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Market Talk – September 30, 2021

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Goldman Sachs cut China’s growth forecast to 7.8 percent this year from the previously estimated 8.2 percent, as the world’s second largest economy faces “yet another growth shock” in the form of constraints on energy consumption. The country is already battling to save Evergrande amid fears that Chinese property behemoth could turn out into a “Lehman moment” for the global markets and economy. Goldman Sachs has lowered the year-on-year forecasts for China’s economy to 4.8 percent in the third quarter and 3.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021 compared to 5.1 percent and 4.1 percent respectively for the third and fourth quarters of the previous financial year. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the Wall Street banking giant has slashed its forecast for China to 0 percent in the third quarter from a previous forecast of 1.3 percent and 6 percent in the fourth quarter from the earlier estimated 8.5 percent.

The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today:

  • NIKKEI 225 decreased 91.63 or -0.31% to 29,452.66
  • Shanghai increased 31.87 points or 0.90% to 3,568.17
  • Hang Seng decreased 87.86 or -0.36% to 24,575.64
  • ASX 200 increased 135.50 points or 1.88% to 7,332.20
  • Kospi increased 8.55 points or 0.28% to 3,068.82
  • SENSEX decreased 286.91 points or -0.48% to 59,126.36
  • Nifty50 decreased 93.15 points or -0.53% to 17,618.15



The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:

  • AUDUSD increased 0.0036 or 0.50% to 0.72130
  • NZDUSD increased 0.00198 or 0.29% to 0.68873
  • USDJPY decreased 0.51 or -0.46% to 111.44
  • USDCNY decreased 0.0231 or -0.36% to 6.45478


Precious Metals:

  • Gold increased 32.51 USD/t oz. or 1.88% to 1,758.62
  • Silver increased 0.508 USD/t. oz or 2.36% to 22.020


Some economic news from last night:


Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Sep) increased from 49.2 to 50.0

Chinese Composite PMI (Sep) increased from 48.9 to 51.7

Manufacturing PMI (Sep) decreased from 50.1 to 49.6

Non-Manufacturing PMI (Sep) increased 47.5 to 53.2


Foreign Bonds Buying decreased from 1,761.4B to 440.3B

Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks decreased from 128.7B to -229.4B

Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug) decreased from -1.5% to -3.2%

Industrial Production forecast 1m ahead (MoM) (Sep) decreased from 3.4% to 0.2%

Industrial Production forecast 2m ahead (MoM) (Oct) increased from 1.0% to 6.8%

Retail Sales (YoY) (Aug) decreased from 2.4% to -3.2%

South Korea:

Manufacturing BSI Index (Oct) decreased from 94 to 92

Industrial Production (YoY) (Aug) increased from 7.7% to 9.6%

Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug) decreased from 0.2% to -0.7%

Retail Sales (MoM) decreased from -0.6% to -0.8%

Service Sector Output (MoM) (Aug) decreased from 0.1% to -0.6%


Building Approvals (MoM) (Aug) increased from -8.6% to 6.8%

Housing Credit (Aug) remain the same at 0.6%

Private House Approvals (Aug) increased from -5.5% to 3.5%

Private Sector Credit (MoM) (Aug) decreased from 0.7% to 0.6%

New Zealand:

Building Consents (MoM) (Aug) increased from 2.2% to 3.8%

ANZ Business Confidence (Sep) increased from -14.2 to -7.2

NBNZ Own Activity (Sep) remain the same at 18.2%


Bank Lending increased from 788.5B to 790.1B


Some economic news from today:


Construction Orders (YoY) (Aug) increased from -3.4% to -2.0%

Housing Starts (YoY) (Aug) decreased from 9.9% to 7.5%


Federal Fiscal Deficit (Aug) increased from 3,211.43B to 4,680.09B

Balance of Payments (USD) (Q2) increased from 3.400B to 31.900B

Current Account % of GDP (QoQ) (Q2) increased from -1.00% to 0.90%

Current Account (USD) (Q2) increased from -8.10B to 6.50B

Trade Balance (USD) (Q2) increased from -41.700B to -30.700B

Infrastructure Output (YoY) (Aug) increased from 9.9% to 11.6%

Hong Kong:

M3 Money Supply (Aug) decreased from 1.7% to -3.0%

Retail Sales (YoY) (Aug) increased from 2.9% to 11.9%




European Central Bank (ECB) launched an investigation phase of a digital euro project in July 2021. The investigation is set to last 24 months and will examine key challenges and opportunities for designing and distributing a digital version of the euro. A digital euro would potentially reach a population of 340 million people if adopted by all of the 19 nations currently part of the Eurozone. The digital euro is envisioned as a central bank digital currency (CBDC), and its aim is to combine the efficiency of electronic payment with the safety of central bank money. ECB’s decision has come at a time of an unprecedented rise of cryptocurrencies, digital currencies backed by private tech giants (such as Facebook’s Diem project) and heightened geopolitical pressure for the EU to keep up with technological developments, given that China is already testing its digital yuan.

