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Market Talk – October 5, 2021

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Japan’s services sector activity shrank for a 20th straight month in September as the coronavirus pandemic continued to weigh on sentiment, though the pace of decline eased from the sharp contraction seen in August. The government last week ended state of emergency curbs it had imposed to get the health crisis under control, as new cases and deaths came down rapidly last month, and the strain on the medical system eased. The final au Jibun Bank Japan Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to a seasonally adjusted 47.8 from the previous month’s 42.9, slightly better than a 47.4 flash figure.

Demand for digital coins in India is helping to make a region spanning central and southern Asia and Oceania one of the fastest-growing cryptocurrency markets globally, an article published by a research agency highlighted. Chain Analysis, a firm that analyses crypto-based asset classes across the globe, looked at trends over the year to June using a metric that estimates the total cryptocurrency received by a country. Aside from India, the report flagged increased crypto adoption in Pakistan and Vietnam. The share of Indian activity on decentralized finance platforms was 59%, higher than the latter two nations. Regional crypto-related venture capital investment jumped, according to the report


The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today:

  • NIKKEI 225 decreased 622.77 or -2.19% to 27,822.12
  • Shanghai closed
  • Hang Seng increased 67.78 or 0.28% to 24,104.15
  • ASX 200 decreased 30.10 points or -0.41% to 7,248.40
  • Kospi decreased 57.01 points or -1.89% to 2,962.17
  • SENSEX increased 445.56 points or 0.75% to 59,744.88
  • Nifty50 increased 131.05 points or 0.74% to 17,822.30



The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:

  • AUDUSD increased 0.00042 or 0.06% to 0.72928
  • NZDUSD increased 0.0007 or 0.10% to 0.69669
  • USDJPY increased 0.47 or 0.42% to 111.42
  • USDCNY decreased 0.00269 or -0.04% to 6.44715


Precious Metals:

  • Gold decreased 9.82 USD/t oz. or -0.56% to 1,759.68
  • Silver decreased 0.07 USD/t. oz or -0.31% to 22.589


Some economic news from last night:


Services PMI (Sep) increased from 42.9 to 47.8

Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Sep) increased from -0.3% to 0.1%

Tokyo CPI (YoY) (Sep) increased from -0.4% to 0.3%

CPI Tokyo Ex Food and Energy (MoM) (Sep) decreased from 0.1% to -0.2%


AIG Construction Index (Sep) increased from 38.4 to 53.3

ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) decreased from -2.7% to -2.8%

Exports (MoM) (Aug) decreased from 5% to 4%

Imports (MoM) (Aug) decreased from 3% to -1%

Retail Sales (MoM) increased from -2.7% to -1.7%

Trade Balance (Aug) increased from 12.117B to 15.077B

RBA Interest Rate Decision (Oct) remain the same at 0.10%

New Zealand:

ANZ Commodity Price Index (MoM) increased from -1.6% to 1.5%

NZIER Business Confidence (Q3) decreased from 7% to -11%

NZIER QSBO Capacity Utilization (Q3) increased from 94.9% to 96.1%



Some economic news from today:


Nikkei Services PMI (Sep) decreased from 56.7 to 55.2


Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) decreased from 0.9% to -0.6%

Retail Sales (YoY) (Aug) decreased from 0.2% to -2.8%

New Zealand:

GlobalDairyTrade Price Index decreased from 1.0% to 0.0%



Britain’s economic bounce-back after coronavirus lockdowns is being hampered by problems in supply chains, a jump in inflation, and the risk of a rise in unemployment, complicating the task for policymakers of steering the recovery. Former Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane says Britain is in a VILE era of volatile inflation, low expansion. Financial markets now think the BoE is all but certain to raise interest rates by February but some economists, worried by signs of a flagging recovery, aren’t so sure.

The Ifo institute forecasts the German economy will grow by a stellar 5.1% in 2022, the strongest rate since the economic boom of the early 1990s following Germany’s reunification. The unusually strong growth outlook is mainly due to the recovery and catch-up effects from the COVID-19 pandemic. But under the shiny surface, things look less bright. If Germany wants to avoid falling further behind over the next few years, the coming coalition government must tackle these three challenges: digitization, chip shortages, and an aging society.


