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Market Talk – November 17, 2021

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Retail sales growth in China bounced back in October, while industrial production also beat expectations. Retail sales, a key measurement of consumer spending in the world’s most populous nation, grew by 4.9 percent in October compared with a year earlier, up from the 4.4 percent increase in September, and above the estimate for a rise of 3.8 percent made in a Bloomberg survey of analysts. Industrial production, a gauge of activity in the manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors, grew by 3.5 percent in October from a year earlier after a 3.1 percent gain in September, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The figure was also above the median forecast in the Bloomberg survey for a rise of 3 percent.

India’s annual wholesale price-based inflation accelerated in October to a five-month high, pushed up by increases in fuel and manufacturing prices, fuelling concerns of rising inflationary pressures for firms. Annual wholesale price-based inflation in October rose to 12.54% from the previous month’s 10.66%, remaining in double-digits for the seventh month in a row, government data showed on Monday. Consumer prices-based inflation, the main gauge monitored by the monetary policy committee of the Reserve Bank of India, rose 4.48% in October from the same month last year, speeding up from September’s 4.35%, separate data released on Friday showed. The gap between retail and wholesale price-based inflation has widened in recent months as many companies and retailers are still trying to absorb galloping input costs that threaten to hit their bottom lines.


The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today:

  • NIKKEI 225 decreased 119.79 or -0.40% to 29,688.33
  • Shanghai increased 15.58 or 0.44% to 3,537.37
  • Hang Seng decreased 63.70 points or -0.25% to 25,650.08
  • ASX 200 decreased 50.50 points or -0.68 to 7,369.90
  • Kospi decreased 34.79 points or -1.16% to 2,962.42
  • SENSEX decreased 314.04 points or -0.52% to 60,008.33
  • Nifty50 decreased 100.55 points or -0.56% to 17,898.65



The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:

  • AUDUSD decreased 0.003 or -0.41% to 0.72673
  • NZDUSD increased 0.00141 or 0.20% to 0.70008
  • USDJPY decreased 0.88 or -0.76% to 114.06
  • USDCNY decreased 0.01682 or -0.26% to 6.37517


Precious Metals:

  • Gold increased 15.62 USD/t oz. or 0.84% to 1,865.53
  • Silver increased 0.262 USD/t. oz or 1.05% to 25.062


Some economic news from last night:


Adjusted Trade Balance increased from -0.61T to -0.44T

Core Machinery Orders (YoY) (Sep) decreased from 17.0% to 12.5%

Core Machinery Orders (MoM) (Sep) increased from -2.4% to 0.0%

Exports (YoY) (Oct) decreased from 13.0% to 9.4%

Imports (YoY) (Oct) decreased from 38.6% to 26.7%

Trade Balance (Oct) increased from -624.1B to -67.4B


MI Leading Index (MoM) increased from 0.0% to 0.2%

Wage Price Index (YoY) (Q3) increased from 1.7% to 2.2%

Wage Price Index (QoQ) (Q3) increased from 0.4% to 0.6%

New Zealand:

PPI Input (QoQ) (Q3) decreased from 3.0% to 1.6%

PPI Output (QoQ) (Q3) decreased from 2.6% to 1.8%


Non-Oil Exports (YoY) (Oct) increased from 12.00% to 17.90%

Non-Oil Exports (MoM) (Oct) increased from 1.00% to 4.20%

Trade Balance increased from 4.954B to 5.909B



Some economic news from today:


M3 Money Supply increased from 9.7% to 11.0%



The prospect of a pre-Christmas increase in interest rates has loomed more prominently after the Bank of England governor told MPs he was troubled by the UK’s rising inflation rate. Giving evidence to the Commons Treasury select committee, Andrew Bailey said he was “very uneasy” about the rising cost of living and had come close to voting for an increase in borrowing costs when Threadneedle Street last met to decide on interest rates earlier this month. The Bank currently expects inflation to peak at 5% next spring, well above the 2% target set by the government for the Bank to achieve, but Bailey said he had held back from voting for a rise in borrowing costs this month because he wanted more evidence on the post-furlough jobs market.

The unemployment rate in the United Kingdom fell to 4.3 percent in the three-month period ending in September, compared to 4.5 percent for the three months to August, according to the country’s Office for National Statistics. This is the lowest since the three months to July 2020. Meanwhile, the country’s labor productivity fell by a quarterly rate of 1.2 percent in the three months to September, compared to a marginal 0.1 percent rise in the previous period, preliminary estimates showed.

France’s Interior Minister blamed UK’s black economy for attracting migrants as he prepares for a meeting with the British Home Secretary. The meeting comes as the number of people crossing the English Channel has reached record levels. Gerald Darmanin is due to meet his UK counterpart Priti Patel on Monday to discuss the latest numbers with both sides trading barbs over who is to blame after more than 23,500 people reached the UK after crossing the English Channel on small boats this year.

France’s economic inflation is on the rise. The yearly inflation rate in France reached 2.6 percent in October, rising from the previous month’s 2.2 percent, the country’s official statistics agency said. Energy prices largely drove the inflationary pressures, going up by 20.6 percent compared to a year ago. In particular, the prices of petroleum products, diesel and gas surged annually by 27, 27.4 and 50.2 percent. Prices of services also increased by a year-on-year rate of 1.8 percent while tobacco products cost 4.8 percent more in October compared to the previous year.


