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Market Talk – November 9, 2021

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ASIA:

The US central bank warned Monday that China’s ongoing property woes could elevate “financial stresses in China, [which] could further strain global financial markets and negatively affect the United States.” In its biannual report on financial stability, the Fed pointed specifically to the crisis at Evergrande, China’s most indebted developer. The company has sparked fears of contagion since September, upon warning that it could default on its debts of more than $300 billion. The central bank warned that given the size of China’s economy and financial system, and its global ties, “financial stresses in China could strain global financial markets through a deterioration of risk sentiment, pose risks to global economic growth, and affect the United States.”

Japan is considering an economic stimulus package worth more than 30 trillion yen ($265 billion) aimed at easing the pain from the COVID-19 pandemic, a plan that would require issuing new debt, Reuters reported. Part of the spending will come from funds carried over from last year’s budget. A government panel tasked with drawing up a blueprint for Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s so-called new style of capitalism is expected to issue proposals on Monday that will lay the backbone of the planned stimulus package.

 

The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today:

  • NIKKEI 225 decreased 221.59 or -0.75% to 29,285.46
  • Shanghai increased 8.37 or 0.24% to 3,507.00
  • Hang Seng increased 49.36 points or 0.20% to 24,813.13
  • ASX 200 decreased 18.00 points or -0.24 to 7,434.20
  • Kospi increased 2.26 points or 0.08% to 2,962.46
  • SENSEX decreased 112.16 points or -0.19% to 60,433.45
  • Nifty50 decreased 24.30 points or -0.13% to 18,044.25

 

 

The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:

  • AUDUSD decreased 0.00427 or -0.58% to 0.73728
  • NZDUSD decreased 0.00362 or -0.51% to 0.71250
  • USDJPY decreased 0.38 or -0.34% to 112.88
  • USDCNY increased 0.00336 or 0.05% to 6.39249

 

Precious Metals:

  • Gold increased 5.59 USD/t oz. or 0.31% to 1,829.85
  • Silver decreased 0.162 USD/t. oz or -0.66% to 24.277

 

Some economic news from last night:

Japan:

Average Cash Earnings (YoY) decreased from 0.6% to 0.2%

Overall wage income of employees (Sep) decreased from 0.6% to 0.2%

Overtime Pay (YoY) (Sep) decreased from 6.00% to 4.40%

Adjusted Current Account decreased from 0.88T to 0.76T

Bank Lending (YoY) (Oct) increased from 0.6% to 0.9%

Current Account n.s.a. (Sep) decreased from 1.503T to 1.034T

Australia:

NAB Business Confidence (Oct) increased from 13 to 21

NAB Business Survey (Oct) increased from 5 to 11

New Zealand:

Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) increased from 1.0% to 10.1%

Electronic Card Retail Sales (YoY) (Oct) increased from -14.9% to -7.6%

Indonesia:

Retail Sales (YoY) (Sep) decreased from -2.1% to -2.2%

 

Some economic news from today:

Japan:

Economy Watchers Current Index (Oct) increased from 42.1 to 55.5

Australia:

HIA New Home Sales (MoM) increased from 2.3% to 11.1%

 

EUROPE/EMEA:

The Bank of England and Britain’s finance ministry said on Tuesday that they would hold a formal consultation next year on whether to move forward on a possible central bank digital currency (CBDC) that would take years to introduce. Central banks across the world are studying digital versions of their currencies to avoid leaving digital payments to the private sector as the decline of cash has accelerated in some cases due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Financial services minister John Glen said a retail CBDC would be used by people and businesses for their everyday payments needs and helping Britain stay at the forefront of innovation and technology in the financial sector. The European Central Bank in July took a first step towards launching a digital version of the euro, kicking off a 24-month investigation phase to be followed by three years of implementation.

Inflation soars to its highest level in three decades in Germany. Latest data put inflation in Europe’s biggest economy at five percent year-on-year, a level not seen in the last 30 years. Bild, the country’s biggest-selling newspaper, blames the European Central Bank for failing to rein in prices and even adding to the problem with its cheap money policy. The Frankfurt-based ECB has argued that its record-low interest rates and 1.85-trillion-euro ($2.15-trillion) pandemic emergency bond-buying programme are necessary to prop up an economy ravaged by the coronavirus crisis. In Germany, however, savers believe the ECB’s zero-interest-rate policy is eating away at the value of their assets.

