Posted Sep 7, 2016 by Martin Armstrong
The Nikkei and Shanghai both took very different directions to reach virtually the same conclusion in todays trading. The Nikkei started in negative territory (almost 2% lower) then spent the day clambering back to what seemed like but unchanged but happened to be -0.45%. However, what many appeared to be happy about was the fact that it managed to close about the 17k level. Shanghai performed well throughout most of the day hitting its highs around lunchtime but faded back to almost unchanged at the close. Hang Seng tended to fade as the day wore on. Eventually closing down 0.2% on the day with Malaysia central bank decision having little impact.
The theme today seemed to support positive equity movement even if the economic data failed to substantiate the price action. All core markets opened weak, having seen a mixed Asian session, then tended to be lifted most of the day. Core closes were DAX and CAC around +0.6%, FTSE +0.4% while the search for additional yielders saw IBEX 1.3% higher on the day. Tomorrow is expected to be a big data when we hear more from Draghi and his plan to direct European. Ahead of that we will see French Non-farms were the previous release was 0.2%. The market expects the ECB to leave the refi, depo and marginal lending rates unchanged and as always it will be down to the Q+A 45mins after the 12:45 announcement. GBP returned some of yesterdays gains as Mark Carney defended his stance surrounding the BREXIT vote but also today after poor Home Price and Manufacturing data.
US trading was rather uneventful with the bright spot the claim that prices recovered towards the close. The best performer was NASDAQ but the stand-out is the fact that the rally is very broad based. There is not really one stock you could highlight and say this is the reason for the move, we are seeing buying across the range.
US Treasuries continue to climb (in price/lower yield) but were marginally halted upon the Feds Beige Book release. The curve saw a little flattening with 2’s closing 0.735% and 10’s at 1.53% (spread at 79.5bp). Bunds saw another dreadful auction failing, technically, yet again with real bids of just 0.8%. Italy 10yr almost unchanged at 1.08%, Greece 8.06%, Turkey 9.31% (-8bp), Portugal 2.96% (-1bp) and UK 10yr at 0.68%.