The major Europe stock markets had a mixed day:

  • CAC 40 increased 4.25 points or 0.06% to 7,156.85
  • FTSE 100 decreased 35.77 points or -0.49% to 7,291.20
  • DAX 30 increased 3.27 points or 0.02% to 16,251.13



The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:

  • EURUSD increased 0.0007 or 0.06% to 1.13175
  • GBPUSD increased 0.00677 or 0.50% to 1.34879
  • USDCHF decreased 0.00213 or -0.23% to 0.92851


Some economic news from Europe today:


Core CPI (YoY) (Oct) increased from 2.9% to 3.4%

Core CPI MoM (MoM) (Oct) increased from 0.4% to 0.7%

Core PPI Output (MoM) (Oct) increased from 0.6% to 0.7%

Core PPI Output (YoY) (Oct) increased from 6.0% to 6.5%

Core RPI (YoY) (Oct) increased from 5.0% to 6.1%

Core RPI (MoM) (Oct) increased from 0.4% to 1.1%

CPI (MoM) (Oct) increased from 0.3% to 1.1%

CPI (YoY) (Oct) increased from 3.1% to 4.2%

CPI, n.s.a (Oct) increased from 112.40 to 113.60

PPI Input (YoY) (Oct) increased from 11.9% to 13.0%

PPI Input (MoM) (Oct) increased from 0.8% to 1.4%

PPI Output (YoY) (Oct) increased from 7.0% to 8.0%

PPI Output (MoM) (Oct) increased from 0.7% to 1.1%

RPI (MoM) (Oct) increased from 0.4% to 1.1%

RPI (YoY) (Oct) increased from 4.9% to 6.0%


Italian Trade Balance (Sep) increased from 1.317B to 2.454B

Italian Trade Balance EU (Sep) increased from -0.28B to 0.76B

Euro Zone:

Construction Output (MoM) (Sep) increased from -1.38% to 0.93%

Core CPI (YoY) (Oct) increased from 1.9% to 2.0%

Core CPI (MoM) (Oct) remain the same at 0.3%

CPI (YoY) (Oct) increased from 3.4% to 4.1%

CPI (MoM) (Oct) increased from 0.5% to 0.8%

CPI ex Tobacco (YoY) (Oct) increased from 3.4% to 4.1%

CPI ex Tobacco (MoM) (Oct) increased from 0.5% to 0.9%

HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) (Oct) increased from 1.9% to 2.1%

HICP ex Energy and Food (MoM) (Oct) decreased from 0.4% to 0.3%


Despite rising prices, US consumers spent 1.7% more in October than the previous year. The pace of spending rose 0.8% from September, according to the Commerce Department. Online spending saw a large gain of 4% from the previous month and 10.2% from the previous year. Rising gas prices accelerated spending by 4%, marking a 46.8% increase from October 2020.

Biden is poised to announce the next chairman of the Federal Reserve in the coming days. Current Chair Jerome Powell’s term is set to expire in February, and there are mixed views on whether he will be reappointed. Biden allgedly interviewed Powell and Fed Governor Lael Brainard last week. Former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who spent nearly two decades on the board, is supporting Powell’s second term.

As for rising gas prices, President Biden is asking the Federal Trade Commission to investigate whether energy companies are artificially raising prices. In a letter to FTC Chair Lina Khan, the White House claims a “mounting evidence of anti-consumer behavior.” Gas is now around $3.42 per gallon across the nation, with certain areas seeing gas prices rising above $8. “The bottom line is this: gasoline prices at the pump remain high, even though oil and gas companies’ costs are declining,” Biden said. “The Federal Trade Commission has authority to consider whether illegal conduct is costing families at the pump. I believe you should do so immediately.”

US Market Closings:

  • Dow declined 211.17 points or -0.58% to 35,931.05
  • S&P 500 declined 12.23 points or -0.26% to 4,688.67
  • Nasdaq declined 52.28 points or -0.33% to 15,921.57
  • Russell 2000 declined 28.02 points or -1.16% to 2,377.01


Canada Market Closings:

  • TSX Composite declined 64.14 points or -0.3% to 21,653.02
  • TSX 60 declined 3.94 points or -0.3% to 1,303.07


Brazil Market Closing:

  • Bovespa declined 1,455.21 points or -1.39% to 102,948.45




The oil markets had a negative day today:


  • Crude Oil decreased 2.67 USD/BBL or -3.31% to 78.0900
  • Brent decreased 2.33 USD/BBL or -2.83% to 80.1000
  • Natural gas decreased 0.351 USD/MMBtu or -6.78% to 4.8260
  • Gasoline decreased 0.0741 USD/GAL or -3.15% to 2.2756
  • Heating oil decreased 0.0084 USD/GAL or -0.35% to 2.4225


The above data was collected around 14:11 EST on Wednesday


  • Top commodity gainers: Palm Oil (2.17%) and Lumber (6.75%), Sugar (2.50%) and Coffee (4.77%)
  • Top commodity losers: Natural gas (-6.78%), Crude Oil (-3.31%), Gasoline (-3.15%), and Brent (-2.83%)


The above data was collected around 14:21 EST on Wednesday





Japan 0.079%(+0.5bp), US 2’s 0.5040% (-0.02%), US 10’s 1.6060%(-3.44bps); US 30’s 2.0023% (-0.03%), Bunds -0.249% (-0.5bp), France 0.1090% (-0.2bp), Italy 0.9880% (+1.6bp), Turkey 18.89% (+9bp), Greece 1.225% (-0.4bp), Portugal 0.357% (-1.7bp); Spain 0.491% (+0.89bp) and UK Gilts 0.962% (-2.8bp).