 

The major Europe stock markets had a negative day:

  • CAC 40 decreased 4.21 points or -0.06% to 7,043.27
  • FTSE 100 decreased 26.36 points or -0.36% to 7,274.04
  • DAX 30 decreased 6.05 points or -0.04% to 16,040.47

 

 

The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:

  • EURUSD increased 0.00043 or 0.04% to 1.15908
  • GBPUSD decreased 0.00045 or -0.03% to 1.35579
  • USDCHF decreased 0.00263 or -0.29% to 0.91072

 

Some economic news from Europe today:

Germany:

German ZEW Current Conditions (Nov) decreased from 21.6 to 12.5

German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Nov) increased from 22.3 to 31.7

Gemran Current Account Balance n.s.a (Sep) increased from 11.8 to 19.6B

German Exports (MoM) (Sep) increased from -0.8% to -0.7%

German Imports (MoM) (Sep) decreased from 2.1% to 0.1%

German Trade Balance (Sep) increased from 13.0B to 13.2B

France:

French Current Account (Sep) decreased from -1.40B to -2.70B

French Exports (Sep) decreased from 42.4B to 42.0B

French Imports (Sep) decreased from 49.0B to 48.8B

French Trade Balance (Sep) decreased from -6.7B to -6.8B

Euro Zone:

ZEW Economic Sentiment (Nov) increased from 21.0 to 25.9

US/AMERICAS:

General Electric, one of the oldest stocks on the market, announced plans to divide the company into three separate units. GE will now branch off into three companies that focus on aviation, energy, and healthcare. The healthcare unit will launch in 2023, while the energy department will launch the following year. “By creating three industry-leading, global public companies, each can benefit from greater focus, tailored capital allocation, and strategic flexibility to drive long-term growth and value for customers, investors, and employees,” CEO Lawrence Culp stated.

Inflation hit a new high in October after wholesale prices spiked 8.6% YoY. The producer price index advanced 0.6% last month, as analysts had anticipated, but marks an 0.1% uptick from September. Removing food, energy, and trade the index rose 0.4% MoM. Core consumer prices rose 6.2% YoY, marking the fastest pace in over a decade. One-third of the increase in goods came from rising energy prices (6.7%).

US Market Closings:

  • Dow declined 112.24 points or -0.31% to 36,319.98
  • S&P 500 declined 16.45 points or -0.35% to 4,685.25
  • Nasdaq declined 95.81 points or -0.6% to 15,886.54
  • Russell 2000 declined 15.45 points or -0.63% to 2,427.29

 

Canada Market Closings:

  • TSX Composite advanced 37.98 points or 0.18% to 21,594.52
  • TSX 60 advanced 3.38 points or 0.26% to 1,297.85

 

Brazil Market Closing:

  • Bovespa advanced 753.95 points or 0.72% to 105,535.08

 

ENERGY:

 

The oil markets had a mixed day today:

 

  • Crude Oil increased 2.12 USD/BBL or 2.59% to 84.0500
  • Brent increased 1.14 USD/BBL or 1.37% to 84.5700
  • Natural gas decreased 0.445 USD/MMBtu or -8.20% to 4.9820
  • Gasoline increased 0.0559 USD/GAL or 2.41% to 2.3781
  • Heating oil increased 0.0018 USD/GAL or 0.07% to 2.4689

 

The above data was collected around 13:55 EST on Tuesday

 

  • Top commodity gainers: Crude Oil (2.59%) and Coffee (2.73%), Cotton (2.76%) and Coal (2.45%)
  • Top commodity losers: Bitumen (-2.09%), Palladium (-2.26%), Palm Oil (-2.29%), and Natural Gas (-8.20%)

 

 

The above data was collected around 14:00 EST on Tuesday

 

BONDS:

 

Japan 0.055%(-0.5bp), US 2’s 0.4128% (-0.03%), US 10’s 1.4254%(-6.78bps); US 30’s 1.8079%(

-0.08%), Bunds -0.299% (-5.2bp), France 0.0440% (-4.9bp), Italy 0.843% (-5bp), Turkey 18.55% (+11bp), Greece 1.085% (-0.7bp), Portugal 0.315% (-2.3bp); Spain 0.396% (-4.01bp) and UK Gilts 0.82% (-3.6bp).