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Market Talk – October 29, 2021

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Japan’s economy likely shrank over the summer as a Covid surge and supply bottlenecks slammed an already feeble recovery, according to estimates by several economists just two days before the nation goes to the polls. The economy likely contracted by 1.1% on an annualized basis in the three months to September, Yoshiki Shinke, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life wrote in a report Friday. Ryutaro Kono at BNP Paribas sees a fall of 1.5%. Taro Saito at NLI Research estimates the economy shrank 0.9%. The output data came just a day after the Bank of Japan lowered its growth forecast for the year ending March, citing supply constraints.


The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today:

  • NIKKEI 225 increased 72.60 or 0.25% to 28,892.69
  • Shanghai increased 28.92 or 0.82% to 3,547.34
  • Hang Seng decreased 178.49 points or -0.70% to 25,377.24
  • ASX 200 decreased 106.70 points or -1.44 to 7,323.70
  • Kospi decreased 38.87 points or -1.29% to 2,970.68
  • SENSEX decreased 677.77 points or -1.13% to 59,306.93
  • Nifty50 decreased 185.60 points or -1.04% to 17,671.65



The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:

  • AUDUSD decreased 0.00160 or -0.21% to 0.75172
  • NZDUSD decreased 0.00420 or -0.58% to 0.71555
  • USDJPY increased 0.42 or 0.37% to 113.99
  • USDCNY increased 0.02150 or 0.34% to 6.40939


Precious Metals:

  • Gold decreased 16.55 USD/t oz. or -0.92% to 1,782.07
  • Silver decreased 0.239 USD/t. oz or -0.99% to 23.861


Some economic news from last night:


Jobs/applications ratio (Sep) increased from 1.14 to 1.16

Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Oct) remain the same at 0.1%

Tokyo CPI (YoY) (Oct) decreased from 0.3% to 0.1%

CPI Tokyo Ex Food and Energy (MoM) (Oct) remain the same at -0.2%

Unemployment Rate (Sep) remain the same at 2.8%

Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep) decreased from -3.6% to -5.4%

Industrial Production forecast 1m ahead (MoM) (Oct) increased from 0.2% to 6.4%

Industrial Production forecast 2m ahead (MoM) (Nov) decreased from 6.8% to 5.7%

South Korea:

Manufacturing BSI Index (Nov) decreased from 92 to 87

Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep) decreased from -0.7% to -0.8%

Industrial Production (YoY) (Sep) decreased from 9.7% to -1.8%

Retail Sales (MoM) increased from -0.8% to 2.5%

Service Sector Output (MoM) (Sep) increased from -0.8% to 1.3%


Housing Credit (Sep) remain the same at 0.6%

PPI (QoQ) (Q3) increased from 0.7% to 1.1%

PPI (YoY) (Q3) increased from 2.2% to 2.9%

Private Sector Credit (MoM) (Sep) remain the same at 0.6%

Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) increased from -1.7% to 1.3%


Unemployment Rate decreased from 2.7% to 2.6%


Some economic news from today:


Federal Fiscal Deficit (Sep) increased from 4,680.09B to 5,268.51B

FX Reserves, USD decreased from 641.01B to 640.10B

Infrastructure Output (YoY) (Sep) decreased from 11.5% to 4.4%


Construction Orders (YoY) (Sep) increased from -2.0% to 27.3%

Household Confidence (Oct) increased from 37.8 to 39.2

Housing Starts (YoY) (Sep) decreased from 7.5% to 4.3%

Hong Kong:

M3 Money Supply (Sep) increased from -3.0% to -1.9%


Business Expectations (Q4) decreased from 20.00 to 16.00


Foreign Direct Investment (YoY) decreased from 19.60% to -2.70%




The Bank of England will crackdown from next year on banks and insurers that do not hold enough capital to cover risks from climate change while also considering bespoke safety buffers. This work will help determine whether changes to the design, use, or calibration of the regulatory capital framework may also be needed to ensure resilience against these risks,” the BoE said in a statement. It said it would give an update in 2022 after more research and a climate change and capital requirement conference.

The major Europe stock markets had a mixed day:

  • CAC 40 increased 26.12 points or 0.38% to 6,830.34
  • FTSE 100 decreased 11.90 points or -0.16% to 7,237.57
  • DAX 30 decreased 7.56 points or -0.05% to 15,688.77



The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:

  • EURUSD decreased 0.01270 or -1.08% to 1.15554
  • GBPUSD decreased 0.01060 or -0.77% to 1.36930
  • USDCHF increased 0.00370 or 0.41% to 0.91580


Some economic news from Europe today:


