Posted Sep 27, 2021 by Martin Armstrong
China will likely fail in its bid to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership, but its move to submit an application highlighted the lack of US economic policy in Asia-Pacific. CPTPP is an 11-nation mega-trade pact formed in 2018 after Donald Trump pulled the US out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership a year earlier. All 11 signatories of the CPTPP must agree to China’s request to join before it can be admitted as a member. The countries in the CPTPP are: Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, and Vietnam.
Singapore’s Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) said on Saturday (Sept 25) that the country welcomes the interest in joining the trans-Pacific trade pact by any economy willing and able to meet the pact’s high standards, following news that China is applying to become a member. The MTI said the 11 members of the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) will decide by consensus after discussing the matters on accession.
OUTPUT in Singapore’s factory sector rose year on year for the 10th straight month in August, with support from the linchpin electronics cluster despite a pharma stumble.
The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today:
- NIKKEI 225 decreased 8.75 or -0.03% to 30,240.06
- Shanghai decreased 30.24 points or -0.84% to 3,582.83
- Hang Seng increased 16.62 or 0.07% to 24,208.78
- ASX 200 increased 41.60 points or 0.57% to 7,384.20
- Kospi increased 8.40 points or 0.27% to 3,133.64
- SENSEX increased 29.41 points or 0.05% to 60,077.88
- Nifty50 increased 1.90 points or 0.01% to 17,855.10
The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:
- AUDUSD increased 0.00350 or 0.48% to 0.72895
- NZDUSD increased 0.00110 or 0.16% to 0.70163
- USDJPY increased 0.21 or 0.19% to 110.94
- USDCNY decreased 0.0050 or -0.08% to 6.45828
- Gold increased 2.14 USD/t oz. or 0.12% to 1,752.00
- Silver decreased 0.265 USD/t. oz or 1.18% to 22.680
Some economic news from last night:
Corporate Services Price Index (CSPI) (YoY) decreased from 1.1% to 1.0%
Some economic news from today:
Coincident Indicator (MoM) decreased from -0.1% to -0.2%
Leading Index decreased from 104.2 to 104.1
The UK’s fuel crisis quickly evolved from an inconvenience that disrupted investors’ weekend plans into a serious financial risk for their business. Major UK industries from food processing to utilities were already reeling from the effects of Brexit, a supply-chain crisis, and a record surge in energy prices. The sudden disruption to road-fuel supplies threatens to spread that pain even deeper into the economy, leaving small businesses, care workers, and taxi drivers unable to do their jobs. Last Thursday, BP Plc said it had been forced to shut down a handful of its 1,200 UK fuel stations and restrict supplies to others because it did not have enough drivers for its delivery trucks. Government ministers toured TV studios to say there was no fuel shortage and the closure had only affected five sites, but their reassurances had little effect as lines began to grow at pumps around the country.
Germany’s center-left Social Democrats were set to start trying to form a government after they narrowly won their first national election since 2005, saying they would seek to form a coalition with the Greens and the liberal Free Democrats in what is dubbed as the “traffic light” coalition. While it might take a while before the new government is formed, investors were relieved that the hard-left Linke Party fell below the 5 percent threshold needed to enter Parliament
The major Europe stock markets had a green day:
- CAC 40 increased 12.45 points or 0.19% to 6,650.91
- FTSE 100 increased 11.92 points or 0.17% to 7,063.40
- DAX 30 increased 42.13 points or 0.27% to 15,573.88
The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:
- EURUSD decreased 0.0016 or -0.13% to 1.17049
- GBPUSD increased 0.00410 or 0.30% to 1.37084
- USDCHF decreased 0.0001 or -0.01% to 0.92500
Some economic news from Europe today:
Spanish PPI (YoY) increased from 15.6% to 18.0%
Italian Trade Balance Non-EU (Aug) decreased from 6.85B to 1.58B
M3 Money Supply (YoY) (Aug) increased from 7.6% to 7.9%
Loans to Non Financial Corporations (Aug) decreased from 1.7% to 1.5%
Private Sector Loans (YoY) remain the same at 4.2%
The National Association for Business Economists (NABE) downgraded their anticipated US GDP growth from 6.7% to 5.6%. The panel also downgraded Q3 estimates from 6.6% to May. Those polled cited the delta variant as the main factor for lackluster growth, as travel and hospitality sectors remain muted. The NABE believes that inflation will be temporary, as voiced by the Federal Reserve, with rates declining to 2.4% by Q4 of 2022.