The major Europe stock markets had a green day:

  • CAC 40 increased 98.62 points or 1.52% to 6,576.28
  • FTSE 100 increased 66.09 points or 0.94% to 7,077.10
  • DAX 30 increased 157.94 points or 1.05% to 15,194.49


The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:

  • EURUSD decreased 0.0013 or -0.11% to 1.16036
  • GBPUSD increased 0.00309 or 0.23% to 1.36376
  • USDCHF increased 0.00277 or 0.30% to 0.92748


Some economic news from Europe today:


French Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug) increased from 0.5% to 1.0%

French Markit Composite PMI (Sep) decreased from 55.9 to 55.3

French Services PMI (Sep) decreased from 56.3 to 56.2


Spanish Consumer Confidence increased from 91.6 to 98.3

Spanish Services PMI (Sep) decreased from 60.1 to 56.9


Italian Composite PMI (Sep) decreased from 59.1 to 56.6

Italian Services PMI (Sep) decreased from 58.0 to 55.5

Italian Public Deficit (Q2) decreased from 13.0% to 7.6%


German Composite PMI (Sep) decreased from 60.0 to 55.5

German Services PMI (Sep) decreased from 60.8 to 56.2

Euro Zone:

Markit Composite PMI (Sep) decreased from 59.0 to 56.2

Services PMI (Sep) decreased from 59.0 to 56.4

PPI (MoM) (Aug) decreased from 2.5% to 1.1%

PPI (YoY) (Aug) increased from 12.4% to 13.4%


Composite PMI (Sep) increased from 54.8 to 54.9

Services PMI (Sep) increased from 55.0 to 55.4


Chicago Fed President Charles Evans attempted to ease inflation concerns with another temporary tale. Although inflation is at a three-decade high, Evans voiced Chairman Powell’s beliefs that inflation will subside once supply chain bottlenecks are addressed. “It’s really not a monetary policy issue, it’s an infrastructure supply issue at the moment. So I think inflation will be coming down, and I think once it’s come down, we’re still going to be in a low interest rate … world,” Evans told reporters at CNBC. The Fed president did not have an estimated time for when inflation will subside. “I think it could be longer than we were expecting, absolutely, there’s no doubt about it. But I think the continuing increase in these prices is unlikely.”

Merchandise exports from Canada advanced 0.8% in August, despite imports declining 1.4%. This brings Canada’s merchandise trade balance to a surplus of C$1.9 billion compared to C$736 billion in July, as reported by Statistics Canada. Exports came in at C$54.4 billion, marking the third consecutive month of gains. Six of 11 categories saw increases, with energy experiencing the most notable increase at 5.1% (C$120 billion). Following the worldwide chip shortage, imports of motor vehicles experienced an 11.1% decline, assisting in bringing the total number of imports down 3.2% (C$52.5 billion). Aircrafts and other transportation equipment sharply declined by 28.8% as well.

Today’s report by Statistics Canada also indicated that trade with the United States fell in August. Imports from the US declined 6.2% for the month (C$32.3 billion), marking the largest decline since the beginning of 2020. Exports to the US decreased by 0.7% (C$40.8 billion). This brings Canada’s trade surplus with the United States to C$8.6 billion compared to C$6.8 billion in July. As far as currency, the Canadian dollar lost 0.5 US cents to the USD between July and August.

US Market Closings:

  • Dow advanced 311.75 points or 0.92% to 34,314.67
  • S&P 500 advanced 45.26 points or 1.05% to 4,345.72
  • Nasdaq advanced 178.35 points or 1.25% to 14,433.83
  • Russell 2000 advanced 10.89 points or 0.49% to 2,228.36


Canada Market Closings:

  • TSX Composite advanced 131.18 points or 0.65% to 20,183.43
  • TSX 60 advanced 7.55 points or 0.63% to 1,211.39


Brazil Market Closing:

  • Bovespa advanced 64.55 points or 0.06% to 110,457.64




The oil markets had a green day today:


  • Crude Oil increased 1.36 USD/BBL or 1.75% to 78.9800
  • Brent increased 1.47 USD/BBL or 1.81% to 82.7300
  • Natural gas increased 0.444 USD/MMBtu or 7.70% to 6.2100
  • Gasoline increased 0.0475 USD/GAL or 2.06% to 2.3560
  • Heating oil increased 0.0581 USD/GAL or 2.38% to 2.4947


The above data was collected around 12:52 EST on Tuesday


  • Top commodity gainers: Natural Gas (7.70%) and Gasoline (2.06%), Heating Oil (2.38%) and Palm Oil (3.47%)
  • Top commodity losers: Orange Juice (-3.31%), Coffee (-4.22%), Oat (-1.37%), and Wheat (-1.35%)


The above data was collected around 12:55 EST on Tuesday.




Japan 0.065%(+2bp), US 2’s 0.2875%(+0.01%), US 10’s 1.5240%(+4.34bps); US 30’s 2.0903%(+0.05%),Bunds -0.1860% (+3.1bp), France 0.1610% (+2.5bp), Italy 0.8622% (+3.43bp), Turkey 17.83% (+13bp), Greece 0.8720% (+1.8bp), Portugal 0.366% (+2.90bp); Spain 0.468% (+3.02bp) and UK Gilts 1.095% (+8.4bp).