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Market Talk – April 9, 2021

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International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief economist Gita Gopinath has said its 2021 GDP numbers for India were locked on March 5, around the same time the country started seeing an upsurge in Covid-19 cases and that there could be a downward risk if the country goes for a nationwide lockdown. The IMF this week had raised its growth forecast for the Indian economy by 100 basis points to 12.5% for the fiscal year 2021-22. The international monetary body expects India’s GDP to grow 12.5% in FY22, the highest among emerging and advanced economies. GDP growth for FY23 is pegged at 6.9%.

The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today:

  • NIKKEI 225 increased 59.08 points or 0.20% to 29,768.06
  • Shanghai decreased 31.88 points or -0.92% to 3,450.68
  • Hang Seng decreased 309.27 points or -1.07% to 28,698.80
  • ASX 200 decreased 3.60 points or -0.05% to 6,995.20
  • Kospi decreased 11.38 points or -0.36% to 3,131.88
  • SENSEX decreased 154.89 points or -0.31% to 49,591.32
  • Nifty50 decreased 38.95 points or -0.26% to 14,834.85

The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:

  • AUDUSD decreased 0.00318 or -0.42% to 0.76249
  • NZDUSD decreased 0.00176 or -0.25% to 0.70439
  • USDJPY increased 0.28 or 0.26% to 109.61
  • USDCNY increased 0.00188 or 0.03% to 6.55828

Precious Metals:

  • Gold decreased 10.85 USD/t oz. or -0.62% to 1,745.09
  • Silver decreased 0.17 USD/t. oz or -0.66% to 25.262

Some economic news from last night:


CPI (MoM) (Mar) decreased from 0.6% to -0.5%

CPI (YoY) (Mar) increased from -0.2% to 0.4%

PPI (YoY) (Mar) increased from 1.7% to 4.4%


AIG Services Index (Mar) increased from 55.8 to 58.7

Building Approvals (MoM) increased from -19.4% to 21.6%


Some economic news from today:


Bank Loan Growth decreased from 6.5% to 5.6%

Deposit Growth decreased from 12.1% to 11.4%

FX Reserves, USD decreased from 579.29B to 576.87B


Consumer Confidence (Mar) increased from 85.8 to 93.4

Hong Kong:

Foreign Reserves (USD) (Mar) decreased from 495.70B to 491.30B



Britain’s construction sector has had its sharpest pick-up in activity since 2014 amid signs that the domestic economy is recovering more quickly than Brexit- and pandemic-affected trade flows, new figures have shown. The latest snapshot of the construction sector, which accounts for around 6% of total UK output, pointed to an across-the-board increase in March, with house-building, commercial projects and infrastructure work all displaying strong growth.

The major Europe stock markets had a mixed day:

  • CAC 40 increased 3.69 points or 0.06% to 6,169.41
  • FTSE 100 decreased 26.47 points or -0.38% to 6,915.75
  • DAX 30 increased 31.48 points or 0.21% to 15,234.16


The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:

  • EURUSD decreased 0.00071 or -0.06% to 1.19082
  • GBPUSD decreased 0.00025 or -0.02% to 1.37316
  • USDCHF increased 0.00033 or 0.04% to 0.92451


Some economic news from Europe today:


Unemployment Rate n.s.a. (Mar) decreased from 3.6% to 3.4%

Unemployment Rate s.a. (Mar) decreased from 3.4% to 3.3%


Gemran Current Account Balance n.s.a (Feb) increased from 17.6B to 18.8B

German Exports (MoM) (Feb) decreased from 1.6% to 0.9%

German Imports (MoM) (Feb) increased from -3.5% to 3.6%

German Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb) increased from -2.0% to -1.6%

German Trade Balance (Feb) decreased from 21.2B to 19.1B


Core CPI YTD (Mar) remain the same at 2.7%

Core Inflation (MoM) (Mar) decreased from 0.4% to 0.3%

CPI (YoY) (Mar) decreased from 3.3% to 3.1%

CPI (MoM) (Mar) decreased from 0.7% to -0.3%

PPI (YoY) (Mar) increased from 9.7% to 18.4%


French Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb) decreased from 3.2% to -4.7%

