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Market Talk – February 17, 2022

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Japan ran its biggest trade deficit in a single month in eight years in January as high energy costs swelled imports and manufacturers struggled with global supply constraints, causing a decline in car shipments. Imports soared 39.6% year-on-year in January to hit a record high in terms of their value in yen, coming to 8.5231 trillion yen ($73.81 billion), Ministry of Finance data showed on Thursday, above a median market forecast for a 37.1% increase. That greatly outstripped a 9.6% rise in exports in the year to January, bringing the trade balance to a deficit of 2.1911 trillion yen, its biggest in a single month since January 2014. The deficit was much bigger than the median estimate for a 1.607 trillion-yen shortfall.

The Indian economy is gaining momentum as it comes out of the relatively less virulent third Covid wave, which is in divergence with the global economic scenario, India’s central bank the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said in its state of the economy report. According to the report, this time better planning and strategy as well as better management of supply chain logistics, and accelerated digitization helped companies mitigate the impact of the third wave of the pandemic. Further, in February, mobility indicators recovered to pre-pandemic levels and unemployment rate dropped, with companies drawing up massive hiring plans, signs that the Indian economy is coming out of the third wave. Robust goods and service tax (GST) collection, toll collections, and e-way bill generations are all pointing towards a revival. The farm sector remains upbeat on the back of higher minimum support prices announced by the government. The manufacturing activity remains in expansion with optimism on demand parameters such as production volumes, new orders and job landscape during Q4FY22. Firms expect further improvement in capacity utilization and overall financial situation, the report stated.


The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today:

  • NIKKEI 225 decreased 227.53 points or -0.83% to 27,232.87
  • Shanghai increased 2.20 points or 0.06% to 3,468.04
  • Hang Seng increased 73.87 points or 0.30% to 24.792.77
  • ASX 200 increased 11.30 points or 0.16% to 7,296.20
  • Kospi increased 14.41 points or 0.53% to 2,744.09
  • SENSEX decreased 104.67 points or -0.18% to 57,892.01
  • Nifty50 decreased 17.60 points or -0.10% to 17,304.60


The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:

  • AUDUSD increased 0.00023 or 0.03% to 0.71971
  • NZDUSD increased 0.00189 or 0.28% to 0.67003
  • USDJPY decreased 0.315 or -0.27% to 115.027
  • USDCNY increased 0.00028 or 0.00% to 6.33260


Precious Metals:

  • Gold increased 29.81 USD/t oz. or 1.60% to 1,898.18
  • Silver increased 0.278 USD/t. oz or 1.18% to 23.820


Some economic news from last night:


Adjusted Trade Balance decreased from -0.55T to -0.93T

Core Machinery Orders (MoM) (Dec) increased from 3.4% to 3.6%

Core Machinery Orders (YoY) (Dec) decreased from 11.6% to 5.1%

Exports (YoY) (Jan)decreased from 17.5% to 9.6%

Foreign Bonds Buying decreased from -107.1B to -1,910.7B

Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks increased from -232.1B to -29.7B

Imports (YoY) (Jan) decreased from 41.1% to 39.6%

Trade Balance (Jan) decreased from -583.3B to -2,191.1B

South Korea:

M2 Money supply (Dec) increased from 9.80% to 10.20%


Employment Change (Jan) decreased from 64.8K to 12.9K

Full Employment Change (Jan) decreased from 41.5K to -17.0K

Participation Rate (Jan) increased from 66.1% to 66.2%

Unemployment Rate (Jan) emain the same at 4.2%

New Zealand:

RBNZ Offshore Holdings (Jan) increased from 51.80% to 52.60%


Non-Oil Exports (MoM) (Jan) increased from 2.60% to 5.00%

Non-Oil Exports (YoY) (Jan) decreased from 18.40% to 17.60%

Trade Balance increased from 4.992B to 5.022B



A prominent member of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council has said its net asset purchases could end in the third quarter of this year, but tweaks to the bank’s monetary policy could mean that rate hikes might not immediately follow. Francois Villeroy de Galhau, the governor of France’s central bank, told CNBC Tuesday that soaring inflation and geopolitical risks mean that the central bank should bring a level of “optionality” into its thinking when it meets again on March 10. Bond buying under the ECB’s 1.85 trillion euro ($2.19 trillion) Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme, or PEPP, is due to end in March. But purchases under the older Asset Purchase Programme, or APP, are being ramped up to serve as a quantitative easing bridge through the end of the PEPP.

Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) announced today that it has awarded framework agreement awards valued at USD 1.94bn to enable drilling growth. The awards build on ADNOC’s recent investments in drilling-related equipment and services while supporting its strategy to bolster crude oil production capacity to 5 million barrels per day by 2030 and drive gas self-sufficiency for the UAE. The framework agreements for wireline logging and perforation services are the largest of such awards in the oil and gas industry and were awarded to ADNOC Drilling, Schlumberger, Haliburton and Weatherford, following a competitive tender process.

