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Market Talk – April 30, 2021

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The US and China have long had a tumultuous relationship, but now Beijing has said that it would like to remain diplomatic partners with the US so long as the nation respects its domestic policies. “It is normal for China and the US to have some differences, but the key is to have mutual respect, equal treatment, and control and handle China-US relations in a constructive way to ensure it is on the right path of development.” Beijing’s top diplomat Yang Jiechi stated. Jiechi said China would “definitely not” accept anyone challenging their current Communist party and also stated it did not intend to impose its communistic policies on other countries.

As tensions rise between Taipei and Beijing, Taiwan officials have asked companies to remove all listings for jobs in mainland China. According to Taiwan’s labor ministry, foreign and Taiwanese staffing companies may no longer employ Chinese workers, especially in fields such as semiconductors and integrated circuits. The ministry said that due to a global chip shortage, China “has become more aggressive in poaching and targeting top Taiwanese chip talent to help build a self-sufficient supply chain.”

India has extended its travel ban on international flights until May 31 due to an increase in coronavirus cases. Yesterday, the US Department of State has issued a level 4 (highest warning) travel risk for India. “Access to medical care is severely limited due to COVID-19 cases,” the department tweeted. American citizens are being urged “not to travel to India or to leave as soon as it is safe to do so.” This follows Australia’s complete ban on flights from India and the UK’s temporary ban on anyone who has visited the nation in the past 10 days. The UAE and Canada have implemented similar bans.


The major Asian stock markets had a negative day today:

  • NIKKEI 225 decreased 241.34 points or -0.83% to 28,812.63
  • Shanghai decreased 28.04 points or -0.81% to 3,446.86
  • Hang Seng decreased 578.38 points or -1.97% to 28,724.88
  • ASX 200 decreased 56.50 points or -0.80% to 7,025.80
  • Kospi decreased 26.21 points or -0.83% to 3,147.86
  • SENSEX decreased 983.58 points or -1.98% to 48,782.36
  • Nifty50 decreased 263.80 points or -1.77% to 14,631.10



The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:

  • AUDUSD decreased 0.00616 or -0.79% to 0.77145
  • NZDUSD decreased 0.00778 or -1.07% to 0.71682
  • USDJPY increased 0.47 or 0.44% to 109.34
  • USDCNY increased 0.00589 or 0.09% to 6.46916


Precious Metals:

  • Gold decreased 3.83 USD/t oz. or -0.22% to 1,767.41
  • Silver decreased 0.18 USD/t. oz or -0.70% to 25.901


Some economic news from last night:


Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Apr) increased from 50.6 to 51.9

Chinese Composite PMI (Apr) decreased from 55.3 to 53.8

Manufacturing PMI (Apr) decreased from 51.9 to 51.1

Non-Manufacturing PMI (Apr) decreased from 56.3 to 54.9


Jobs/applications ratio (Mar) increased from 1.09 to 1.10

Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Apr) decreased from -0.1% to -0.2%

Tokyo CPI (YoY) (Apr) decreased from -0.2% to -0.6%

CPI Tokyo Ex Food and Energy (MoM) (Apr) decreased from 0.2% to -0.4%

Unemployment Rate (Mar) decreased from 2.9% to 2.6%

Foreign Bonds Buying decreased from 1,006.3B to 132.8B

Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks increased from 288.3B to 492.2B

Industrial Production (MoM) increased from -1.3% to 2.2%

Industrial Production forecast 1m ahead (MoM) (Apr) increased from -1.9% to 8.4%

Industrial Production forecast 2m ahead (MoM) (May) decreased from 9.3% to -4.3%

Manufacturing PMI (Apr) increased from 52.7 to 53.6

South Korea:

Industrial Production (YoY) (Mar) increased from 0.9% to 4.7%

Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar) decreased from 4.4% to -0.8%

Retail Sales (MoM) increased from -0.8% to 2.3%

Service Sector Output (MoM) (Mar) increased from 1.1% to 1.2%


Housing Credit (Mar) increased from 0.4% to 0.5%

PPI (YoY) (Q1) increased from -0.1% to 0.2%

PPI (QoQ) (Q1) decreased from 0.5% to 0.4%

Private Sector Credit (MoM) (Mar) increased from 0.2% to 0.4%


Bank Lending (Mar) increased from 686.7B to 691.2B


Some economic news from today:


FX Reserves, USD increased from 582.41B to 584.11B

Infrastructure Output (YoY) increased from -4.6% to 6.8%


Construction Orders (YoY) (Mar) increased from 2.5% to 12.5%

Household Confidence (Apr) decreased from 36.1 to 34.7

Housing Starts (YoY) (Mar) increased from -3.7% to 1.5%


Business Expectations (Q1) increased from 32.00 to 38.00

Hong Kong:

M3 Money Supply (Mar) decreased from 10.3% to 9.1%



The European economy contracted 0.6% during Q1 of 2021, marking the second consecutive quarter of a deteriorating situation. France was an outlier among the 19-nation bloc after posting a growth of 0.4% for Q1. Germany, once Europe’s economic powerhouse, shrank -1.7% due to lockdowns, a weakened manufacturing sector, and lockdowns impacting travel and the service sector. Europe’s overall unemployment stoof at 8.1% in March due to furlough programs that have kept people afloat. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) foresees the European economy growing 4.4% in 2021.


