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Market Talk – October 20, 2021

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The unfolding crisis in real estate in China is emerging as one of Beijing’s toughest challenges in the coming year. Real estate-related activities including, cement and steel production, registered steep contractions last month, as did property sales and new construction projects. That has led to reduced property investment, which contracted in September for the first time since March 2020. On Wednesday, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that average housing prices in 70 major cities dropped slightly in October from the previous month. Goldman Sachs estimated the month-on-month drop at an annualized rate of 0.5%, the first decline since April 2015. The country’s GDP grew at its slowest pace in a year last quarter, expanding just 4.9% from a year earlier. Compared to the prior quarter, the economy grew a mere 0.2% in the July-to-September period — one of the weakest quarters since China started releasing such records in 2011.

Japan’s export growth weakened to its slowest in seven months in September, while a surge in imports added to worries that pandemic-led global supply chain snags could derail the country’s fragile economic recovery. The trade data will be among factors the Bank of Japan will scrutinize when it releases fresh quarterly growth and inflation projections at its policy meeting later this month. Exports rose 13.0% in September from a year earlier, Ministry of Finance data showed on Wednesday, compared with a median market forecast for an 11.0% rise, as car shipments tumbled 40.3%, the first drop in seven months.


The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today:

  • NIKKEI 225 increased 40.03 or 0.14% to 29,255.55
  • Shanghai decreased 6.15 or -0.17% to 3,587.00
  • Hang Seng increased 348.81 points or 1.35% to 26,136.02
  • ASX 200 increased 38.80 points or 0.53% to 7,413.70
  • Kospi decreased 15.91 points or -0.53% to 3,013.13
  • SENSEX decreased 456.09 points or -0.74% to 61,259.96
  • Nifty50 decreased 152.15 points or -0.83% to 18,266.60



The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:

  • AUDUSD increased 0.00344 or 0.46% to 0.75080
  • NZDUSD increased 0.00437 or 0.61% to 0.71976
  • USDJPY decreased 0.33 or -0.29% to 114.20
  • USDCNY increased 0.01855 or 0.29% to 6.39323


Precious Metals:

  • Gold increased 15.3 USD/t oz. or 0.86% to 1,784.17
  • Silver increased 0.7 USD/t. oz or 2.96% to 24.350


Some economic news from last night:


House Prices (YoY) (Sep) decreased from 4.2% to 3.8%

PBoC Loan Prime Rate remain the same at 3.85%

FDI (Sep) decreased from 22.30% to 19.60%


Adjusted Trade Balance decreased from -0.34T to -0.62T

Exports (YoY) (Sep) decreased from 26.2% to 13.0%

Imports (YoY) (Sep) decreased from 44.7% to 38.6%

Trade Balance (Sep) increased from -637.2B to -622.8B


MI Leading Index (MoM) increased from -0.3% to 0.0%


No economic news from today:



French President Emmanuel Macron has announced plans to follow in Germany’s footsteps by making digital therapeutics available on prescription through the statutory health system. Speaking at the HealthTech Innovation Days (HTID) event in Paris earlier this month, French President Emmanuel Macron announced: “We are also creating an immediate access procedure for market access for innovative products, the same way as in Germany. I’m very direct with you – we will just replicate what works in Germany.” The DiGA initiative, created under the 2019 Digital Healthcare Act (DVG), means doctors can prescribe apps to the 73 million German citizens covered by public health, with costs reimbursed through health insurance.

Weekend commentary from Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey served to highlight just how close we could be to a rate hike at Threadneedle Street. With markets now pricing in a 82% chance of a 25 basis point (bp) rate rise in November, markets are increasingly steadfast in their view that the BoE will move next month. Inflation will be a critical factor for the interest rate outlook, with the latest UK consumer price index (CPI) figure bringing a welcome decline for both headline and core CPI. The prospect of a protracted push higher in rates will be driven by continued above-target inflation, and thus any sign that CPI has topped out could weaken the case for multiple hikes.

The major Europe stock markets had a green day:

  • CAC 40 increased 35.76 points or 0.54% to 6,705.61
  • FTSE 100 increased 5.57 points or 0.08% to 7,223.10
  • DAX 30 increased 7.09 points or 0.05% to 15,522.92



The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:

  • EURUSD increased 0.00217 or 0.19% to 1.16530
  • GBPUSD increased 0.00334 or 0.24% to 1.38252
  • USDCHF decreased 0.0041 or -0.44% to 0.91898


Some economic news from Europe today:


