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Market Talk – March 1, 2021

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China’s manufacturing sector grew at a markedly slower pace in February than the month before, surveys released over the weekend suggested, even as similar indicators in the US are signaling rapid growth. Chinese purchasing managers indexes have been trending lower since December when officials mandated new lockdowns in some northern cities to contain a rash of coronavirus outbreaks there. February’s service sector PMI was expected to be weak because officials have been exhorting citizens to stay at home. The survey conducted suggests that if China’s export orders don’t recover in March and April, that could signal the nation’s economy is cooling more quickly than many anticipated.

China’s Inner Mongolia has banned cryptocurrency mining and declared its intention of shutting all such projects by April, spurring fears the world’s No. 2 economy will take more steps this year to eradicate the power-hungry practice. The autonomous region, a favorite among the industry because of its cheap power, also banned new digital coin projects, according to a draft plan posted on the Inner Mongolia Development and Reform Commission’s website Feb. 25. The aim is to constrain growth in energy consumption to about 1.9% in 2021.

India’s GDP grew 0.4% in October-December compared with the same period a year earlier, data released by the National Statistics Office on Friday showed. That compared with revised contractions of 7.3% in July-September and 24.4% in April-June. Investment recorded its first growth since December 2019, growing at 2.6% compared to a revised 6.8% fall in the previous quarter, while weakness in consumer demand eased, Reuters reported. Consumer spending – the main driver of the economy – dropped 2.4 % year-on-year in Oct-December compared to an 11.3% fall in the previous quarter, data showed.

The major Asian stock markets had a green day today:

  • NIKKEI 225 increased 697.49 points or 2.41% to 29,663.50
  • Shanghai increased 42.32 points or 1.21% to 3,551.40
  • Hang Seng increased 472.36 points or 1.63% to 29,452.57
  • ASX 200 increased 116.30 points or 1.74% to 6,789.60
  • Kospi closed
  • SENSEX increased 749,85 points or 1.53% to 49,849.84
  • Nifty50 increased 232.40 points or 1.60% to 14,761.55

The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:

  • AUDUSD increased 0.00644 or 0.84% to 0.77717
  • NZDUSD increased 0.00298 or 0.41% to 0.72629
  • USDJPY increased 0.23 or 0.22% to 106.78
  • USDCNY decreased 0.01347 or -0.21% to 6.46642

Precious Metals:

  • Gold decreased 8.76 USD/t oz. or -0.51% to 1,724.73
  • Silver decreased 0.069 USD/t. oz or -0.26% to 26.552


Some economic news from last night:


Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Feb) decreased from 51.5 to 50.9

Chinese Composite PMI (Feb) decreased from 52.8 to 51.6

Manufacturing PMI (Feb) decreased from 51.3 to 50.6

Non-Manufacturing PMI (Feb) decreased from 52.4 to 51.4


Manufacturing PMI (Feb) increased from 49.8 to 51.4

South Korea:

Exports (YoY) (Feb) decreased from 11.4% to 9.5%

Imports (YoY) (Feb) increased from 3.6% to 13.9%

Trade Balance (Feb) decreased from 3.76B to 2.71B


AIG Manufacturing Index (Feb) increased from 55.3  to 58.8

Manufacturing PMI decreased from 57.2 to 56.9

MI Inflation Gauge (MoM) decreased from 0.2% to 0.1%

ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) increased from 2.6% to 7.2%

Business inventories (MoM) (Q4) increased from -0.3% to 0.0%

Company Gross Operating Profits (QoQ) (Q4) decreased from 3.2% to -6.6%

Company Profits Pre-Tax (QoQ) (Q4) decreased from 25.8% to 2.4%

Home Loans (MoM) increased from 7.1% to 12.3%

Invest Housing Finance (MoM) increased from 8.2% to 9.4%


Nikkei Manufacturing PMI (Feb) decreased from 52.2 to 50.9

Inflation (MoM) (Feb) decreased from 0.26% to 0.10%

Inflation (YoY) (Feb) decreased from 1.55% to 1.38%

Core Inflation (YoY) (Feb) decreased from 1.56% to 1.53%

Some economic news from today:


Nikkei Markit Manufacturing PMI (Feb) decreased from 57.7 to 57.5

Bank Loan Growth increased from 5.9% to 6.6%

Deposit Growth increased from 11.1% to 11.8%


Commodity Prices (YoY) increased from 19.5% to 23.9%


Johnson & Johnson sent an application for British regulators to approve its one-shot coronavirus vaccine late last week, a spokesperson confirmed on Monday. The company sent a formal conditional marketing authorization to the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA). The Telegraph reported on Sunday that the MHRA would begin the approval process for the Johnson & Johnson vaccine this week. The European Commission released its Winter 2021 Forecast, raising Spain’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth prospects for this year to 5.6%, three-tenths of a point higher than previously expected. For 2022, the EU executive is forecasting GDP growth of 5.3%, up from the previous figure of 4.8%. These numbers put Spain in the lead for economic growth in Europe. The Commission said that GDP growth in the EU will be 3.7% in 2021 and 3.9% in 2022. For the eurozone, it is forecasting the same growth rate of 3.8% in both years.

