Market Talk – October 27, 2020

Posted Oct 27, 2020 by Martin Armstrong |

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ASIA:

China appears to have comprehensively lost the international battle for hearts and minds over its handling of coronavirus with most people believing it was responsible for the start of the outbreak and was not transparent about the problem at the outset. The findings come from the YouGov-Cambridge Globalism Project, a survey of 26,000 people in 25 countries, designed with the Guardian. The survey shows that in every country surveyed, apart from China, the public overwhelmingly believes that coronavirus was first detected in China. Nigeria had the highest rate (98%), closely followed by Greece and South Africa (97%) and Spain (96%). The countries with the lowest rates, apart from China, were Saudi Arabia, where 83% thought China was responsible, and the US (84%). By contrast, only 52% of respondents in China believe that coronavirus was first detected in the country, and just over one in 10 (12%) of respondents in China said they did not know when asked in which country the virus was first detected. Just under a third of these respondents believe the virus was first detected in the US.

India will sign a military agreement with the United States for sharing of sensitive satellite data, India’s defence ministry said on Monday, as the two sides began a top-level security dialogue aimed at countering China’s growing power in the region. India’s defence ministry also confirmed US Defense Secretary Mark Esper and his Indian counterpart Rajnath Singh also discussed the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement on Geospatial Cooperation that is ready for signing. The accord would provide India with access to a range of topographical, nautical and aeronautical data that is considered vital for targeting of missiles and armed drones.

Ethanol production and consumption in India, the world’s third largest fuel market, is expected to increase quickly in coming years as the government seems keen to push the industry to higher blend rates, Reuters reported. Indian Sugar Millers Association (ISMA) said plants in the country are expected to boost ethanol production from 1.9 billion liters (0.5 billion gallons) in 2020 to 3 billion liters in 2021 on the way to meet a government target of adding 10% of ethanol to gasoline by 2022. That would require an ethanol volume of 5.5 billion liters.

The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today:

NIKKEI 225 decreased 8.54 points or -0.04% to 23,485.80
Shanghai increased 3.20 points or 0.10% to 3,254.32
Hang Seng decreased 131.59 points or -0.53% to 24,787.19
ASX 200 decreased 104.60 points or -1.70% to 6,051.00
Kospi decreased 13.07 points or -0.56% to 2,330.84
SENSEX increased 376.60 points or 0.94% to 40,522.10
Nifty50 increased 121.65 points or 1.03% to 11,889.40

The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:

AUDUSD increased 0.00131 or 0.18% to 0.71341
NZDUSD increased 0.00309 or 0.46% to 0.67096
USDJPY decreased 0.35 or -0.33% to 104.49
USDCNY increased 0.01038 or 0.15% to 6.70964

Precious Metals:

Gold increased 5.76 USD/t oz. or 0.30% to 1,907.45
Silver increased 0.085 USD/t. oz or 0.35%% to 24.405

Some economic news from last night:

China:

Chinese Industrial profit (YoY) (Sep) decreased from 19.10% to 10.10%

Chinese Industrial profit YTD (Sep) increased from -4.4% to -2.4%

South Korea:

GDP (QoQ) (Q3) increased from -3.2% to 1.9%

GDP (YoY) (Q3) increased from -2.7% to -1.3%

New Zealand:

Exports (Sep) decreased from 4.41B to 4.01B

Imports (Sep) increased from 4.69B to 5.02B

Trade Balance (YoY) (Sep) increased from 1,420M to 1,710M

Trade Balance (MoM) (Sep) decreased from -282M to -1,017M

Some economic news from today:

Japan:

BoJ Core CPI (YoY) decreased from 0.0% to -0.1%

Hong Kong:

Trade Balance increased from -14.6B to -12.7B

Exports (MoM) (Sep) increased from -2.3% to 9.1%

Imports (MoM) (Sep) increased from -5.7% to 3.4%

Indonesia:

M2 Money Supply (YoY) (Sep) decreased from 13.30% to 12.30%

EUROPE/ EMEA:

A study by Sage and Capital Economics has found that the UK economy could receive a boost worth £145 billion due to SMEs’ digital investment. In addition to providing substantial benefit to the UK economy, investment in tech could provide £325 billion in additional revenue and support up to 2.7 million jobs, as customer and employee engagement is bolstered by digitization. 67% of SMEs, meanwhile, expressed wishes to further tech investment going forward, and nearly three-quarters (72%) believe that further investment now into key areas of technology would deliver performance improvements and support recovery.

France’s economy could shrink again in the final three months of this year as a result of the widespread curfews imposed by the government to rein in a second wave of the coronavirus, economy minister Bruno Le Maire has warned. He also added that the risk of negative growth at the year-end had been factored into the government’s overall forecast for a contraction in gross domestic product for the whole of 2020. Last week on Thursday, Jean Castex, the prime minister, said that curfews initially planned for nine cities including Paris would be extended to cover as many as 54 different departments across the country, affecting 46 million people in all.