The major Europe stock markets had a negative day:

  • CAC 40 decreased 40.79 points or -0.62% to 6,520.01
  • FTSE 100 decreased 21.74 points or -0.31% to 7,086.42
  • DAX 30 decreased 104.58 points or -0.68% to 15,260.69


The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:

  • EURUSD decreased 0.00243 or -0.21% to 1.15761
  • GBPUSD increased 0.00426 or 0.32% to 1.34692
  • USDCHF decreased 0.00081 or -0.09% to 0.93351


Some economic news from Europe today:


Business Investment (YoY) (Q2) increased from 9.7% to 12.9%

Business Investment (QoQ) (Q2) increased from 2.4% to 4.5%

Current Account (Q2) increased from -12.8B to -8.6B

GDP (YoY) (Q2) increased from -5.8% to 23.6%

GDP (QoQ) (Q2) increased from -1.6% to 5.5%

Nationwide HPI (YoY) (Sep) decreased from 11.0% to 10.0%

Nationwide HPI (MoM) (Sep) decreased from 2.0% to 0.1%


Credit Indicator (YoY) (Aug) remain the same at 5.3%

Central Bank Currency Purchase (Oct) remain the same at -1,700.0M


French Consumer Spending (MoM) (Aug) increased from -2.4% to 1.0%

French CPI (MoM) decreased from 0.6% to -0.2%

French CPI (YoY) increased from 1.9% to 2.1%

French HICP (MoM) decreased from 0.7% to -0.2%

French HICP (YoY) increased from 2.4% to 2.7%

French PPI (MoM) (Aug) decreased from 1.5% to 1.0%


KOF Leading Indicators (Sep) decreased from 113.5 to 110.6


Spanish Retail Sales (YoY) (Aug) decreased from -0.1% to -0.9%

Spanish Current account (Jul) increased from 0.28B to 2.49B


German Unemployment Change (Sep) increased from -53K to -30K

German Unemployment Rate (Sep) remain the same at 5.5%

German Unemployment (Sep) decreased from 2.538M to 2.508M

German Unemployment n.s.a. (Sep) decreased from 2.578B to 2.465M

German CPI (MoM) (Sep) decreased from 0.9% to 0.0%

German CPI (YoY) (Sep) increased from 3.9% to 4.1%

German HICP (MoM) (Sep) increased from 0.1% to 0.3%

German HICP (YoY) (Sep) increased from 3.4% to 4.1%


Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate (Aug) remain the same at 9.3%

Italian CPI (YoY) (Sep) increased from 2.0% to 2.6%

Italian CPI (MoM) (Sep) decreased from 0.4% to -0.1%

Italian HICP (YoY) (Sep) increased from 2.5% to 3.0%

Italian HICP (MoM) (Sep)  increased from 0.2% to 1.4%

Euro Zone:

Unemployment Rate (Aug) decreased from 7.6% to 7.5%


Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivered remarks on Tuesday to admit that inflation may last longer than initially anticipated. Although Powell believes that inflation is “temporary,” his definition of continuing to broaden. “Inflation is elevated and will likely remain so in coming months before moderating,” Powell stated. “As the economy continues to reopen and spending rebounds, we are seeing upward pressure on prices, particularly due to supply bottlenecks in some sectors. These effects have been larger and longer lasting than anticipated, but they will abate, and as they do, inflation is expected to drop back toward our longer-run 2% goal.”

US lawmakers frantically panicked at the eleventh hour to prevent a government shutdown. The Senate passed a stopgap funding bill that will extend funding the government until December 3. Funding will expire at midnight, and at the time of this writing the House is still working on final vote. If passed, this is only a temporary fix. Democrats and Republicans cannot agree on the proposed multi-trillion dollar spending bill or debt ceiling limit. Democratic Senator Manchin said that he is willing to vote in favor of a $1.5 trillion package, $2 trillion beneath Biden’s request.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen continued to voice concerns over the looming debt ceiling crisis this Thursday. “Nearly 50 million seniors could stop receiving Social Security payments or receive them delayed,” Yellen said. “Our troops would not know when they would get their next paycheck. We have 30 million families who rely on the monthly child tax credits and they would not receive that relief, at least not on time.” The secretary also pointed to the 2011 debt ceiling crisis, and how waiting until the last minute to act caused a drastic decline in the markets.

US Market Closings:

  • Dow declined 5468 points or -1.59% to 33,843.92
  • S&P 500 declined 51.92 points or -1.19% to 4,307.54
  • Nasdaq declined 63.86 points or -0.44% to 14,448.58
  • Russell 2000 declined 20.94 points or -0.94% to 2,204.37


Canada Market Closings:

  • TSX Composite declined 87.89 points or -0.44% to 20,070.25
  • TSX 60 declined 6.26 points or -0.52% to 1,203.34


Brazil Market Closing:

  • Bovespa declined 127.73 points or -0.11% to 110,979.1





The oil markets had a mixed day today:


  • Crude Oil increased 0.47 USD/BBL or 0.63% to 75.3000
  • Brent decreased 0.11 USD/BBL or -0.14% to 78.5300
  • Natural gas increased 0.242 USD/MMBtu or 4.42% to 5.7160
  • Gasoline increased 0.04 USD/GAL or 1.79% to 2.2693
  • Heating oil increased 0.0426 USD/GAL or 1.85% to 2.3501


The above data was collected around 13:20 EST on Thursday


  • Top commodity gainers: Natural Gas (4.42%) and Lumber (3.41%), Palm Oil (3.19%) and Sugar (5.23%)
  • Top commodity losers: Bitumen (-2.41%), Tin (-4.03%), Lithium (-6.25%), and Soybeans (-2.49%)


The above data was collected around 13:32 EST on Thursday.




Japan 0.063%(-0.2bp), US 2’s 0.2892%(-0.00%), US 10’s 1.5150%(-0.86bps); US 30’s 2.0803%(+0.01%),Bunds -0.2060% (+0.7bp), France 0.1500% (+1.5bp), Italy 0.851% (+2.23bp), Turkey 17.92% (+2bp), Greece 0.8600% (+3.20bp), Portugal 0.363% (+1.90bp); Spain 0.47% (+2.62bp) and UK Gilts 1.022% (+2.9bp).