The European Central Bank (ECB) has said it wants to retain a veto over private stablecoins in the bloc, in a move that would hand powers from lawmakers to the central bank. In a formal opinion submitted to the European Commission on digital currency regulation, the ECB said lawmakers should delegate powers over regulating private stablecoins like Diem within the trading zone, allowing the bank the final say on whether these currencies are allowed to operate. The ECB has also requested its rulings on stablecoins be binding on national authorities, and that those issuing stablecoins should be subject to the same liquidity requirements as banks and other financial institutions.

The major Europe stock markets had a green day:

  • CAC 40 increased 89.57 points or 1.57% to 5,792.79
  • FTSE 100 increased 105.10 points or 1.62% to 6,588.53
  • DAX 30 increased 226.53 points or 1.64% to 14,012.82


The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:

  • EURUSD decreased 0.00292 or -0.24% to 1.20435
  • GBPUSD decreased 0.0006 or -0.04% to 1.39180
  • USDCHF increased 0.00636 or 0.70% to 0.91493


Some economic news from Europe today:



Manufacturing PMI (Feb) increased from 52.5 to 56.1

Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) increased from -5.7% to -0.1%


Retail Sales (YoY) (Jan) decreased from 5.4% to -0.5% PMI (Feb) increased from 59.4 to 61.3


Spanish Manufacturing PMI (Feb) increased from 49.3 to 52.9



Italian Manufacturing PMI (Feb) increased from 55.1 to 56.9

Italian CPI (MoM) (Feb) decreased from 0.7% to 0.1%

Italian CPI (YoY) (Feb) increased from 0.4% to 0.6%

Italian HICP (MoM) (Feb) increased from -0.9% to -0.2%

Italian HICP (YoY) (Feb) increased from 0.7% to 1.0%


French Car Registration (YoY) decreased from -5.8% to -20.9%

French Manufacturing PMI (Feb) increased from 51.6 to 56.1

Euro Zone:

Manufacturing PMI (Feb) increased from 54.8 to 57.9


BoE Consumer Credit (Jan) decreased from -0.870B to -2.392B

M4 Money Supply (MoM) (Jan) increased from 0.6% to 0.7%

Manufacturing PMI (Feb) increased from 54.1 to 55.1

Mortgage Approvals (Jan) decreased from 102.81K to 98.99K

Mortgage Lending (Jan) decreased from 5.34B to 5.17B


House Democrats approved a $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan stimulus package over the weekend. Americans earning under $75,000 and couples earning under $150,000 will receive $1,400 each. Additionally, those who qualify will receive $1,400 per dependent, including adult dependents. As the bill heads to the Senate, Senate Democrats have agreed to remove a minimum wage hike from their former proposal. Lawmakers are hoping to pass the stimulus bill before March 14 when numerous federal aid packages are set to expire.

In good news for both Boeing and the transportation sector, United Airlines purchased 25 737 Max planes. United Airlines Chief Commercial Officer Andrew Nocella said that the airline is preparing for “the future and the return of demand.” Although the jets are not set to be delivered until 2023, the airline sped up the delivery of 40 other 737 Max jets to 2022, which sheds some optimism on the future of travel.

US manufacturing reached a three-year high in February. as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The ISM’s index for factory activity reached 60.8 last in month, which is up from a reading of 58.7 in January.

US Market Closings:

  • Dow advanced 603.14 points or 1.95% to 31,535.51
  • S&P 500 advanced 90.67 points or 2.38% to 3,901.82
  • Nasdaq advanced 396.48 points or 3.01% to 13,588.83
  • Russell 2000 advanced 74.27 points or 3.37% to 2,275.32

Canada Market Closings:

  • TSX Composite advanced 239.36 points or 1.33% to 18,299.62
  • TSX 60 advanced 14.47 points or 1.35% to 1,087.89

Brazil Market Closing:

  • Bovespa advanced 299.66 points or 0.27% to 110,334.83


The oil markets had a mixed day today:

  • Crude Oil decreased 1.08 USD/BBL or -1.76% to 60.4200
  • Brent decreased 0.97 USD/BBL or -1.51% to 63.4500
  • Natural gas increased 0.008 USD/MMBtu or 0.29% to 2.7790
  • Gasoline decreased 0.0122 USD/GAL or -0.63% to 1.9383
  • Heating oil decreased 0.0284 USD/GAL or -1.54% to 1.8147
  • Top commodity gainers: Orange Juice (2.20%), Canola (1.87%), Soda Ash (3.26%) and Coal (2.16%)
  • Top commodity losers: Sugar (-7.76%), Coffee (-4.60%), Tin (-6.46%), and Lumber (-2.17%)

The above data was collected around 16:36 EST on Monday.


Japan 0.15%(-2bp), US 2’s 0.00%(-0.02%), US 10’s 1.43%(-3bps); US 30’s 2.00%(+0.02%), Bunds -0.30% (-0bp), France -0.06% (-5bp), Italy 0.67% (-10bp), Turkey 12.84% (-14bp), Greece 1.01% (-10bp), Portugal 0.22% (-10bp); Spain 0.34% (-4bp) and UK Gilts 0.75% (-8bp).