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Market Talk – October 13, 2021

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India’s economy, which contracted by 7.3 percent due to the Covid-19 pandemic, is expected to grow by 9.5 percent in 2021 and 8.5 percent in 2022, according to latest projections released by the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday. India’s growth projection released by the latest World Economic Outlook remains unchanged from its previous WEO (World Economic Outlook) update of July this summer. Still, it is a three-percentage point, and 1.6 percentage point drop from its April projections.


China, on the other hand, the IMF said is projected to grow at 8 percent in 2021 and 5.6 percent in 2022. According to the latest WEO update, released ahead of the annual meeting of the IMF and the World Bank, the world economy is expected to grow at a rate of 5.9 percent in 2021 and 4.9 percent in 2022.


The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today:

  • NIKKEI 225 decreased 90.33 or -0.32% to 28,140.28
  • Shanghai increased 14.83 or 0.42% to 3,561.76
  • Hang Seng increased 57.75or 0.23% to 25,020.34
  • ASX 200 decreased 8.20 points or -0.11% to 7,272.50
  • Kospi increased 28.03 points or 0.96% to 2,944.41
  • SENSEX increased 452.74 points or 0.75% to 60,737.05
  • Nifty50 increased 169.80 points or 0.94% to 18,161.75



The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:

  • AUDUSD increased 0.00297 or 0.40% to 0.73743
  • NZDUSD increased 0.00280 or 0.41% to 0.69577
  • USDJPY decreased 0.13 or -0.11% to 113.43
  • USDCNY decreased 0.0248 or -0.38% to 6.42855


Precious Metals:

  • Gold increased 31.73 USD/t oz. or 1.80% to 1,791.66
  • Silver increased 0.568 USD/t. oz or 2.52% to 23.101


Some economic news from last night:


Exports (YoY) (Sep) increased from 25.6% to 28.1%

Imports (YoY) (Sep) decreased from 33.1% to 17.6%

Trade Balance (USD) (Sep) increased from 58.34B to 66.76B


Reuters Tankan Index (Oct) decreased from 18 to 16

Core Machinery Orders (MoM) (Aug) decreased from 0.9% to -2.4%

Core Machinery Orders (YoY) (Aug) increased from 11.1% to 17.0%

M3 Money Supply (Sep) increased from 1,995.4T to 1,999.8T

South Korea:

M2 Money supply (Aug) increased from 9.90% to 10.30%

Unemployment Rate (Sep) increased from 2.8% to 3.0%


Westpac Consumer Sentiment (Oct) decreased from 2.0% to -1.5%

HIA New Home Sales (MoM) decreased from 5.8% to 2.3%

New Zealand:

FPI (MoM) (Sep) increased from 0.3% to 0.5%

ANZ Business Confidence (Oct) decreased from -7.2 to -8.6


Some economic news from today:


M2 Money Stock (YoY) (Sep)increased from 8.2% to 8.3%

New Loans (Sep) increased from 1,220.0B to 1,660.0B

Outstanding Loan Growth (YoY) (Sep) decreased from 12.1% to 11.9%

Chinese Total Social Financing (Sep) decreased from 2,960.0B to 2,900.0B



The Bank of England will no longer hold off-the-record briefings between policymakers and individual private sector firms, as scrutiny over the links between central banks and finance grows, Reuters reported. The move, a permanent step aimed at improving the transparency of the BoE’s market intelligence gathering operations, follows growing concern about similar practices at other central banks. Last month, the European Central Bank faced calls to end its closed-door meetings with private firms after its chief economist was reported to have disclosed an unpublished inflation forecast at one such event.


The major Europe stock markets had a green day:

  • CAC 40 increased 49.27 points or 0.75% to 6,597.38
  • FTSE 100 increased 11.59 points or 0.16% to 7,141.82
  • DAX 30 increased 102.51 points or 0.68% to 15,249.38


The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:

  • EURUSD increased 0.00524 or 0.45% to 1.15834
  • GBPUSD increased 0.00555 or 0.41% to 1.36378
  • USDCHF decreased 0.0056 or -0.60% to 0.92491


Some economic news from Europe today:


NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker decreased from 2.9% to 1.5%

Construction Output (MoM) (Aug) increased from -1.0% to -0.2%

U.K. Construction Output (YoY) (Aug) decreased from 13.1% to 10.1%

GDP (MoM) increased from -0.1% to 0.4%

GDP (YoY) decreased from 7.5% to 6.9%

Index of Services decreased from 5.2% to 3.7%

Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug) increased from 0.3% to 0.8%

