COMMENT #1: Mr. Armstrong, I just wanted to thank you. I am a converted gold bug. Your comment about how gold was $875 in 1980 and the Dow was 1,000 compared to today cannot be ignored. I can see now that it is more of a religion than reality, like climate change absent the science. I was at Starbucks, and Generation X before me just paid with his phone. They have no idea what money is and have no idea of precious metals.
I just want to say thank you. I now understand they are a hedge when confidence collapses, and we are moving closer to that period day by day.
Thank you for the education
QUESTION #1: Hello. If a house cost $4,000 in 1930, then it costs 200 x 1930 $20 gold pieces to buy the house.
A $20 gold piece at 33.4 grams of gold today would be $471,000. So, there has been little change, except the standard house in 1930 could have used some updates. I wonder if property corellates to gold.
Just for fun; Rob
ANSWER #1: You have to be careful, for this is usually a selective analysis put out as a sales pitch. A loaf of Wonder Bread was 10 cents in 1930, and it’s about $5 today. That is the standard long-term inflation. This is the key that everything rises and falls.
Yes, it’s good to be diversified. Just be careful with the gold bugs. They often tell you to sell everything, for only gold will rise. That is just not true, and I have seen so many people lose a fortune on that advice.
QUESTION #2: Mr. Armstrong,
could you explain how futures markets affect the spot price/the market price?
We hear of futures markets manipulating, affecting the market price, but how is i ask?
I heard that because of the futures markets we then get a different perception of the market price. Meaning that if the futures are trading lower, than the market price will get lower or if the futures are trading higher than the market price will trade higher. Is this true??
ANSWER #2: It is a fool’s argument to try to explain why gold peaked at $875 in 1980, with the Dow Jones Industrials at 1,000. Today, gold is $2,000, and the Dow is 33,000. So, to explain why gold has not risen, it must be manipulated.
Futures provide liquidity to any commodity or market. Liquidity expands the market, and thus, more people get involved. If you closed the futures market, then the only way to trade gold would be in physical bullion. The number of investors would collapse. Moreover, producers need the futures market to sell forward to lock in a profit to produce. If a farmer plants a crop expecting to get the market price when planting and something happens when it goes to harvest, he can lose his shirt and be out of business. Future contracts are selling your crop when you plant it, and you are effectively selling the risk to someone else. Here is a futures contract from Babylon during the 19th century BC. This is the way markets have been able to function for thousands of years.
My mother always told me there is a time and place for everything. Eliminating the futures market would rapidly make gold untradable. Miners will not function if they always have to roll the dice, hoping gold will rise and not decline when they finish refining a lot. This is the same for farmers and even in funds management.
I was offered $60 billion to manage as a stock fund in the USA. Because there is a conflict between the SEC and the CFTC, the rule was I could not HEDGE more than 17% at the time, or that would change the definition to a futures fund from an equity fund. I declined because if I saw a crash coming, I would have to sell the stocks, for I would not be allowed to sell futures to cover the risk. That is why I, along with others, started the hedge fund industry back in the 1980s: when S&P500 futures began to trade, these two agencies were fighting over jurisdiction. It was IMPOSSIBLE to comply with the law under the SEC, for you would go to jail with the CFTC. Hence, it was the OVERREGULATION that created the hedge fund industry by force.
Futures are vital because they provide the liquidity to expand markets. Because gold is an international commodity, it CANNOT be manipulated to turn a bull market into a bear market. Even the manipulation claims against the bankers are standard in trading markets. They would know where all the stops are, and they would gun for them. There is always room for swings within any market, but you cannot take a bull market and make a bear market at will.
And just for the record, I have bought gold over the years. I bought a hoard of $20 gold pieces from a central bank. I have bought gold bars from the SS Central America that went down and caused the Panic of 1857. Gold and silver have their place in a diversified portfolio. NO PORTFOLIO should ever be 100% on one thing!