Posted Oct 31, 2017 by Martin Armstrong
A slow but steady day in Asian equity markets, but happy in the knowledge that the BOJ left almost everything unchanged. The Nikkei closed almost unchanged but has set an impressive two month rally. At above 22k the index closes at a 21 year high, but after the weak opening it took all day to recover unchanged. The Yen was a little weaker (0.5%) as it challenges the 114 handle again. The Australian ASX did open better but drifted throughout the day eventually closing on its low. However, irrespective of todays price action it has been a constructive month for the All Ords with a gain of around 3%. Shanghai managed to shake-off the PMI miss (51.6 against market expectations of 52), with Services also declining. In Hong Kong the Hang Seng we closed down -0.3% with bank stocks weighing on the market.
Although we finished the month on a positive note, volumes were low. This usually is the case when a large index is closed and with Germany on a national holiday the absence of the DAX was noticeable. Spain’s IBEX helped sentiment though with a daily gain of +0.7%. The market is valuing ‘no news’ as positive these days, so with the demand for yield ever present any quiet day is good for low grade paper. This is present when comparing global credits to the states where it is not uncommon to find BBB credits trading even yield with US treasuries. The CAC managed a small +0.2% gain whilst the largest bank (BNP Paribas) recorded as the worst performing European bank stock today (-2.7%). UK’s FTSE managed a small positive for the day but an +0.5% in the currency helped international investors as traders continue to price in a BOE move on Thursday. Talk is that BREXIT discussions may be progressing better than many had expected but we have yet to hear details.
A slow but steady day for all US indices to close another strong month. The DOW ended the month over 4% higher, 3.5% for NASDAQ and the S+P just over 2%. It has been mostly the large tech stocks that have dragged markets higher all month, but with the USD lending a hand to their performance this has made all the difference. Ahead of the BOE we will hear from the FED but no change is the anticipated call. Fed Fund futures are pricing-in almost a zero chance of any move. The markets are still digesting the idea that any tax reforms could be gradual but also we have payrolls to look forward to on Friday.
2’s closed 1.60% (+3bp), 10’s 2.37% (u/c), 30’s 2.87% (-1bp), Bunds 0.36% (u/c), France 0.75% (-1bp), Italy 1.81% (-2bp), Greece 5.39% (-6bp), Turkey 11.50% (-1bp), Portugal 2.04% (u/c), Spain 1.45% (-3bp) and Gilts 1.33% (u/c).