Market Talk – Close of July 15, 2016

Market-Talk -R

Asian markets finished small mixed but is the end of what has been an impressive week for the Nikkei. Japan closing the day +0.7% and on the week closes +9%. From China we saw a host of economic data from marginal better growth (+6.7% against an expected +6.6%) and Retail Sales (for June) up 10.6% on the year. It really has been an exhausting week for many markets especially when seasonal activity is normally quite light. JPY has traded from 100 to over 106 this week so will look over the weekend on the closing Reversal numbers.

A fairly subdued day for European stock markets probably as many reflect on the horrors that occurred late last evening in Nice. We did see core markets drift into the weekend with small declines seen across the board. In the US Retail Sales had a strong beat (+0.6% against an expected +0.1%); Consumer Prices beat whilst Consumer Confidence faltered.

Late in US trading we hear of a possible military coup happening in Ankara, Turkey as tanks were reported surrounding the airport. Stocks dipped, gold rallied, the Turkish Lira was hit and the US Dollar adopted a bid. Weekend headlines will certainly move markets first thing on Monday morning so we will be watching closely late Sunday evening.

US Bonds eventually closed little changed but the Turkey news appeared late in the day. 2/10 US closed 88bp, with 10’s at 1.55%. In Europe the German 10yr Bund closed 0% (+4.5bp) which closes the US/German yield spread at +155bp.Italy closed 1.25% (+4bp), Greece 7.64% (-1bp), Turkey (ahead of the news) 8.88% (+5bp), Portugal 3.10% (+2bp) and UK Gilt 10yr at 0.83% (+4bp).

Turkish Lira lost 5% in the final 30 mins of Friday trading before the markets closed for the weekend.