The Euro & the Pending Bounce

IBEUUS-D 3-11-2017

While Europe is certainly not turning bullish, what we do see is a bounce due to the fundamental focus of the pending US debt ceiling battle looming on the horizon. Naturally, the press will be blaming Trump so we should be prepared for headlines like US going to default. The press will use this incident created by Obama and Boehner to score as many points against Trump as possible. Facts mean nothing to mainstream press. They have their agenda and that is not going to suddenly change. So we should expect dire headlines about how the USA will default and all this may provide a bounce for the Euro for up to two months until the French elections on May 7th. Keep in mind, this is a slow and agonizing process that cannot be stopped. The economic and politics of Europe are a total disaster because politicians now make decision to protect their jobs and pensions from Brussels. There is traditionally the false move that get people off-side so we should bounce before we collapse.

The key resistance will be 10855 and a weekly closing above that level will point to a rally back to the 11050 area and a monthly closing above that would then point to 112-115 level. March needs to close above 11300 on a pure technical perspective to raise any hope of a more prolonged rally beyond 2 months.