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Market Talk – February 12, 2021

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US President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping held their first phone call as leaders and appeared at odds on most issues, even as Xi warned that confrontation would be a “disaster” for both nations. While Biden’s Chinese counterpart Xi has called for “win-win” cooperation, he has called China America’s “most serious competitor” and vowed to “out-compete” Beijing. On Thursday, Biden told a bipartisan group of US senators about the need to upgrade US infrastructure and that the United States must raise its game in the face of the Chinese challenge.

India’s central bank, the Reserve Bank of India, tightened the rules governing investments in non-bank lenders originating from countries that are not compliant with global standards on the prevention of money laundering. “Investments in non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) from FATF non-compliant jurisdictions shall not be treated at par with that from the compliant jurisdictions,” RBI said. FATF, or the Financial Action Task Force, is the inter-governmental watchdog for global money laundering and terrorist financing. According to a report published last October, the central bank said financial companies could not be set up with foreign direct investment from Mauritius or other countries that are non-FATF compliant.

The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today:

  • NIKKEI 225 decreased 42.86 points or -0.14% to 29,520.07
  • Shanghai closed
  • Hang Seng closed
  • ASX 200 decreased 43.40 points or -0.63% to 6,806.70
  • Kospi closed
  • SENSEX increased 12.78 points or 0.02% to 51,544.30
  • Nifty50 decreased 10.00 points or -0.07% to 15,163.30


The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:

  • AUDUSD increased 0.00067 or 0.09% to 0.77556
  • NZDUSD decreased 0.00116 or -0.16% to 0.72181
  • USDJPY increased 0.21 or 0.20% to 104.96
  • USDCNY increased 0.00035 or 0.01% to 6.42302


Precious Metals:

  • Gold decreased 5.77 USD/t oz. or -0.32% to 1,819.59
  • Silver increased 0.32 USD/t. oz or 1.19% to 27.267


Some economic news from last night:


China Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (Feb) decreased from 77.74 to 67.37


Foreign Bonds Buying increased from 727.7B to 1,027.5B

Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks increased from -187.6B to 462.5B

Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (Feb) increased from 34.84 to 35.84

New Zealand:

Business NZ PMI (Jan) increased from 48.7 to 57.5

FPI (MoM) (Jan) increased from 0.1% to 1.3%


Some economic news from today:


Bank Loan Growth decreased from 6.4% to 5.9%

Deposit Growth decreased from 11.4% to 11.1%

FX Reserves, USD decreased from 590.19B to 583.95B

CPI (YoY) (Jan) decreased from 4.59% to 4.06%

Cumulative Industrial Production (Dec) increased from -15.50% to -13.50%

Industrial Production (YoY) (Dec) increased from -2.1% to 1.0%

Manufacturing Output (MoM) (Dec) increased from -2.0% to 1.6%


Britain’s economy experienced its biggest annual decline in 300 years in 2020 amid the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic but will avoid a double-dip recession, according to official figures. The Office for National Statistics said gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 9.9% in 2020, as no sector of the economy was left unscathed by lockdowns and plummeting demand during the pandemic. It was the biggest fall in annual GDP since the Great Frost of 1709, when the economy shrank by 13%. Pubs, bars and restaurants were able to recover some lost ground, and retail sales improved in December after the November lockdown ended and before tougher measures were imposed. Growth was also fuelled by a rise in healthcare activity, mainly because of coronavirus test-and-trace schemes across the UK.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel wants a gradual reopening of shuttered stores and hotels next month as long as the coronavirus infection rate continues to fall in Europe’s biggest economy. Passengers traveling to the UK will face tougher quarantine measures, including enforced stays in hotels, repeated tests, and the threat of fines as authorities seek to get a grip on the coronavirus pandemic.

The major Europe stock markets had a green day:

  • CAC 40 increased 33.85 points or 0.60% to 5,703.67
  • FTSE 100 increased 61.07 points or 0.94% to 6,589.79
  • DAX 30 increased 8.98 points or 0.06% to 14,049.89


The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:

  • EURUSD decreased 0.00132 or -0.11% to 1.21174
  • GBPUSD increased 0.004 or 0.29% to 1.38501
  • USDCHF increased 0.00178 or 0.20% to 0.89195


Some economic news from Europe today:


NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker decreased from 1.0% to -2.5%

NIESR GDP Estimate decreased from 1.0% to -2.5%

Business Investment (YoY) (Q4) increased from -11.6% to -10.3%

Business Investment (QoQ) (Q4) decreased from 14.5% to 1.3%

Construction Output (MoM) (Dec) decreased from 1.7% to -2.9%

U.K. Construction Output (YoY) (Dec) decreased from -2.0% to -3.7%

GDP (QoQ) (Q4) decreased from 16.1% to 1.0%

GDP (YoY) (Q4) increased from -8.7% to -7.8%

Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec) decreased from 0.3% to 0.2%