Coinbase announced today that they will allow US users to direct deposit their paychecks into their accounts. Users may choose to deposit a percentage or all of their paycheck, and can bypass fees if they transfer it to cryptocurrency instead of dollars. The company said it will partner with an FDIC-insured bank, but did not mention which one. The news comes a week after the SEC threatened to sue to the company over a volatile high-interest lending product that they then removed from their platform.
Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengre announced plans for immediate retirement due to health concerns. Rosengre was originally set to retire in June 2022 but will vacate the office this Thursday after having served the Federal Reserve since 1985. Kenneth C. Montgomery will temporarily take his place until a permanent successor is selected.
Blackstone Inc. announced plans to sell the Cosmopolitan casino and hotel in Las Vegas for $5.65 billion. The company purchased the property for $1.8 billion seven years ago and invested an additional $500 million on upgrades. In a letter to investors, the firm stated it made almost 10 times the amount of equity it invested in the Cosmopolitan. Las Vegas has seen a rise in tourism this year, with July reaching 3.3 million visitors, which is about 90% of pre-pandemic levels. A representative for Blackstone said the firm is still bullish on Vegas and plans to hold their other stakes on the Las Vegas strip.
US Market Closings:
- Dow advanced 71.37 points or 0.21% to 34,869.37
- S&P 500 declined 12.37 points or -0.28% to 4,443.11
- Nasdaq declined 77.73 points or -0.52% to 14,969.97
- Russell 2000 advanced 32.93 points or 1.46% to 2,281.00
Canada Market Closings:
- TSX Composite advanced 60.76 points or 0.3% to 20,463.42
- TSX 60 advanced 4.24 points or 0.35% to 1,225.97
Brazil Market Closing:
- Bovespa advanced 300.34 points or 0.27% to 113,583.01
Oil and gas stocks jumped 1.2 percent as Brent futures headed for US$80 per barrel amid supply concerns as parts of the world sees demand pick up with the easing of pandemic conditions.
Top African oil exporters Nigeria and Angola will struggle to boost output to their OPEC quota levels until at least next year as underinvestment, and nagging maintenance problems continue to hobble output, Reuters reported. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) agreed in July to add 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) to production from August until December 2021, slowly phasing out the unprecedented supply cuts. However, Nigeria and Angola have underproduced by an average of 276,000 bpd so far this year out of their combined average OPEC quota of 2.83 million bpd according to Refinitiv data, and they are likely to remain below quota through the end of the year.
The oil markets had a green day today:
- Crude Oil increased 1.36 USD/BBL or 1.84% to 75.3400
- Brent increased 1.31 USD/BBL or 1.68% to 79.4000
- Natural gas increased 0.419 USD/MMBtu or 8.15% to 5.5590
- Gasoline increased 0.028 USD/GAL or 1.28% to 2.2155
- Heating oil increased 0.0255 USD/GAL or 1.12% to 2.2926
The above data was collected around 13:28 EST on Monday
- Top commodity gainers: Rubber (2.73%) and Natural Gas (8.15%), Methanol (6.08%) and Corn (2.42%)
- Top commodity losers: Aluminum (-1.12%), Sugar (-1.88%), Cocoa (-1.58%), and Tin (-5.02%)
The above data was collected around 13:30 EST on Monday.
Japan 0.06%(+1bp), US 2’s 0.2820%(+0.01%), US 10’s 1.4768%(+2.42bps); US 30’s 1.9930%(+0.01%),Bunds -0.2230% (+0.4bp), France 0.1210% (+0.8bp), Italy 0.7976% (+1.47bp), Turkey 17.82% (+10bp), Greece 0.8260% (+0.80bp), Portugal 0.337% (+1.50bp); Spain 0.429% (+1.6bp) and UK Gilts 0.959% (+3.7bp).