Posted May 19, 2020 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Marty; I see that Socrates’ forecast for oil in 2020 was a major turning point. All the reversals worked great. But my question is, do you think with this 2020 turning point that this climate change agenda of Bill Gates will fail if oil bottoms here in 2020?
ANSWER: The array picked up 2020 nicely and it was also a Directional Change. But note that we also have a Directional Change in 2021 and the next turning point in 2023. So far all indications are that they will fail in eliminating fossil fuels. Socrates sold even the high just before the Crash. It appears as stated at the WEC, this is the culmination of the trend, and this cycle into the peak of this 8.6-year wave should be a commodity boom but one based upon shortages and currency because we are headed into a Monetary Crisis Cycle for 2021-2022.
So just looking at crude by itself shows that this should be the culmination of a trend rather than the start of a trend as Gates and others would like to profess. That said, the excess in supply is real because they have shut down the global economy with lockdowns which have reduced driving and air travel while also shipping has been disrupted. So 2020 should be at the very least the lowest yearly close.
However, the consequences of a crash in commodity prices typically result in destruction also of the productive capacity. This will happen at the low in Gold or any commodity. We are witnessing that right now in both energy and agriculture. “$30 is already quite bad, but once you get to $20 or even $10, it’s a complete nightmare,” said Artem Abramov, head of shale research at Rystad Energy. Energy companies at the greatest risk of bankruptcy are Callon Petroleum, Chesapeake Energy, Diamond Offshore, and Occidental Petroleum. The more we see energy companies in trouble, the faster we will cut off the excess supply which will be part of the cycle which helps to create the low.
Ironically, creditors are backing off because pushing these companies into bankruptcy means that the creditors will end up with even fewer assets because dumping everything on the market at these prices will create a cascade failure. This is a very interesting dilemma because it is systemic across the industry rather than a single mismanaged company in distress.