The major Europe stock markets had a negative day:

  • CAC 40 decreased 18.16 points or -0.26% to 6,946.82
  • FTSE 100 decreased 66.41 points or -0.87% to 7,537.37
  • DAX 30 decreased 102.67 points or -0.67% to 15,267.63


The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:

  • EURUSD decreased 0.0011 or -0.10% to 1.13638
  • GBPUSD increased 0.00412 or 0.30% to 1.36257
  • USDCHF decreased 0.00166 or -0.18% to 0.91999



Some economic news from Europe today:


Car Registration (MoM) (Jan) increased from -6.1% to 6.0%

Car Registration (YoY) (Jan) increased from -18.2% to 27.5%


Italian Car Registration (MoM) (Jan) increased from -17.0% to 24.4%

Italian Car Registration (YoY) (Jan) increased from -27.5% to -19.7%

Italian Trade Balance decreased from 4.179B to 1.103B

Italian Trade Balance EU decreased from -0.04B to -3.64B


Trade Balance (Jan) decreased from 3.544B to 3.177B


German Car Registration (MoM) (Jan) decreased from 14.8% to -19.1%

German Car Registration (YoY) (Jan) increased from -26.9% to 8.5%


French Car Registration (MoM) (Jan) decreased from 29.6% to -34.9%

French Car Registration (YoY) (Jan) decreased from -15.1% to -18.6%


Spanish Trade Balance decreased from -4.20B to -5.30B


Wall Street turned red this Thursday as the markets process ongoing international political volatility. U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan believes Russia will invade Ukraine “any day now,” although the originally reported February 16 date proved to be false. The markets began to recover earlier in the week when it was reported that Russian troops were retreating. However, sources for the United Nations state that Russia is now close to an “imminent invasion.”

Unemployment claims in the US saw 248,000 new filings the week ending on February 12, surpassing expectations by 30,000 claims. Continuing claims, which run a week behind, came in at 1.593 million compared to the expected 1.605 million, while the week prior was revised to reflect 1.619 million filings.

US Market Closings:

  • Dow declined 622.24 points or -1.78% to 34,312.03
  • S&P 500 declined 94.75 points or -2.12% to 4,380.26
  • Nasdaq declined 407.38 points or -2.88% to 13,716.72
  • Russell 2000 declined 51.22 points or -2.46% to 2,028.09


Canada Market Closings:

  • TSX Composite declined 207.31 points or -0.97% to 21,176.33
  • TSX 60 declined 12.84 points or -0.99% to 1,281.53


Brazil Market Closing:

  • Bovespa declined 1,652.47 points or -1.43% to 113,528.48



Brent oil prices are primed to rise above $100 per barrel later this year, Goldman Sachs analysts said, adding oil market remains in a “surprisingly large deficit” as demand hit from the Omicron coronavirus variant is so far smaller than expected. The hit to demand from Omicron will likely be offset by gas-to-oil substitution, increased supply disruptions, OPEC+ shortfalls, and disappointing production in Brazil and Norway, the analysts wrote in a note dated Monday. Global oil demand is seen rising 3.5 million barrels per day (bpd) year-on-year in 2022, with fourth-quarter demand reaching 101.6 million bpd.

The oil markets had a negative day today:


  • Crude Oil decreased 2.04 USD/BBL or -2.18% to 91.6200
  • Brent decreased 1.89 USD/BBL or -1.99% to 92.9200
  • Natural gas decreased 0.245 USD/MMBtu or -5.19% to 4.4720
  • Gasoline decreased 0.0462 USD/GAL or -1.73% to 2.6309
  • Heating oil decreased 0.0602 USD/GAL or -2.11% to 2.7973


The above data was collected around 12:40 EST on Thursday


  • Top commodity gainers: Wheat (1.79%) and Orange Juice (1.81%), Platinum (2.47%), Palladium (3.11%)
  • Top commodity losers: Natural Gas (-5.19%), Tea (-2.40%), Crude Oil(-2.18%) and Heating Oil (-2.11%)


The above data was collected around 12:57 EST on Thursday.




Japan 0.224%(+0.9bp), US 2’s 1.4765% (-0.05%), US 10’s 1.9806% (-5.93bps); US 30’s 2.3109% (-0.03%), Bunds 0.229% (-4.3bp), France 0.703% (-4.9bp), Italy 1.849% (-6.8bp), Turkey 20.91% (+0bp), Greece 2.666% (+0.2bp), Portugal 1.146% (-0.4bp); Spain 1.291% (-2.5bp) and UK Gilts 1.4640% (-6.2bp).