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Market Talk – October 12, 2021

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The Indian economy is poised to achieve 10.25 per cent GDP growth in FY 2021-22 on the back of effective government policies, Reserve Bank’s accommodative policy stance and improved business sentiments, industry body PHDCCI said on Monday. Last week, the Reserve Bank retained the GDP (gross domestic product) forecast for the current financial year at 9.5 percent and flagged global semiconductor shortages, elevated commodity prices, and potential global financial market volatility as downside risks to economic growth.


The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today:

  • NIKKEI 225 decreased 267.59 or -0.94% to 28,230.61
  • Shanghai decreased 44.77 or -1.25% to 3,546.94
  • Hang Seng decreased 362.50 or -1.43% to 24,962.59
  • ASX 200 decreased 19.10 points or -0.26% to 7,280.70
  • Kospi decreased 39.92 points or -1.35% to 2,916.38
  • SENSEX increased 148.53 points or 0.25% to 60,284.31
  • Nifty50 increased 46.00 points or 0.26% to 17,991.95



The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:

  • AUDUSD increased 0.00128 or 0.17% to 0.73609
  • NZDUSD increased 0.00009 or 0.01% to 0.69421
  • USDJPY increased 0.25 or 0.22% to 113.59
  • USDCNY decreased 0.00657 or -0.10% to 6.45201


Precious Metals:

  • Gold increased 7.37 USD/t oz. or 0.42% to 1,761.23
  • Silver decreased 0.005 USD/t. oz or -0.02% to 22.551


Some economic news from last night:


Bank Lending (YoY) (Sep) remain the same at 0.6%

PPI (MoM) (Sep) increased from 0.1% to 0.3%

PPI (YoY) (Sep) increased from 5.8% to 6.3%

South Korea:

Interest Rate Decision (Oct) remain the same at 0.75%


NAB Business Confidence (Sep) increased from -6 to 13

NAB Business Survey (Sep) decreased from 14 to 5

New Zealand:

Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) increased from -19.7% to 0.9%

Electronic Card Retail Sales (YoY) (Sep) decreased from -11.4% to -14.9%

External Migration & Visitors (Aug) decreased from 767.80% to -44.00%

Permanent/Long-Term Migration (Aug) decreased from 1,096 to 353

Visitor Arrivals (MoM) decreased from -41.4% to -91.1%


Some economic news from today:


PBoC Reserve Requirement Ratio decreased from 12.50% to 10.50%


CPI (YoY) (Sep) decreased from 5.30% to 4.35%

Cumulative Industrial Production (Aug) decreased from 34.10% to 28.60%

Industrial Production (YoY) (Aug) increased from 11.5% to 11.9%

Manufacturing Output (MoM) (Aug) decreased from 10.5% to 9.7%


Car Sales (YoY) (Sep) decreased from 123.50% to 73.24%




Britain’s economy will retain deep scars long after the pandemic has passed, slowing growth and adding to the strain on the public finances, a major report ahead of the government’s budget concluded. The findings from the Institute for Fiscal Studies illustrate the pressures facing Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak, with rising prices and interest rates likely to add 15 billion pounds ($20 billion) to the Treasury’s debt payments this year and beyond. Economists at Citi, which helped produce the report, said output is on course to remain below its pre-pandemic level at the end of this year, and as much as 3% of output has been lost permanently due to the crisis and Britain’s exit from the European Union.


The major Europe stock markets had a negative day:

  • CAC 40 decreased 22.43 points or -0.34% to 6,548.11
  • FTSE 100 decreased 16.62 points or -0.23% to 7,130.23
  • DAX 30 decreased 52.27 points or -0.34% to 15,146.87


The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:

  • EURUSD decreased 0.0018 or -0.16% to 1.15357
  • GBPUSD increased 0.00038 or 0.03% to 1.35924
  • USDCHF increased 0.00299 or 0.32% to 0.93047


Some economic news from Europe today:


