QUESTION: Dear Mr Armstrong.
I attended the Berlin conference and already enrolled for Orlando as well. I have a question regarding the EURO. It is obvious that the EU cannot be sustained as is. I think, so far, I do understand the decline of the EURO. We see it happen. But Germany and France are vigorously protecting their dream. However voices are louder for Italy to abandon the EURO, with probably more countries to follow and but with Germany and France clinging on. With weaker countries leaving, isn’t Euro starting to look more and more like a Deutsch Mark?
My question is; is the anticipated decline in the EURO to below par to the dollar the only scenario, or can the EURO recover once the weaker countries are out?
Thanks you for all you do.
FB
ANSWER: The Euro cannot become the Deutsche Mark for at the end of the day there are also conflicts between Germany and France. As I have stated before, the Federal Reserve was set up with each branch maintaining its own interest rate. That enabled a single currency to survive. The pressure was then contained in the interest rates. It was FDR who seized the Federal Reserve and imposed a single national interest rate. That was OK to work through World War II, but ever since, the pressures have not been offset in interest rates but in local economies. We always called it the New York/Texas arbitrage. The Fed would raise rate to fight speculation in stocks in NYC while putting farmers into bankruptcy. The original design was proper. What FDR created was merely copied by the EU. Hence, we see that the promises of the Euro creating one interest rates for all failed. The rates have been rising in the peripheral members.
The negative interest rates are undermining pensions throughout Europe. This will start to lead to failure in 2017. There is just no possible way these people even understand what they have done. For the Euro to survive, that would still mean the subordination of some economic conditions in one member for the benefit of another.
