needed to support the elderly prior to the proliferation of pensions. As the population became more industrialized, private annuities rose in popularity with pensions resembling disability insurance. With the rise of socialism, pensions not only grew in popularity but replaced the family as support for the elderly. Unfunded pensions combined with poor demographics in which the elderly comprise a greater portion of the global population are leading to a situation that could cause the collapse of governments globally. The future for retirement is seriously in danger. The central banks are trapped and are unable to reverse course without admitting they have been dead wrong.
Explore the origin of pensions and how their mismanagement has destroyed civilizations throughout history. This 87-paged report also discusses the various factors that have contributed to the crisis, current fiscal policies, as well as why your 401(k) may be in danger.