French Consumer Spending (MoM) (Sep) decreased from 0.7% to -0.2%

French GDP (QoQ) (Q3) increased from 1.3% to 3.0%

French CPI (MoM) increased from -0.2% to 0.4%

French CPI (YoY) increased from 2.2% to 2.6%

French HICP (MoM) increased from -0.2% to 0.5%

French HICP (YoY) increased from 2.7% to 3.2%


Credit Indicator (YoY) (Sep) remain the same at 5.3%

Central Bank Currency Purchase (Nov) increased from -1,700.0M to -700.0M

Unemployment Change (Oct) decreased from 89.74K to 85.28K

Unemployment Rate n.s.a. (Oct) decreased from 2.40% to 2.20%


KOF Leading Indicators (Oct) increased from 110.0 to 110.7


Spanish Current account (Aug) decreased from 2.49B to 0.98B

Spanish GDP (YoY) (Q3) decreased from 17.5% to 2.7%

Spanish GDP (QoQ) (Q3) increased from 1.1% to 2.0%

Spanish Retail Sales (YoY) (Sep) increased from -0.7% to -0.1%


German GDP (YoY) (Q3) decreased from 10.3% to 2.5%

German GDP (QoQ) (Q3) decreased from 1.9% to 1.8%


Italian GDP (YoY) (Q3) decreased from 17.0% to 3.8%

Italian GDP (QoQ) (Q3) decreased from 2.7% to 2.6%

Italian CPI (MoM) (Oct) increased from -0.2% to 0.6%

Italian CPI (YoY) (Oct) increased from 2.5% to 2.9%

Italian HICP (MoM) (Oct) decreased from 1.3% to 0.8%

Italian HICP (YoY) (Oct) increased from 2.9% to 3.1%


BoE Consumer Credit (Sep) decreased from 0.526B to 0.231B

M4 Money Supply (MoM) (Sep) increased from 0.5% to 0.6%

Mortgage Approvals (Sep) decreased from 74.21K to 72.65K

Mortgage Lending (Sep) increased from 4.44B to 9.52B

Net Lending to Individuals increased from 5.0B to 9.8B

Euro Zone:

CPI (YoY) (Oct) increased from 3.4% to 4.1%

CPI (MoM) increased from 0.5% to 0.8%

CPI, n.s.a (Oct) increased from 108.49 to 109.41

GDP (QoQ) increased from 2.1% to 2.2%

GDP (YoY) decreased from 14.2% to 3.7%

HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) (Oct) increased from 1.9% to 2.1%

HICP ex Energy and Food (MoM) decreased from 0.4% to 0.3%


Inflation in the US hit a 30-year high in September. The personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0,3% last month, marking a 4.4% YoY advancement and the most rapid pace since January 1991. Likewise, the PCE reading rose 0.2%, marking the highest level since May 1991. Despite higher prices, consumer spending roe 0.4%, and personal income decreased 1% last month, over double analysts’ expectations. It is unknown the Fed’s exact target for implementing additional tools to combat inflation.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has maintained her stance that inflation will wane during the second half of 2022. “Year-over-year inflation remains high and will for some time simply because of what’s already happened in the first months of the year,” Yellen told CNBC from Rome and the G-20 summit. “But monthly rates I believe will come down in the second half of the year. I think we’ll see a return to levels close to 2%.”

Mexico reported its first quarterly decline since the pandemic began at 0.2% during Q3, according to INEGI statistical data. Mexico’s central bank maintains that the country will experience a GDP growth of 6.3% this year. On a yearly basis, the economy has already risen 4.6% in unadjusted terms.

Microsoft is the most valuable company on the US exchanges after surpassing a market cap of $2.44 trillion. This comes on the heels of Apple reporting supply chain disruptions that are preventing full-scale capacity.

US Market Closings:

  • Dow advanced 89.08 points or 0.25% to 35,819.56
  • S&P 500 advanced 8.96 points or 0.19% to 4,606.38
  • Nasdaq advanced 50.27 points or 0.33% to 15,498.39
  • Russell 2000 declined -0.79 of a point or -0.03% 2,297.19


Canada Market Closings:

  • TSX Composite declined 160.46 points or -0.76% to 21,037.07
  • TSX 60 declined 8.99 points or -2.09% to 103,500.71


Brazil Market Closing:

  • Bovespa declined 2,204.25 points or -2.09% to 103,500.71





The oil markets had a mixed day today:


  • Crude Oil increased 0.85 USD/BBL or 1.03% to 83.6600
  • Brent increased 0.05 USD/BBL or 0.06% to 84.3700
  • Natural gas decreased 0.366 USD/MMBtu or -6.33% to 5.4160
  • Gasoline increased 0.0333 USD/GAL or 1.37% to 2.4683
  • Heating oil decreased 0.0150 USD/GAL or -0.60% to 2.5015


The above data was collected around 14:25 EST on Friday


  • Top commodity gainers: Canola (3.51%) and Methanol (7.02%), Steel (3.06%) and Orange Juice (5.79%)
  • Top commodity losers: Sugar (-1.78%), Copper (-1.19%), Natural Gas (-6.33%), and Lumber (-4.09%)



The above data was collected around 14:35 EST on Friday





Japan 0.096%(+0.7bp), US 2’s 0.4931% (+0.00%), US 10’s 1.5662%(-1.2bps); US 30’s 1.9472%(

-0.03%), Bunds -0.106% (+4.4bp), France 0.2670% (+7bp), Italy 1.127% (+12.51bp), Turkey 19.08% (-6bp), Greece 1.332% (+27.2bp), Portugal 0.55% (+14.1bp); Spain 0.617% (+9.77bp) and UK Gilts 1.03% (+2.2bp).