Average Earnings ex Bonus (Aug) decreased from 6.8% to 6.0%

Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Aug) decreased from 8.3% to 7.2%

Claimant Count Change (Sep) increased from -58.6K to -51.1K

Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) (Aug) increased from 183K to 235K

Unemployment Rate (Aug) decreased from 4.6% to 4.5%


German WPI (MoM) (Sep) increased from 0.5% to 0.8%

German WPI (YoY) (Sep) increased from 12.3% to 13.2%

German ZEW Current Conditions (Oct) decreased from 31.9 to 21.6

German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Oct) decreased from 26.5 to 22.3

Euro Zone:

ZEW Economic Sentiment (Oct) decreased from 31.1 to 21.0


JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon is bullish on the US economic recovery has backed the Fed’s transitory stance on inflation. “This will not be an issue next year at all. This is the worst part of it. I think great market systems will adjust for it like companies have.” Dimon believes that once the supply bottleneck issues are addressed, high inflation will subdue. In the meantime, Dimon noted that consumer spending, which compose two-thirds of US GDP, will continue in other areas. “Keep in mind, the consumer’s buying other stuff. They can’t buy cars; they’re buying home improvement. They can’t travel internationally; they travel domestically. The spend level is very high.”

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is warning the Federal Reserve to prepare to tighten its policy. Although the IMF agrees that inflation is not permanent, the forecasts provide “high uncertainty” as “inflation risk are skewed to the upside” in the US. Gita Gopinath, IMF economic counselor and director of research, is warning the Federal Reserve that they “should be prepared to act quickly if the risks of rising inflation expectations become more material in this uncharted recovery.” “Central banks should chart contingent actions, announce clear triggers, and act in line with that communication,” she noted.

Inflation is continually rising, as proven in a report released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York this Tuesday. The New York Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Expectations expects the median inflation rate to rise to 5.3% over the next year, while inflation over the next three years is expected to rise at a median rate of 4.2%. “Median inflation uncertainty – or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes – was unchanged at the short-term horizon and decreased at the medium-term horizon,” the survey noted.

US Market Closings:

  • Dow declined 117.72 points or -0.34% to 34,378.34
  • S&P 500 declined 10.54 points or -0.24% to 4,350.65
  • Nasdaq declined 20.27 points or -0.14% to 14,465.92
  • Russell 2000 advanced 13.63 points or 0.61% to 2,234.27


Canada Market Closings:

  • TSX Composite advanced 20.81 points or 0.1% to 20,437.12
  • TSX 60 declined 0.45 of a point or -0.04% to 1,226.31


Brazil Market Closing:

  • Bovespa declined 652.72 points or -0.58% to 112,180.48





The oil markets had a mixed day today:


  • Crude Oil increased 0.1 USD/BBL or 0.12% to 80.6200
  • Brent decreased 0.27 USD/BBL or -0.32% to 83.3800
  • Natural gas increased 0.09 USD/MMBtu or 1.68% to 5.4350
  • Gasoline increased 0.0028 USD/GAL or 0.12% to 2.3807
  • Heating oil decreased 0.0104 USD/GAL or -0.41% to 2.5046


The above data was collected around 12:44 EST on Tuesday


  • Top commodity gainers: Orange Juice (2.07%) and Methanol (3.42%), Lumber (2.05%) and Coffee (4.50%)
  • Top commodity losers: Canola (-2.91%), Palladium (-3.28%), Rhodium (-2.82%), and Lithium (-7.30%)


The above data was collected around  12:52 EST on Tuesday.





Japan 0.096%(+0.6bp), US 2’s 0.3538%(+0.00%), US 10’s 1.5891%(-2.27bps); US 30’s 2.1148%(-0.06%),Bunds -0.0870% (+3.2bp), France 0.2440% (+3bp), Italy 0.9213% (+0.75bp), Turkey 18.66% (+39bp), Greece 0.9350% (+0.8bp), Portugal 0.408% (+1.3bp); Spain 0.536% (+1.76bp) and UK Gilts 1.135% (-5.5bp).