Industrial Production (YoY) (Dec) increased from -3.9% to -3.3%

Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Dec) decreased from 1.1% to 0.3%

Manufacturing Production (YoY) (Dec) increased from -2.6% to -2.5%

Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change decreased from 4.1% to 1.0%

Trade Balance (Dec) increased from -14.79B to -14.32B

Trade Balance Non-EU (Dec) increased from -5.88B to -5.20B


GDP (QoQ) (Q4) decreased from 4.5% to 0.6%

GDP Mainland (QoQ) (Q4) decreased from 5.0% to 1.9%


CPI (MoM) (Jan) increased from -0.1% to 0.1%

CPI (YoY) (Jan) increased from -0.8% to -0.5%


Spanish CPI (MoM) (Jan) decreased from 0.2% to 0.0%

Spanish CPI (YoY) (Jan) increased from -0.5% to 0.5%

Spanish HICP (MoM) (Jan) decreased from 0.2% to -0.4%

Spanish HICP (YoY) (Jan) decreased from 0.6% to 0.4%



The National Retail Federation (NRF) is expecting a decline in Valentine’s Day spending this year. American consumers, on average, are expected to spend $165 for the holiday, marking a $32 YoY decrease. The association believes a decrease in dine-in restaurants will account for a $1.5 billion decline this year, after a poll stated that only 24% of couples are planning to dine out this Sunday. However, the NRF anticipates young adults (18-24) to spend considerably more this year, with a spike from $109 to $184 YoY.

US lawmakers passed a $14 billion relief package for struggling airlines. The House of Representatives Financial Services Committee approved the measure in a 29-24 vote. American Airlines stated that the payroll support relief is “a lifeline for our team members.” American Airlines furloughed 19,000 employees after the first round of aid expired in October, but brought back most employees in December. The company was preparing to furlough an additional 14,000 workers in April, but the new measure should prevent massive job losses.

As Salesforce announced earlier in the week, “The 9-to-5 workday is dead.” Spotify announced that it is adapting a “work from anywhere” model. “The ultimate goal of our new design approach is to ensure that employees have a place where they can focus, collaborate, and create—whether that’s at a desk, in a conference room, or in cafe spaces,” the company stated on Friday. Numerous large companies such as Facebook, Twitter, Square, and Salesforce have announced similar policies.

Brazil’s economy contracted -4.05% during 2020, according to new data by the central bank. The decline is in line with the government’s forecast of a -4.5% decline. GDP rose 0.64% in December, surpassing forecasts of 0.4%. Economy Minister Paulo Guedes expects Latin America’s largest economy to recovery in a “V-shaped” fashion, and could advance by 4% in 2021.

US Market Closings:

  • Dow advanced 27.7 points or 0.09% to 31,458.4
  • S&P 500 advanced 18.45 points or 0.47% to 3,934.83
  • Nasdaq advanced 69.7 points or 0.5% to 14,095.47
  • Russell 2000 advanced 4.04 points or 0.18% to 2,289.36

Canada Market Closings:

  • TSX Composite advanced 67.22 points or 0.37% to 18,460.21
  • TSX 60 advanced 4.1 points or 0.38% to 1,095.14

Brazil Market Closing:

  • Bovespa advanced 128.89 points or 0.11% to 119,428.72


The oil markets had a green day today:


  • Crude Oil increased 1.35 USD/BBL or 2.32% to 59.5900
  • Brent increased 1.44 USD/BBL or 2.36% to 62.5800
  • Natural gas increased 0.047 USD/MMBtu or 1.64% to 2.9150
  • Gasoline increased 0.0399 USD/GAL or 2.42% to 1.6901
  • Heating oil increased 0.0295 USD/GAL or 1.69% to 1.7741


  • Top commodity gainers: Crude Oil (2.32%), Brent (2.36%), Gasoline (2.42%) and Canola (4.10%)
  • Top commodity losers: Rice (-0.62%), Coffee (-0.58%), Orange Juice (-0.40%), and Sugar (-1.21%)


The above data was collected around 16:25 EST on Friday.


Japan 0.07%(-1bp), US 2’s 0.11%(-0.002%), US 10’s 1.21%(+5bps); US 30’s 2.00%(+0.06%), Bunds -0.45% (+4bp), France -0.23% (+0bp), Italy 0.48% (+3bp), Turkey 12.57% (+0bp), Greece 0.75% (-1bp), Portugal 0.12% (+4bp); Spain 0.17% (+5bp) and UK Gilts 0.53% (+6bp).