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The Dow for the Close of Second Quarter 2016

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DJIND-Q 6-30-2016

Here is our original technical projection from the 1987 low that we made while looking forward into the end of this private wave (51.6-year) target of 2032. Looking where we are right now, that is the top two price numbers showing 853315 on the bottom and 2264160 on the top. This remains our next primary target zone up in the 22,000-23,000 level. We just have to wait for a Monthly Bullish Reversal at 18104 to be elected. However, the 3rd quarter of 2016 is when volatility should start to rise. We have the US political elections and conventions are happening this summer, so expect the markets to get choppy. It is unlikely for a breakout at this time and we have no real Quarterly Bullish Reversals (18137) or Monthly (18104) within striking distance for today.

Below the market gives us some concern to watch the important levels at 17579 and 17115. We have technical support during July at 17480 so this can become resistance if we close below it today. The 17120 level is still critical on our weekly model. A close below that on Friday will warn we are breaking down for the Summer, probably over the political instability with the US elections. This would become a possibility if we see a closing below 17579 today.

For now, it does not seem we are ready for the breakout. It appears we have to still see the US elections as one influence, but then we have the EU crisis as its counter-balance. This will be determined by the numbers.