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Market Talk – June 29, 2022

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ASIA:

Group of Seven democracies have had positive and productive discussions with China and India about a plan to cap the price of Russian oil, a source familiar with the G7 discussions said on Tuesday, adding the two major oil consumers would have incentives to comply. The price-per-barrel cap level had not yet been determined, but it would have to be high enough to give Russia an incentive to keep producing oil, Reuters reported. Russian crude has been selling at heavy discounts of $30 to $40 per barrel compared to benchmark Brent crude prices of $110 to $120 per barrel due to Western sanctions on Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine.

 

The major Asian stock markets had a negative day today:

 

  • NIKKEI 225 decreased 244.87 points or -0.91% to 26,804.60

 

  • Shanghai decreased 47.69 points or -1.40% to 3,361.52

 

  • Hang Seng decreased 422.08 points or -1.88% to 21,996.89

 

  • ASX 200 decreased 63.40 points or -0.94% to 6,700.20

 

  • Kospi decreased 44.10 points or -1.82% to 2,377.99

 

  • SENSEX decreased 150.48 points or -0.28% to 53,026.97

 

  • Nifty50 decreased 51.10 points or -0.32% to 15,799.10

 

The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:

 

  • AUDUSD decreased 0.00261 or -0.38% to 0.68821

 

  • NZDUSD decreased 0.00205 or -0.33% to 0.62195

 

  • USDJPY increased 0.474 or 0.35% to 136.524

 

  • USDCNY decreased 0.002 or -0.03% to 6.70050

 

Precious Metals:

 

l Gold decreased 0.48 USD/t oz. or -0.03% to 1,819.22

 

l Silver decreased 0.073 USD/t. oz or -0.35% to 20.764

 

Some economic news from last night:

 

Japan:

 

Retail Sales (YoY) (May) increased from 3.1% to 3.6%

 

Australia:

 

Retail Sales (MoM) (May) remain the same at 0.9%

 

South Korea:

 

Consumer Confidence (Jun) decreased from 102.6 to 96.4

 

Some economic news from today:

 

Japan:

 

Household Confidence (Jun) decreased from 34.1 to 32.1

 

EUROPE/EMEA:

Britain’s economy is struggling under the strain of two major risks in the form of double-digit inflation and a possible recession, leaving the Bank of England in a dilemma about how much further it should raise interest rates. The BoE has raised borrowing costs five times since December and its next scheduled rates announcement is on Aug. 4. The central bank has said it will act “forcefully” – in other words, increase rates more steeply – if inflation pressures turn more persistent. But it also expects almost no economic growth over the next three years. Consumer prices leapt by 9.1% in the 12 months to May, the most in 40 years, and the BoE has forecast that inflation will top 11% in October when energy bills go up again.

 

The major Europe stock markets had a negative day:

 

l CAC 40 decreased 54.54 points or -0.90% to 6,031.48

 

l FTSE 100 decreased 11.09 points or -0.15% to 7,312.32

 

l DAX 30 decreased 228.47 points or -1.73% to 13,003.35

 

The major Europe currency markets had a negative day today:

 

  • EURUSD decreased 0.00499 or -0.47% to 1.04741

 

  • GBPUSD decreased 0.00447 or -0.37% to 1.21449

 

  • USDCHF decreased 0.00287 or -0.30% to 0.95423

 

Some economic news from Europe today:

 

Swiss:

 

ZEW Expectations (Jun) decreased from -52.6 to -72.7

 

Spain:

 

Spanish CPI (YoY) increased from 8.7% to 10.2%

 

Spanish CPI (MoM) increased from 0.8% to 1.8%

 

Spanish HICP (YoY) (Jun) increased from 8.5% to 10.0%

 

Spanish HICP (MoM) increased from 0.7% to 1.8%

 

Spanish Retail Sales (YoY) (May) decreased from 1.6% to 1.4%

 

Spanish Business Confidence increased from 1.5 to 2.4

 

Germany:

 

German CPI (MoM) (Jun)decreased from 0.9% to 0.1%

 

German CPI (YoY) (Jun) decreased from 7.9% to 7.6%

 

German HICP (MoM) (Jun) decreased from 1.1% to -0.1%

 

German HICP (YoY) (Jun) decreased from 8.7% to 8.2%

 

Euro Zone:

 

M3 Money Supply (YoY) (May) decreased from 6.0% to 5.6%

 

Loans to Non Financial Corporations (May) increased from 5.2% to 5.8%

 

Private Sector Loans (YoY) remain the same at 4.6%

 

Business and Consumer Survey (Jun) decreased from 105.0 to 104.0

 

Business Climate (Jun) increased from 1.28 to 1.47

 

Consumer Confidence (Jun) remain the same at -23.6

 

Consumer Inflation Expectation (Jun) decreased from 45.5 to 42.6

 

Selling Price Expectations (Jun) decreased from 55.5 to 50.4

 

Services Sentiment (Jun) increased from 14.1 to 14.8

 

Industrial Sentiment (Jun) increased from 6.5 to 7.4

US/AMERICAS:

Federal Reserve Jerome Powell has been on the hot seat for inflation lately. While speaking to a European Central Bank forum, Powell pledged that the Fed would do everything in its power to prevent inflation from continuing even if that meant shocking the markets with hawkish policies. “There’s a clock running here, where we have inflation running now for more than a year,” Powell said. “It would be bad risk management to just assume those longer-term inflation expectations would remain anchored indefinitely in the face of persistent high inflation. So we’re not doing that.” Powell admitted that there was a risk of “going too far” with rate hikes but said it would be a bigger mistake to allow prices to continually rise.

US Market Closings:

  • Dow added 82.32 points or 0.27% to 31,029.31
  • S&P 500 declined 2.72 points or -0.07% to 3,818.83
  • Nasdaq declined 3.65 points or -0.03% to 11,177.89
  • Russell 2000 declined 19.47 points or -1.12% to 1,719.37

 

Canada Market Closings:

  • TSX Composite declined 144.1 points or -0.75% to 19,078.64
  • TSX 60 declined 6.31 points or -0.54% to 1,160.09

 

Brazil Market Closing:

  • Bovespa declined 969.83 points or -0.96% to 99,621.58

 

ENERGY:

 

The oil markets had a mixed day today:

 

  • Crude Oil increased 0.34 USD/BBL or 0.30% to 112.100

 

  • Brent increased 0.2 USD/BBL or 0.17% to 118.18

 

  • Natural gas increased 0.008 USD/MMBtu or 0.12% to 6.5590

 

  • Gasoline decreased 0.1232 USD/GAL or -3.13% to 3.8119

 

  • Heating oil decreased 0.0965 USD/GAL or -2.30% to 4.1029

 

 

  • Top commodity gainers: Steel (1.94%), Lumber (2.54%), Palladium (5.43%) and Coffee (2.59%)

 

  • Top commodity losers: Cheese (-5.58%), Milk (-6.49%), Coal (-3.43%) and Gasoline (-3.13%)

 

The above data was collected around 12:20 EST on Wednesday.

 

BONDS:

Japan 0.245%(+1bp), US 2’s 3.05% (-0.069%), US 10’s 3.1041% (-10.29bps); US 30’s 3.22% (-0.088%), Bunds 1.517% (-11.8bp), France 2.0660% (-11.1bp), Italy 3.514% (-15bp), Turkey 18.54% (+8bp), Greece 3.670% (-21.1bp), Portugal 2.601% (-11.9bp); Spain 2.603% (-12.9bp) and UK Gilts 2.3880% (-7.9bp).