Core CPI MoM (MoM) (Sep) decreased from 0.7% to 0.4%

Core CPI (YoY) (Sep) decreased from 3.1% to 2.9%

Core PPI Output (MoM) (Sep) decreased from 0.9% to 0.5%

Core PPI Output (YoY) (Sep) increased from 5.4% to 5.9%

Core RPI (MoM) (Sep) decreased from 0.7% to 0.4%

Core RPI (YoY) (Sep) increased from 4.9% to 5.0%

CPI (YoY) (Sep) decreased from 3.2% to 3.1%

CPI (MoM) (Sep) decreased from 0.7% to 0.3%

CPI, n.s.a (Sep) increased from 112.10 to 112.40

PPI Input (YoY) (Sep) increased from 11.2% to 11.4%

PPI Input (MoM) (Sep) decreased from 0.5% to 0.4%

PPI Output (YoY) (Sep) increased from 6.0% to 6.7%

PPI Output (MoM) (Sep) decreased from 0.7% to 0.5%

RPI (YoY) (Sep) increased from 4.8% to 4.9%

RPI (MoM) (Sep) decreased from 0.6% to 0.4%



German PPI (MoM) (Sep) increased from 1.5% to 2.3%

German PPI (YoY) (Sep) increased from 12.0% to 14.2%


Euro Zone:

Current Account (Aug) decreased from 21.6B to 13.4B

Current Account n.s.a. (Aug) decreased from 30.2B to 17.6B

Core CPI (MoM) (Sep) increased from 0.4% to 0.5%

Core CPI (YoY) (Sep) increased from 1.6% to 1.9%

CPI (YoY) (Sep) increased from 3.0% to 3.4%

CPI (MoM) (Sep) increased from 0.4% to 0.5%

CPI ex Tobacco (YoY) (Sep) increased from 3.0% to 3.4%

CPI ex Tobacco (MoM) (Sep) increased from 0.4% to 0.5%

HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) (Sep) increased from 1.6% to 1.9%

HICP ex Energy and Food (MoM) (Sep) increased from 0.2% to 0.4%


At a time when bank stocks are seeing notable gains, overdraft fees have reached an all-time high. Checking and ATM fees are up to $33.58 compared to $33.47 last year, according to This is the third consecutive year where overdraft fees have risen. Senator Elizabeth Warren recently debated JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon to toe on the issue. Warren claims the issue disproportionately preys on low net worth Americans, while Dimon said an overdraft fee is less costly than a bounced check. Dimon did hint that he would potentially consider changing overdraft policy while speaking with Fox Business. Bankrate’s study also found that the average monthly service fee for interest checking accounts is up $16.35 or 5.5% from last year, while the average balance fee jumped 31%. The average account balance reached a record high of $9,896.81 compared to last year’s record of $7,550.42. Only 12% of banks offering interest checking accounts in the US are willing to waive annual fees if users select the direct deposit option. At least 80% of interest checking accounts do require a balance minimum.

Canada’s CPI rose 4.4% YoY in September, according to a report released by Statistics Canada today. This marks the fastest pace of growth since February 2003. Excluding gas, CPI rose 3.5% YoY. At the monthly level, CPI rose 0.2% last month, matching August’s growth. Canada’s monthly CPI has increased for the past nine consecutive months. Prices in every major sector saw gains, with transportation seeing the most notable increase at 9.1%. Shelter prices rose 4.8%, while food prices rose 3.9%. Basic living expenses, such as food, continue to rise. Meat prices spiked 9.5%, the fastest pace since April 2015, while prices on chicken (+10.3%), frozen and fresh beef (+13%), pork (+9.5%), and bacon (+20%) saw large increases as well. As for gasoline, prices increased 32.8% YoY, leading some to ponder whether discontinuing the pipeline was a poor choice.

US Market Closings:

  • Dow advanced 152.03 points or 0.43% to 35,609.34
  • S&P 500 advanced 16.56 points or 0.37% to 4,536.19
  • Nasdaq declined 7.41 points or -0.05% to 15,121.68
  • Russell 2000 advanced 13.85 points or 0.61% to 2,289.77


Canada Market Closings:

  • TSX Composite advanced 101.2 points or 0.48% to 21,188.19
  • TSX 60 advanced 6.61 points or 0.52% to 1,272.92


Brazil Market Closing:

  • Bovespa advanced 113.67 points or 0.1% to 110,786.81





The oil markets had a green day today:


  • Crude Oil increased 0.62 USD/BBL or 0.75% to 83.5800
  • Brent increased 0.43 USD/BBL or 0.51% to 85.5100
  • Natural gas increased 0.074 USD/MMBtu or 1.45% to 5.1620
  • Gasoline increased 0.0178 USD/GAL or 0.72% to 2.4933
  • Heating oil increased 0.0231 USD/GAL or 0.90% to 2.5838


The above data was collected around 13:38 EST on Wednesday


  • Top commodity gainers: Silver (2.96%) and Palm Oil (2.47%), Cotton (2.36%) and Zinc (3.50%)
  • Top commodity losers: Bitumen (-4.37%), Methanol (-4.18%), Cocoa (-2.03%), and Lumber (-2.69%)


The above data was collected around 13:45 EST on Wednesday




Japan 0.099%(+1bp), US 2’s 0.3773%(-0.02%), US 10’s 1.6382%(-0.25bps); US 30’s 2.1235%(

+0.03%),Bunds -0.119% (-0.5bp), France 0.2160% (-1.2bp), Italy 0.9177% (-3.04bp), Turkey 19.25% (+20bp), Greece 0.9970% (-1.3bp), Portugal 0.406% (-0.3bp); Spain 0.524% (-1.13bp) and UK Gilts 1.151% (-1.7bp).