French Reserve Assets Total (Mar) decreased from 183,152.0M to 182.839.0M


Spanish Industrial Production (YoY) (Feb) increased from -2.3% to -2.1%


Halifax House Price Index (YoY) increased from 5.2% to 6.5%

Halifax House Price Index (MoM) (Mar) increased from 0.0% to 1.1%


Italian Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) increased from -2.7% to 6.6%

Italian Retail Sales (YoY) (Feb) increased from -6.7% to -5.7%


Wall Street concluded the week on a bullish note this Friday after both the Dow and S&P 500 closed at all-time highs. The Dow closed over 297 points higher, advancing to 33,800.6; the S&P 500 secured an additional 31 points, spiking the index to 4,128.8. Honeywell’s 3.23% advancement helped both indexes push forward today. United Health (3.12%), Salesforce (3.04%), and Apple (2.02%) contributed to the Dow’s historic day of trading. PVH Corp (5.68%) elevated the S&P 500, as did Tapestry Inc (3.597%), Cigna (3.29%), and Gap (3.279%).

Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan admitted today that the Fed’s bond-buying program may not be sustainable in the longterm. Kaplan said that he does not want to be “preemptive” as the central bank waits for unemployment to decline and inflation to rise. However, he noted that he has concerns about policy being “so reactive that we are late.” Once the aftermath of the pandemic’s effects on the economy begins to lessen, Kaplan said he will advocate against “some of the Fed’s extraordinary actions,” starting with the bond-buying program.

Amazon defeated the unionization effort in Alabama today with a vote of 738 in favor versus 1,798 in opposition. The online retail giant would have needed 1,608 votes to move forward with creating a union for workers. Those in favor are now requesting a recount and claims that Amazon distrupted the election by encouraging employees to vote “no” through marketing materials and setting up newly installed voting mailboxes near their warehouse.

Unemployment is declining in Canada according to new data released by Statistics Canada this Friday. The nation’s unemployment rate dropped to 7.5% in March after adding an additional 303,000 jobs. In comparison, the unemployment rate stoof at 8.2% in February, which saw a gain of only 259,000 positons. However, new lockdown measures have many concerned about the near-term future of the Canadian workforce. Even with March’s increase, the nation is still 1.5% beneath it’s pre-pandemic level of unemployment.

US Market Closings:

  • Dow advanced 297.03 points or 0.89% to 33,800.6
  • S&P 500 advanced 31.63 points or 0.77% to 4,128.8
  • Nasdaq advanced 70.88 points or 0.51% to 13,900.18
  • Russell 2000 advanced 0.88 of a point or 0.04% to 2,243.47

Canada Market Closings:

  • TSX Composite declined -0.84 of a point or 0% to 19,228.03
  • TSX 60 advanced 0.3 of a point or 0.3% to 1,145.49

Brazil Market Closing:

  • Bovespa declined 643.33 points or -0.54% to 117,669.9



The oil markets had a mixed day today:

Crude Oil decreased 0.34 USD/BBL or -0.57% to 59.2600

Brent decreased 0.20 USD/BBL or -0.32% to 63.0000

Natural gas increased 0.00 USD/MMBtu or 0.00% to 2.5230

Gasoline decreased 0.01 USD/GAL or -0.52% to 1.9491

Heating oil decreased 0.00 USD/GAL or -0.25% to 1.8052


  • Top commodity gainers: Wheat (1.47%), Cotton (0.77%), Lumber (2.04%) and Sugar (2.24%)
  • Top commodity losers: Platinum (-2.19%), Feeder Cattle (-1.16%), Coal (-1.42%), and Rubber (-3.86%)


The above data was collected around 13:59 EST on Friday.



Japan 0.10%(+1bp), US 2’s 0.15%(+0.006%), US 10’s 1.65%(+2bps); US 30’s 2.33%(+0.006%), Bunds -0.31% (+2bp), France -0.08% (-0bp), Italy 0.75% (+8bp), Turkey 17.56% (+3bp), Greece 0.90% (+7bp), Portugal 0.29% (+5bp); Spain 0.38% (+4bp) and UK Gilts 0.78% (+3bp).