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Market Talk – March 19, 2021

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India’s central bank may have to delay the start of monetary policy normalization by three months amid rising COVID-19 cases, but barring the return of stringent lockdowns, there is no significant threat to the economy’s recovery, analysts say. Though analysts are unlikely to rush to review their long-term growth forecasts, several believe policy normalization on interest rates and liquidity may now take a backseat.

The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today:

  • NIKKEI 225 decreased 424.70 points or -1.41% to 29,792.05
  • Shanghai decreased 58.40 points or -1.69% to 3,404.66
  • Hang Seng decreased 414.78 points or -1.41% to 28,990.94
  • ASX 200 decreased 37.70 points or -0.56% to 6,708.20
  • Kospi decreased 26.48 points or -0.86% to 3,039.53
  • SENSEX increased 641.72 points or 1.30% to 49,858.24
  • Nifty50 increased 186.15 points or 1.28% to 14,744.00

The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:

  • AUDUSD decreased 0.00079 or -0.10% to 0.77478
  • NZDUSD decreased 0.0001 or -0.02% to 0.71672
  • USDJPY decreased 0.1 or -0.09% to 108.84
  • USDCNY increased 0.00346 or 0.05% to 6.51134

Precious Metals:

  • Gold increased 3.92 USD/t oz. or 0.23% to 1,740.33
  • Silver increased 0.16 USD/t. oz or 0.60% to 26.207

Some economic news from last night:


BoJ Interest Rate Decision remain the same at -0.10%

CPI, n.s.a (MoM) (Feb) decreased from 0.5% to 0.0%

National Core CPI (YoY) (Feb) increased from -0.6% to -0.4%

National CPI (YoY) (Feb) increased from -0.6% to -0.4%


Retail Sales (MoM) decreased from 0.3% to -1.1%


Some economic news from today:


FX Reserves, USD increased from 580.30B to 582.04B


Government borrowing costs hit a one-year high as markets repriced for recovery and inflation after the Bank of England said the economic rebound was ahead of schedule and kept monetary policy on hold yesterday. Ten-year gilt yields rose 0.04 percentage points to 0.9 percent after the bank said that the news on near-term economic activity had been positive since last month. The break-even inflation rate, a market proxy for inflation expectations, rose to its highest level since early 2019.

The major Europe stock markets had a negative day:

  • CAC 40 decreased 64.83 points or -1.07% to 5,997.96
  • FTSE 100 decreased 70.97 points or -1.05% to 6,708.71
  • DAX 30 decreased 154.52 points or -1.05% to 14,621.00

The major Europe currency markets had a negative day today:

  • EURUSD decreased 0.00106 or -0.09% to 1.19060
  • GBPUSD decreased 0.00498 or -0.36% to 1.38744
  • USDCHF decreased 0.0001 or -0.01% to 0.92736

Some economic news from Europe today:


GfK Consumer Confidence (Mar) increased from -23 to -16

Public Sector Net Borrowing (Feb) increased from 2.39B to 18.41B

Public Sector Net Cash Requirement (Feb) increased from -19.582B to 14.162B


German PPI (YoY) (Feb) increased from 0.9% to 1.9%

German PPI (MoM) (Feb) decreased from 1.4% to 0.7%


The International Monetary Fund (IMF) stated that the US’ $1.9 trillion package could trigger inflation that will be temporary. Gita Gopinath, Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) stated that a sharp uptick in inflation could become “quite disorderly,” but she stated that the Federal Reserve has the tools to control any potential issues. The Federal Reserve recently raised their inflation target for 2021 and said that they would allow inflation to run a bit above target for a short period of time.

Senior officials from the US and China came together for the first time in what began as a tumultuous debate. At the pre-conference meeting on Thursday, both economic powerhouses exchanged tough words that led to both sides harshly criticizing one another. “China certainly in the past has not and in the future will not accept the unwarranted accusations from the U.S. side. In the past several years, China’s legitimate rights and interests have come under outright suppression, plunging the China-U.S. relationship into a period of unprecedented difficulty,” China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi stated. “I recall well when President Biden was vice president and we were visiting China ..and Vice President Biden at the time said it’s never a good bet to bet against America, and that remains true today,” US Secretary of State Andrew Blinken said.

Day two of the US-China meeting in Alaska did not help to mend relations. Blinken began by stating that the US was deeply concerned that China was becoming a threat to the nation’s cyber security, and pointed to numerous human rights abuses that raised red flags. “The United States does not have the qualification to say that it wants to speak to China from a position of strength,” Minister Yang stated, while reiterating that the US must stay out of China’s internal affairs. Based on the meeting, it seems as if part two of the original US-China trade deal will take an immense effort.

US Market Closings:

  • Dow declined 234.33 points or -0.71% to 32,627.97
  • S&P 500  declined 2.36% or -0.06% to 3,913.1
  • Nasdaq  advanced 99.07 points or -.76% to 14,215.24
  • Russell 2000 advanced 19.96 points or 0.88% to 2,287.55

Canada Market Closings:

  • TSX Composite advanced 17.53 points or 0.09% to 18,854.00
  • TSX 60 declined -0.41 of a point or -0.04% to 1,124.15


Brazil Market Closing:

  • Bovespa advanced 1,386.15 points or 1.21% to 116,221.58


The oil markets had a mixed day today:

  • Crude Oil increased 0.8 USD/BBL or 1.33% to 60.8000
  • Brent increased 0.74 USD/BBL or 1.17% to 64.0200
  • Natural gas increased 0.026 USD/MMBtu or 1.05% to 2.5070
  • Gasoline decreased 0.0107 USD/GAL or -0.55% to 1.9334
  • Heating oil increased 0.0202 USD/GAL or 1.13% to 1.8044


  • Top commodity gainers: Soybeans (1.83%), Corn (2.01%), Lumber (3.73%) and Coal (3.31%)
  • Top commodity losers: Palladium (-2.05%), Bitumen (-7.35%), Palm Oil (-2.08%), and Rubber (-2.96%)

The above data was collected around 12:28 EST on Friday.


Japan 0.12%(+1bp), US 2’s 0.14%(-0.020%), US 10’s 1.71%(-2bps); US 30’s 2.45%(-0.030%), Bunds -0.30% (+1bp), France -0.04% (-2bp), Italy 0.67% (-2bp), Turkey 13.62% (+5bp), Greece 0.92% (-4bp), Portugal 0.23% (-3bp); Spain 0.35% (-3bp) and UK Gilts 0.84% (-3bp).