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Market Talk – November 1, 2022

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Japan’s factory output fell in September for the first time in four months as manufacturers grappled with rising raw materials costs and global economic slowdown and is likely to fall again next month before picking up in November, the government said. Factory output fell a seasonally adjusted 1.6% in September from a month earlier, government data showed on Monday, deeper than economists’ median forecast of a 1.0% decline. That marked the first month-on-month fall in four months and followed a 2.7% rise in August. A 12.4% decline in auto-related production – the sector’s steepest fall in eight months – drove down the overall index. Automakers and suppliers have struggled with a shortage of semiconductors, exacerbated by COVID-19 lockdown measures in China where many Japanese firms have factories or suppliers. Reuters reported last week that Toyota Motor Corp has told suppliers to lower production targets for 2022.

In a brighter sign for the world’s third-largest economy, retail sales grew for a seventh consecutive month, raising hope for a sustainable boost in consumption after the easing of COVID-19-related inbound border controls earlier in October.



The major Asian stock markets had a green day today:

  • NIKKEI 225 increased 91.46 points or 0.33% to 27,678.92
  • Shanghai increased 75.72 points or 2.62% to 2,969.20
  • Hang Seng increased 768.25 points or 5.23% to 15,455.27
  • Kospi increased 41.61 points or 1.81% to 2,335.22
  • ASX 200 increased 113.40 points or 1.65% to 6,976.90
  • SENSEX increased 374.76 points or 0.62% to 61,121.35
  • Nifty50 increased 133.20 points or 0.74% to 18,145.40



The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:

  • AUDUSD decreased 0.00152 or -0.24% to 0.63925
  • NZDUSD increased 0.00302 or 0.52% to 0.58432
  • USDJPY decreased 0.67 or -0.45% to 148.063
  • USDCNY decreased 0.03782 or -0.52% to 7.29778



Precious Metals:

  • Gold increased 10.50 USD/t oz. or 0.64% to 1,643.62
  • Silver increased 0.503 USD/t. oz or 2.63% to 19.644


Some economic news from last night:


Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Oct) increased from 48.1 to 49.2


RBA Interest Rate Decision (Nov) increased from 2.60% to 2.85%

Manufacturing PMI decreased from 53.5 to 52.7

New Zealand:

Building Consents (MoM) (Sep) increased from -1.6% to 3.8%


Some economic news from today:

Hong Kong:

Retail Sales (YoY) (Sep) increased from -0.1% to 0.2%


Nikkei S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Oct) increased from 55.1 to 55.3

New Zealand:

GlobalDairyTrade Price Index increased from -4.6% to -3.9%





The Bank of England received solid demand from investors on Tuesday at its first auction to sell government bonds from its 838 billion pounds ($961 billion) quantitative easing stockpile. The BoE aims to sell 6 billion pounds of gilts across eight auctions in November and December, as part of a plan to reduce its gilt holdings by 80 billion pounds over 12 months through a mix of sales and not reinvesting money from maturing gilts. Britain’s central bank is the first among major economies to start outright sales of government bonds – in part because of the long average maturity of its holdings, compared to those held by central banks in the United States and Canada. There was little immediate market reaction to the auction result. Benchmark five-year gilt yields held broadly steady at 3.56%, 4 basis points down on the day and little changed from their level before the auction. There was little immediate market reaction to the auction result. Benchmark five-year gilt yields held broadly steady at 3.56%, 4 basis points down on the day and little changed from their level before the auction.


The major Europe stock markets had a green day:

  • CAC 40 increased 61.48 points or 0.98% to 6,328.25
  • FTSE 100 increased 91.63 points or 1.29% to 7,186.16
  • DAX 30 increased 85.00 points or 0.64% to 13,338.74


The major Europe currency markets had a negative day today:

  • EURUSD decreased 0.00275 or -0.28% to 0.98589
  • GBPUSD decreased 0.00242 or -0.21% to 1.14451
  • USDCHF decreased 0.00011 or -0.01% to 1.00099


Some economic news from Europe today:


Manufacturing PMI (Oct) decreased from 48.4 to 46.2

Nationwide HPI (MoM) (Oct) decreased from 0.0% to -0.9%

Nationwide HPI (YoY) (Oct) decreased from 9.5% to 7.2%


SECO Consumer Climate (Q4) increased from -42 to -38 PMI (Oct) decreased from 57.1 to 54.9



The decision-making branch of the Federal Reserve met for its two-day meeting this Tuesday. The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to raise rates again, with the market pricing in a 75 bps hike. This would mark the fourth consecutive 75 bps jump in rates. Inflation is still far beyond the 2% target in every area, and all Fed members seem poised to continue hiking rates until progress becomes apparent and steady.

Job openings in the US reached 10.72 million in September, according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). The US workforce remains tight, and there are 1.9 openings per available worker. The employer cost index is growing by around 5% annually. The nonfarm payrolls report for October is set to be released on Friday, providing another good indicator of the US workforce strength. Analysts are expecting an addition of 205,000 positions after hiring fell in September to 252,000.

US Market Closings:

  • Dow declined 79.94 points or -0.24% to 32,653.01
  • S&P 500 declined 15.91 points or -0.41% to 3,856.07
  • Nasdaq declined 97.3 points or -0.89% to 10,890.85
  • Russell 2000 advanced 4.53 points or 0.25% to 1,851.39


Canada Market Closings:

  • TSX Composite advanced 91.57 points or 0.47% to 19,517.71
  • TSX 60 advanced 4.73 points or 0.4% to 1,181.74


Brazil Market Closing:

  • Bovespa advanced 891.58 points or 0.77% to 116,928.66




The oil markets had a mixed day today:


  • Crude Oil increased 2.007 USD/BBL or 2.32% to 88.537
  • Brent increased 2.028 USD/BBL or 2.19% to 94.838
  • Natural gas decreased 0.6666 USD/MMBtu or -10.49% to 5.6884
  • Gasoline increased 0.0735 USD/GAL or 2.91% to 2.5992
  • Heating oil decreased 0.0201 USD/GAL or -0.55% to 3.6540


The above data was collected around 12:43 EST on Tuesday


  • Top commodity gainers: Bitumen (3.99%), Palm Oil (4.42%), Cotton (4.19%) and Rice (3.90%)
  • Top commodity losers: Coffee (-1.72%), Natural Gas (-10.49%), Rhodium (-0.71%) and Rapeseed Oil (-1.77%)


The above data was collected around 12:52 EST on Tuesday





Japan 0.250%(+1bp), US 2’s 4.54% (+0.035%), US 10’s 4.0523% (-2.47bps); US 30’s 4.12% (-0.083%), Bunds 2.136% (-1.4bp), France 2.675% (-1bp), Italy 4.271% (-3.5bp), Turkey 11.25% (+26p), Greece 4.581% (-0.9bp), Portugal 3.157% (-0.8bp); Spain 3.221% (-3.4bp) and UK Gilts 3.47% (-5.8bp).