Market Talk – October 31, 2022

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ASIA:

Officials in Chinese cities and provinces across the country are pulling no punches in stamping out sporadic COVID-19 outbreaks as winter nears, quickly closing venues and enforcing longer temporary lockdowns on millions of people. Cases in mainland China hit 2,898 on Sunday, topping 2,000 for a second straight day and pressuring the country’s controversial zero-COVID policy, which has hamstrung the economy and exasperated its citizens. Total cases in Guangzhou rose to 1,110 from Oct. 24-30 from 402 in the previous seven-day period. The threat of a major lockdown would rattle the city and harken back to the nightmarish two-month lockdown Shanghai experienced a few months ago. On Monday, Shanghai Disney Resort said it closed the entire resort from Oct. 31 due to COVID prevention measures in the city.

 

The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today:

  • NIKKEI 225 increased 482.26 points or 1.78% to 27,587.46
  • Shanghai decreased 22.44 points or -0.77% to 2,893.48
  • Hang Seng decreased 176.04 points or -1.18% to 14,687.02
  • Kospi increased 25.21 points or 1.11% to 2,293.61
  • ASX 200 increased 77.80 points or 1.15% to 6,863.50
  • SENSEX increased 786.74 points or 1.31% to 60,746.59
  • Nifty50 increased 225.40 points or 1.27% to 18,012.20

 

The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:

  • AUDUSD decreased 0.00215 or -0.34% to 0.63910
  • NZDUSD decreased 0.00013 or -0.02% to 0.58117
  • USDJPY increased 1.234 or 0.84% to 148.699
  • USDCNY increased 0.06626 or 0.91% to 7.33606

 

Precious Metals:

  • Gold decreased 8.90 USD/t oz. or -0.54% to 1,632.86
  • Silver decreased 0.074 USD/t. oz or -0.38% to 19.153

 

Some economic news from last night:

China:

Chinese Composite PMI (Oct) decreased from 50.9 to 49.0

Manufacturing PMI (Oct) decreased from 50.1 to 49.2

Non-Manufacturing PMI (Oct) decreased from 50.6 to 48.7

Japan:

Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep) decreased from 3.4% to -1.6%

Retail Sales (YoY) (Sep) increased from 4.1% to 4.5%

Australia:

Private Sector Credit (MoM) (Sep) decreased from 0.8% to 0.7%

Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) remain the same at 0.6%

 

Some economic news from today:

Hong Kong:

GDP (QoQ) decreased from 1.0% to -2.6%

GDP (YoY) decreased from -1.3% to -4.5%

M3 Money Supply (Sep) decreased from 0.7% to -0.8%

Japan:

Construction Orders (YoY) (Sep) increased from 17.9% to 36.6%

Household Confidence (Oct) decreased from 30.8 to 29.9

Housing Starts (YoY) (Sep) decreased from 4.6% to 1.0%

India:

Federal Fiscal Deficit (Sep) increased from 5,416.01B to 6,198.49B

Infrastructure Output (YoY) (Sep) increased from 3.3% to 7.9%

 

EUROPE/EMEA:

 

The Russian rouble pared early losses to gain ground on Monday in the first session since Moscow said it would suspend its role in the landmark Black Sea grain deal over the weekend. Global food prices climbed on Monday after Russia said it was suspending participation in the U.N.-brokered grain accord for an “indefinite term” after what it said was a major Ukrainian drone attack on its Black Sea fleet in Crimea. The July grain corridor deal, which helped to unlock Ukrainian exports from its southern Black Sea ports, was the most significant diplomatic breakthrough so far in the eight-month-old conflict in Ukraine. Kyiv and the West criticized Russia’s decision to ditch the agreement and analysts warned that this could cause another spike in global food prices.

 

The major Europe stock markets had a mixed day:

  • CAC 40 decreased 6.28 points or -0.10% to 6,266.77
  • FTSE 100 increased 46.86 points or 0.66% to 7,094.53
  • DAX 30 increased 10.41 points or 0.08% to 13,253.74

 

The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:

  • EURUSD decreased 0.00859 or -0.86% to 0.98793
  • GBPUSD decreased 0.01464 or -1.26% to 1.14669
  • USDCHF increased 0.00551 or 0.55% to 1.00161

 

Some economic news from Europe today:

Swiss:

Retail Sales (YoY) (Sep) increased from 2.1% to 3.2%

Germany:

German Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) increased from -1.4% to 0.9%

Euro Zone:

CPI (YoY) (Oct) increased from 9.9% to 10.7%

CPI (MoM) increased from 1.2% to 1.5%

Core CPI (YoY) increased from 4.8% to 5.0%

GDP (YoY) decreased from 4.3% to 2.1%

GDP (QoQ) decreased from 0.8% to 0.2%

 

US/AMERICAS:

Homebuilders in the US are not optimistic about next year after. Housing starts fell 19% YoY in September, with permits falling an 17%. Homebuilders experienced two very lucrative years of earnings after house prices soared 40% or more. Rising rates couples with inflation is curbing demand. One of the largest homebuilders in America, Pulegroup, reported a 15% cancelation rate in Q2, followed by 24% in Q3.

US Market Closings:

  • Dow¬†declined 128.85 points or -0.39% to 32,732.95
  • S&P 500¬†declined 29.08 points or -0.75% to 3,807.3
  • Nasdaq¬†declined 114.31 points or -1.03% to 10,792.67
  • Russell 2000¬†declined -0.06 of a point or 0% to 1,846.86

 

Canada Market Closings:

  • TSX Composite¬†declined 45.05 points or -0.23% to 19,426.14
  • TSX 60¬†declined 2.82 points or -0.24% to 1,177.01

 

Brazil Market Closing:

  • Bovespa¬†advanced 1,498.03 points or 1.31% to 116,037.08

 

ENERGY:

 

The oil markets had a mixed day today:

 

  • Crude Oil decreased 1.903 USD/BBL or -2.17% to 85.997
  • Brent decreased 3.651 USD/BBL or -3.81% to 92.119
  • Natural gas increased 0.6194 USD/MMBtu or 10.90% to 6.3034
  • Gasoline decreased 0.1030 USD/GAL or -3.54% to 2.8036
  • Heating oil decreased 0.1693 USD/GAL or -3.72% to 4.3805

 

The above data was collected around 16:27 EST on Monday                

 

  • Top commodity gainers: Natural Gas (10.90%), Wheat (6.39%), Coffee (4.65%) and Oat (5.40%)
  • Top commodity losers: Coal (-7.38%), Brent (-3.81%), Zinc (-5.07%) and Heating Oil (-3.72%)

 

The above data was collected around 16:34 EST on Monday

 

 

BONDS:

 

Japan 0.240%(-0.5bp), US 2’s 4.49% (+0.071%), US 10’s 4.0582% (+4.82bps); US 30’s 4.17% (+0.040%), Bunds 2.148% (+6.2bp), France 2.686% (+8bp), Italy 4.306% (+14.5bp), Turkey 10.99% (-26p), Greece 4.59% (+15.5bp), Portugal 3.165% (+8.6bp); Spain 3.255% (+10.4bp) and UK Gilts 3.528% (+3.2bp).