Market Talk – January 3, 2023

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China’s economy grew at least 4.4% in 2022, according to leader Xi Jinping, a figure much stronger than many economists had expected. But the current Covid wave may hobble growth in the months ahead. China’s annual GDP is expected to have exceeded 120 trillion yuan ($17.4 trillion) last year, Xi said in a televised New Year’s Eve speech on Saturday. That implies growth of more than 4.4%, which is a surprisingly robust figure. Economists had generally expected growth to slump to a rate between 2.7% and 3.3% for 2022. The government had maintained a much higher annual growth target of around 5.5%. Key data released Saturday showed factory activity in the country contracted in December by the fastest pace in nearly three years. The official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) slumped to 47 last month from 48 in November, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. It was the biggest drop since February 2020 and also marked the third straight month of contraction for the index. A reading below 50 indicates that activity is shrinking. The non-manufacturing PMI, which measures activity in the services sector, plunged to 41.6 last month from 46.7 in November. It also marked the lowest level in nearly three years.

India’s Supreme Court on Monday upheld the legality of the government decision in 2016 to demonetize 86% of the country’s cash in circulation, saying the decision was taken in consultation with the central bank and followed due process. A five-judge bench of the country’s top court passed the verdict by a majority on a batch of petitions questioning the move. One out of the five judges wrote a dissenting opinion. In November 2016, Prime Minister Narendra Modi personally led the shock move to outlaw 86% of the cash in circulation to target undeclared “black money” and fight corruption. But the move, widely known as demonetization, badly hurt India’s cash-dependent economy.


The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today:

  • NIKKEI 225 increased 0.83 points or 0.00% to 26,094.50
  • Shanghai increased 27.25 points or 0.88% to 3,116.51
  • Hang Seng increased 363.88 points or 1.84% to 20,145.29
  • ASX 200 decreased 92.50 points or -1.31% to 6,946.20
  • Kospi decreased 6.99 points or -0.31% to 2,218.68
  • SENSEX increased 126.41 points or 0.21% to 61,294.20
  • Nifty50 increased 35.10 points or 0.19% to 18,232.55



The major Asian currency markets had a negative day today:

  • AUDUSD decreased 0.00731 or -1.07% to 0.67289
  • NZDUSD decreased 0.00731 or -1.16% to 0.62409
  • USDJPY decreased 0.094 or -0.07% to 130.636
  • USDCNY decreased 0.00566 or -0.08% to 6.92094


Precious Metals:

  •  Gold increased 14.97 USD/t oz. or 0.82% to 1,838.66
  •  Silver increased 0.055 USD/t. oz or 0.23% to 24.045


Some economic news from last night:


Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Dec) decreased from 49.4 to 49.0


Some economic news from today:


Commodity Prices (YoY) decreased from 19.6 to 15.6

New Zealand:

GlobalDairyTrade Price Index increased from -3.8% to -2.8%





Britain’s economy rebounded in October a little more strongly than expected from September when output was affected by a one-off public holiday to mark the funeral of Queen Elizabeth, but a recession remained on the cards, official data showed on Monday. Gross domestic product grew by 0.5% after September’s 0.6% contraction, the Office for National Statistics said. In the three months to October, Britain’s economy shrank by 0.3%, a smaller fall than a median forecast for a 0.4% contraction in the Reuters poll but the biggest drop since early 2021 when the country was under tight coronavirus restrictions.


The major Europe stock markets had a green day:

  •  CAC 40 increased 29.32 points or 0.44% to 6,623.89
  •  FTSE 100 increased 102.35 points or 1.37% to 7,554.09
  •  DAX 30 increased 112.41 points or 0.80% to 14,181.67


The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:

  • EURUSD decreased 0.01053 or -0.99% to 1.05567
  • GBPUSD decreased 0.00655 or -0.54% to 1.19795
  • USDCHF increased 0.0115 or 1.24% to 0.93650


Some economic news from Europe today:


Manufacturing PMI (Dec) decreased from 46.5 to 45.3

Swiss: PMI (Dec) increased from 53.9 to 54.1


German Unemployment Change (Dec) decreased from 15K to -13K

German Unemployment Rate (Dec) decreased from 5.6% to 5.5%

Manufacturing PMI (Dec) decreased from 46.5 to 45.3

German CPI (MoM) (Dec) decreased from -0.5% to -0.8%

German CPI (YoY) (Dec) decreased from 10% to 8.6%



The US housing bubble has yet to burst but has shown signs of contracting. CoreLogic reported that home prices in November were 8.6% higher than in November 2021. However, this was the first time in 21 months that prices posted a gain in the single-digits. Prices nationwide are 2.5% lower than the peak experienced during the spring of 2022, and most expect prices to continue to fall. Mortgage rates are soaring once more, with the 30-year fixed loan now surpassing 7%.

Disgraced FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried provided a not guilty plea in front a New York court this Tuesday. Bankman-Fried is facing eight separate charges including money laundering, wire fraud, securities fraud, and aviding campaign financial regulations. Bankman-Fried was released to the US last week from the Bahamas on a $250 million recognizance bond. The US Attorney’s Office believes he illegally used $8 billion in customer assets for personal purchases and political donations.

US Market Closings:

  • Dow declined 10.88 points or -0.03% to 33,136.37
  • S&P 500 declined 15.36 points or -0.4% to 3,824.14
  • Nasdaq declined 79.5 points or -0.76% to 10,386.99
  • Russell 2000 declined 10.51 points or -0.6% to 1,750.73


Canada Market Closings:

  • TSX Composite advanced 58.85 points or 0.3% to 19,443.77
  • TSX 60 advanced 4.89 points or 0.42% to 1,173.8


Brazil Market Closing:

  • Bovespa declined 2,210.28 points or -2.08% to 104,165.74




The oil markets had a negative day today:


  •  Crude Oil decreased 2.486 USD/BBL or -3.10% to 77.774
  •  Brent decreased 2.957 USD/BBL or -3.44% to 82.953
  •  Natural gas decreased 0.5568 USD/MMBtu or -12.44% to 3.9182
  •  Gasoline decreased 0.0887 USD/GAL or -3.56% to 2.3999
  •  Heating oil decreased 0.1512 USD/GAL or -4.59% to 3.1438


The above data was collected around 13:51 EST on Tuesday              


  •  Top commodity gainers: Methanol (2.26%), Palm Oil (1.89%), Rubber (1.77%) and Potatoes (1.75%)
  •  Top commodity losers: Natural Gas (-12.44%), Heating Oil (-4.59%), Gasoline (-3.56%) and Palladium (-4.66%)


The above data was collected around 13:56 EST Tuesday.





Japan 0.418% (-3.6bp), US 2’s 4.41% (+0.006%), US 10’s 3.7878% (-4.32bps); US 30’s 3.88% (-0.056%), Bunds 2.389% (-5.8bp), France 2.916% (-6.3bp), Italy 4.504% (-5.1bp), Turkey 8.53% (+12bp), Greece 4.621% (-3.7bp), Portugal 3.414% (-5.9bp); Spain 3.458% (-6.3bp) and UK Gilts 3.654% (-1.7bp).