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Computer Models for Predictive Policing

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QUESTION: Hello Marty,

What is your opinion on predictive policing? Have you been involved in this? I heard of a company selling software to police departments based on an algorithm. Would yours do better thanks to pi?

Thanks for your blog


ANSWER: Predictive policing attempts to harness the power of information, geospatial technologies, and evidence-based intervention models under the pretense of reducing crime and improving public safety. I would NEVER assist the police in any way, shape, or form in such a project. They are not trustworthy and the type of people they hire now are not the way police were when I was a kid. Governments do not want the normal police officers or soldiers who has retained his humanity. This is becoming all about money. The attitude you encounter from them is just so nasty like you are the enemy. Today, they prefer to hire vets from war zones who have been conditioned and feel no remorse if they kill someone. Normal vets need not apply. Our local police have become militarized as if this is war. Governments deliberately seek ex-military from war zones who crossed the line and have lost all or most of the humanity. The last thing we need is a police force that tries to arrest people because they think they will do something. That takes this whole thing into the “Minority Report” zone.

I prefer to limit our forecasting to societal trends rather than trying to target specific groups. We will continue to see the rise in civil unrest, and, make no mistake about it, this is what has really been behind Trump and similar candidates in Britain, France, Germany, and Asia. This is the rising discontent with government as a whole and it is unfolding globally.

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When a person from the London FT got into our London Conference in June 1998 and reported on the front page that we were forecasting the collapse of Russia, which became the Long-Term Capital Management debacle, that is when the CIA called. They realized that a model could project the rise and fall of a nation stemming from its economy. I offered to run whatever study they wanted, but they said no, they had to own it. Naturally, I said forget it. They would surely have tried to reverse engineer it to do the same thing and then convert it to a weapon to undermine countries. Whether that is possible, I seriously doubt for everything is connected. Nevertheless, I would never want to assist in such an operation of an offensive nature. I told the government after 9/11 that all they had to do was check to see who bought puts on airline stocks the day to week before and follow the trail. Now that’s what they are monitoring all the time.

When you drive past a police car, it is recording every license plate. The police will pull you over if your registration has expired or if there is an arrest warrant for you for anything. Their computers are tracking everything and telling the cops, “Here’s one!” This is why they want photo IDs. They can track your location and find you now with your cell phone. They can revoke your passport if they even think you owe them money and it becomes your burden to prove you do not. I am glad I am not 18. This is not a world that I would want to grow up in today.