Industrial Production (YoY) (Aug) decreased from 4.4% to 3.7%

Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Aug) increased from -0.6% to 0.5%

Manufacturing Production (YoY) (Aug) decreased from 6.1% to 4.1%

Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change decreased from 4.2% to 2.9%

Trade Balance (Aug) decreased from -12.71B to -14.93B

Trade Balance Non-EU (Aug) decreased from -6.99B to -8.40B


German CPI (MoM) (Sep) remain the same at 0.0%

German CPI (YoY) (Sep) remain the same at 4.1%

German HICP (MoM) (Sep) remain the same at 0.3%

German HICP (YoY) (Sep) remain the same at 4.1%

Euro Zone:

Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug) decreased from 1.4% to -1.6%

Industrial Production (YoY) (Aug) decreased from 8.0% to 5.1%




A mass resignation was underway in the US this August, as reported by the Labor Department. Over 4.3 million employees have quit their job in August, marking a new high going back to when data began in December 2000. The rate rose 2.9% on a monthly basis after increasing by 242,000. The food and retail sectors saw the most significant losses after the food sector shed 892,000 employees, while retail lost 721,000. The health care sector also saw a significant number of quits after 534,000 people resigned.  Hiring dropped by 659,000 jobs to 10.44 million in August from the month prior. The Job openings and Labor Turnover Survey data runs a month behind the nonfarm payrolls report, but is still taken into account by policymakers.

Unsurprisingly, consumer prices spiked 0.4% in September, beating analysts’ expectations of 0.3%, as reported by the US Labor Department this Wednesday. On an annual basis, consumer prices have risen 5.4%, marking the highest level of inflation since January 1991. CPI rose 0.2% on a monthly basis, and 4% on annually. Food and gas prices account for much of the increase, as food prices rose 1.2%. Meat prices alone grew 3.3% in September or 12.6% on an annual basis. Gas prices spiked 1.2% for the month and 42.1% annually, while fuel oil prices grew 3.9% for the month and 42.6% annually. Shelter prices account for one-third of CPI and rose 0.4% monthly and 3.2% annually. The Federal Reserve holds their stance that inflation is “transitory” and believe it will wane once supply chain issues are addressed.

US Market Closings:

  • Dow declined 0.53 of a point or 0% to 34,377.81
  • S&P 500 advanced 13.15 points or 0.3% to 4,363.8
  • Nasdaq advanced 105.71 points or 0.73% to 14,571.63
  • Russell 2000 advanced 7.7 points or 0.34% to 2,241.97


Canada Market Closings:

  • TSX Composite advanced 181.35 points or 0.89% to 20,618.47
  • TSX 60 advanced 9.54 points or 0.78% to 1,235.85


Brazil Market Closing:

  • Bovespa advanced 1,275.44 points or 1.14% to 113,455.92




The oil markets had a mixed day today:


  • Crude Oil decreased 0.05 USD/BBL or -0.06% to 80.5900
  • Brent decreased 0.1 USD/BBL or -0.12% to 83.3200
  • Natural gas increased 0.081 USD/MMBtu or 1.47% to 5.5860
  • Gasoline increased 0.0236 USD/GAL or 0.99% to 2.4065
  • Heating oil increased 0.0136 USD/GAL or 0.54% to 2.5236


The above data was collected around 14:26 EST on Wednesday


  • Top commodity gainers: Zinc (5.40%) and Palladium (3.45%), Copper (4.01%) and Lumber (4.30%)
  • Top commodity losers: Cocoa (-3.10%), Orange Juice (-2.95%), Steel (-3.03%), and Lithium (-7.30%)



The above data was collected around 14:35 EST on Wednesday.




Japan 0.094%(+0.5bp), US 2’s 0.3640%(+0.02%), US 10’s 1.5472%(-2.44bps); US 30’s 2.0399%(-0.05%),Bunds -0.1290% (-3.3bp), France 0.2030% (-3.3bp), Italy 0.9121% (-0.88bp), Turkey 18.46% (-3bp), Greece 0.9270% (-0.9bp), Portugal 0.390% (-2bp); Spain 0.51% (-2.27bp) and UK Gilts 1.1010% (-5bp).