The major Europe stock markets had a negative day today:

CAC 40 decreased 85.46 points or -1.77% to 4,730.66
FTSE 100 decreased 63.02 points, or -1.09% to 5,728.99
DAX 30 decreased 113.61 points or -0.93% to 12,063.57

The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:

EURUSD increased 0.00011 or 0.01% to 1.18104
GBPUSD increased 0.00379 or 0.29% to 1.30537
USDCHF decreased 0.0002 or -0.02% to 0.90782

Some economic news from Europe today:

France:

French PPI (MoM) (Sep) increased from 0.1% to 0.2%

France Jobseekers Total decreased from 3,621.5K to 3,606.3K

Spain:

Spanish Unemployment Rate (Q3) increased from 15.33% to 16.26%

UK:

CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Oct) decreased from 11 to -23

Euro Zone:

M3 Money Supply (YoY) (Sep) increased from 9.5% to 10.4%

Loans to Non Financial Corporations (Sep) remain the same at 7.1%

Private Sector Loans (YoY) increased from 3.0% to 3.1%

US/AMERICAS:

Amy Coney Barrett was sworn in as a US Supreme Court Justice during a Monday night ceremony. The Senate voted 52-48 within party lines, with only one Republican Senator (Susan Collins – Maine) voting against. Although the Democrats were insistent that the next judge be appointed after the election, Barrett reaffirmed that she will be unbiased in her position. “A judge declares independence not only from Congress and the president, but also from the private beliefs that might otherwise move her,” Barrett stated.

Another US Postal Service worker was charged with destroying mail-in ballots ahead of the 2020 US presidential election. The authorities were notified after 111 general election absentee ballots were found in the dumpster. The postal worker now faces up to five years imprisonment and a $250,000 fine. Special Agent Scott Balfour told the Associated Press that such incidents are “exceedingly rare,” but mail-in voters are encouraged to track the status of their ballot online.

SpaceX announced plans to begin beta testing its groundbreaking Starlink satellite internet service. Unlike traditional internet services, Starlink is operated by thousands of satellites orbiting through space. The company warned users to “lower your initial expectations” as internet speeds may vary between 50Mb/s to 150 Mb/s with potential periods of no connectivity at all. The $10 billion project, once officially launched, will cost users $99 per month after an initial $499 registration fee. Starlink has the potential to compete or supersede 5G networks. SpaceX founder Elon Musk said he is a “huge fan of retail investors” and plans to launch an IPO once the service is stabilized in a few years.

New York Mayor Bill de Blasio is asking resident not to visit their relatives from out of state over the holidays. Coronavirus on the spot testing sites will be established in the LaGuardia Airport and John F. Kennedy International Airport. Furthermore, de Blasio is asking most visitors from out of state to adhere to the 14-day quarantine policy.

US Market Closings:

Dow declined 222.19 points or -0.8% to 27,463.19
S&P 500 declined 10.29 points or -0.3% to 3,390.68
Nasdaq advanced 72.41 points or 0.64% to 11,431.35
Russell 2000 declined 14.5 points or -0.9% to 1,590.71

Canada Market Closings:

TSX Composite declined 58.61 points or -0.36% to 16,020.94
TSX 60 declined 5.1 points or -0.53% to 954.81

Brazil Market Closings:

Bovespa declined 1,411.42 points or -1.4% to 99,605.54

ENERGY:

The oil markets had a green day today:

Crude Oil increased 0.67 USD/BBL or 1.74% to 39.2300
Brent increased 0.52 USD/BBL or 1.29% to 40.9800
Natural gas increased 0.007 USD/MMBtu or 0.23% to 3.0310
Gasoline increased 0.0204 USD/GAL or 1.84% to 1.1320
Heating oil increased 0.0286 USD/GAL or 2.55% to 1.1504
Top commodity gainers: Heating Oil (2.55%), Gasoline (1.84%), Crude Oil (1.74%), and Rice (1.55%)
Top commodity losers: Bitumen (-1.46%), Ethanol (-1.08%), Cocoa (-1.80%), and Canola (-1.05%)

The above data was collected around 16:38 EST on Tuesday.

BONDS:

Japan 0.03%(-0bp), US 2’s 0.15% (+0bps), US 10’s 0.77%(-3bps);US 30’s 1.56%(-3bps), Bunds -0.58% (-1bp), France -0.33% (-4bp), Italy 0.70% (-3bp), Turkey 14.06% (+18bp), Greece 0.93% (+1bp), Portugal 0.14% (-3bp), Spain 0.18% (+5bp) and UK Gilts 0.24% (-4bp).