Posted Jan 13, 2022 by Martin Armstrong
Goldman Sachs cut its 2022 forecast for China economic growth Tuesday in expectation of increased restrictions on business activity aimed at containing the omicron Covid variant. Consumption will likely be affected the most, while exports less so, the analysts said, as they assume limited disruptions to supply chains. They expect government policy easing to offset half of the drag from Covid restrictions and assume the negative impact will be concentrated in the first quarter.
The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today:
- NIKKEI 225 decreased 276.53 points or -0.96% to 28,489.13
- Shanghai decreased 42.17 points or -1.17% to 3,555.26
- Hang Seng increased 27.60 points or 0.11% to 24,429.77
- ASX 200 increased 35.50 points or 0.48% to 7,474.40
- Kospi decreased 10.39 points or 0.35% to 2,962.09
- SENSEX increased 85.26 points or 0.14% to 61,235.30
- Nifty50 increased 45.45 points or 0.25% to 18,257.80
The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:
- AUDUSD increased 0.00056 or 0.08% to 0.72909
- NZDUSD increased 0.00302 or 0.44% to 0.68781
- USDJPY decreased 0.57 or -0.50% to 114.09
- USDCNY decreased 0.00029 or -0.00% to 6.36207
- Gold decreased 4.05 USD/t oz. or -0.22% to 1,821.27
- Silver increased 0.038 USD/t. oz or 0.16% to 23.150
Some economic news from last night:
M2 Money Stock (YoY) decreased from 4.0% to 3.7%
M3 Money Supply (Dec) increased from 2,008.2T to 2,010.9T
Export Price Index (YoY) (Dec) decreased from 25.5% to 23.5%
Import Price Index (YoY) (Dec) decreased from 35.0% to 29.7%
Building Consents (MoM) (Nov) increased from -2.1% to 0.6%
Some economic news from today
Machine Tool Orders (YoY) decreased from 64.0% to 40.5%
The SaaS company Safeture AB in Lund has won, together with its partner Falck Global Assistance, a public procurement for a four-year framework agreement regarding travel risk management for the European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany. The agreement also opens up the opportunity to join other institutions, such as the Central Banks of the Eurosystem and other members of the Eurosystem Procurement Coordination Office (EPCO).
This year, European Central Bank is likely to keep adding to global liquidity, offsetting some of that tightening. That means that while the rate of expansion in the overall central bank liquidity pool has been slowing since mid-2021, an outright reduction of balance sheets is not expected until late-2022 or even 2023.
The major Europe stock markets had a mixed day:
- CAC 40 decreased 36.05 points or -0.50% to 7,201.14
- FTSE 100 increased 12.13 points or 0.16% to 7,563.85
- DAX 30 increased 21.27 points or 0.13% to 16.031.59
The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:
- EURUSD increased 0.00216 or 0.19% to 1.14639
- GBPUSD increased 0.00109 or 0.08% to 1.37195
- USDCHF decreased 0.00362 or -0.40% to 0.91052
Some economic news from Europe today:
Italian Industrial Production (YoY) (Nov) increased from 1.9% to 6.3%
Italian Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov) increased from -0.5% to 1.9%
Italy Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (Jan) decreased from 46.35 to 44.14
Germany Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (Jan) increased from 52.98 to 53.70
France Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (Jan) increased from 45.96 to 47.48
Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (Jan) decreased from 52.1 to 51.9
Unemployment unexpectedly rose in the US last week, according to the Labor Department. Initial claims came in at 230,000 compared to the expected 200,000. Claims from the week prior remain unchanged at 203,000. Continuing claims as of January 2 fell to 1.559 million compared to the expected 1.753 million expectation and the revised 1.753 million claims filed the week prior.
Wholesale prices in the US rose 0.2%, beneath the 0.4% estimate, according to the Labor Department. The Producer Price Index, however, on a 12-month basis is up 9.7%, which marks the highest increase on record. December’s reading declined from the previous two months that showed gains of 0.6% and 1% respectfully.
Quebec plans to implement a tax on the unvaccinated population. Although the exact amount has been undecided, Premier François Legault said the suggested tax of C$50 or C$100 was insignificant and that those who refuse the vaccine will be subject to a health contribution tax.
US Market Closings:
- Dow declined 176.7 points or -0.49% to 36,113.62
- S&P 500 declined 67.32 points or -1.42% to 4,659.03
- Nasdaq declined 381.58 points or -2.51% to 14,806.81
- Russell 2000 declined 16.62 points or -0.76% to 2,159.44
Canada Market Closings:
- TSX Composite declined 102.04 points or -0.48% to 21,292.98
- TSX 60 declined 6.61 points or -0.51% to 1,293.69
Brazil Market Closing:
- Bovespa declined 156.16 points or -0.15% to 105,529.5
The oil markets had a mixed day today:
- Crude Oil decreased 0.5 USD/BBL or -0.61% to 82.1300
- Brent decreased 0.23 USD/BBL or -0.27% to 84.4400
- Natural gas decreased 0.539 USD/MMBtu or -11.10% to 4.3180
- Gasoline decreased 0.0088 USD/GAL or -0.37% to 2.3820
- Heating oil increased 0.0079 USD/GAL or 0.30% to 2.6019
The above data was collected around 13:26 EST on Thursday
- Top commodity gainers: Orange Juice (4.55%) and Coal (2.20%), Palm Oil (2.42%), Lithium (2.54%)
- Top commodity losers: Natural Gas (-11.10%), Soybeans (-1.94%), Oat (-2.94%), and Rhodium (-2.96%)
The above data was collected around 13:35 EST on Thursday.
Japan 0.135%(+1.1bp), US 2’s 0.897% (-0.03%), US 10’s 1.72% (-3.17bps); US 30’s 2.0629% (-0.03%), Bunds -0.094% (-3.7bp), France 0.234% (-4bp), Italy 1.291% (-4bp), Turkey 22.90% (-13bp), Greece 1.531% (+0.2bp), Portugal 0.551% (-2bp); Spain 0.610% (-2.6bp) and UK Gilts 1.11% (-2.9bp).