Italy’s Telecom Italia is seeking to end its partnership with China’s Huawei. Telecom Italia is one of Huawei’s largest 5G clients in Europe, and losing this business would be ablow to the company. Huawei has come under fire for potential security threats with the US warning other nations not to do business with the 5G giant and Sweden and Britain outright banning the equipment.


Germany’s intelligence agency is watching “anti-lockdown activists” in order to determine if they are attempting a coup. The Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) states that members of the “Querkenker” (English for “thinking outside the box”) group would be placed under watch for promoting conspiracy theories and anti-vaccine skepticism. The organization also claimed the group was responsible for anti-lockdown violent protests.


The major Europe stock markets had a mixed day:

  • CAC 40 decreased 33.09 points or -0.53% to 6,269.48
  • FTSE 100 increased 8.33 points or 0.12% to 6,969.81
  • DAX 30 decreased 18.29 points or -0.12% to 15,135.91


The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:

  • EURUSD decreased 0.00912 or -0.75% to 1.20316
  • GBPUSD decreased 0.01181 or -0.85% to 1.38335
  • USDCHF increased 0.0039 or 0.43% to 0.91285


Some economic news from Europe today:


French GDP (QoQ) (Q1) increased from -1.4% to 0.4%

French Consumer Spending (MoM) (Mar) decreased from 0.3% to -1.1%

French CPI (YoY) increased from 1.1% to 1.3%

French CPI (MoM) (Apr) decreased from 0.6% to 0.2%

French HICP (MoM) (Apr) decreased from 0.7% to 0.3%

French HICP (YoY) (Apr) increased from 1.4% to 1.7%

French PPI (MoM) (Mar) increased from 0.9% to 1.0%


Credit Indicator (YoY) (Mar) increased from 4.9% to 5.0%

Central Bank Currency Purchase (May) remain the same at -1,800.0M

Unemployment Change (Apr) decreased from 129.50K to 127.44K

Unemployment Rate n.s.a. (Apr) decreased from 4.20% to 4.00%


Nationwide HPI (YoY) (Apr) increased from 5.7% to 7.1%

Nationwide HPI (MoM) (Apr) increased from -0.3% to 2.1%


German GDP (YoY) (Q1) decreased from -2.3% to -3.3%

German GDP (QoQ) (Q1) decreased from 0.5% to -1.7%


Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate (Mar) decreased from 10.2% to 10.1%

Italian GDP (QoQ) (Q1) increased from -1.8% to -0.4%

Italian GDP (YoY) (Q1) increased from -6.6% to -1.4%

Italian CPI (MoM) (Apr) increased from 0.3% to 0.4%

Italian CPI (YoY) (Apr) increased from 0.8% to 1.1%

Italian HICP (MoM) (Apr) decreased from 1.8% to 0.9%

Italian HICP (YoY) (Apr) increased from 0.6% to 1.0%


Spanish GDP (YoY) (Q1) increased from -8.9% to -4.3%

Spanish GDP (QoQ) (Q1) decreased from 0.0% to -0.5%

Spanish Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar) increased from -6.1% to 14.9%

Spanish Current account (Feb) decreased from -1.01B to -1.71B


KOF Leading Indicators (Apr) increased from 118.0 to 134.0

Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar) increased from -6.6% to 22.6%

Euro Zone:

CPI (YoY) (Apr) increased from 1.3% to 1.6%

CPI (MoM) decreased from 0.9% to 0.6%

CPI, n.s.a (Apr) increased from 106.53 to 107.16

GDP (YoY) increased from -4.9% to -1.8%

GDP (QoQ) increased from -0.7% to -0.6%

HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) (Apr) decreased from 1.0% to 0.8%

HICP ex Energy and Food (MoM) decreased from 0.8% to 0.65

Unemployment Rate (Mar) decreased from 8.2% to 8.1%


Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan went against the grain this Friday and declared that the Fed must begin to taper Quantitative Easing (QE). “We are now at a point where I’m observing excesses and imbalances in financial markets,” Kaplan stated while highlighting the historic real estate market, uptick in consumer spending, and bullish stock market. “I do think, at the earliest opportunity, I think it would be appropriate for us to start talking about adjusting those purchases,” he stated in reference to the $120 million monthly bond buy back purchases that many have been reluctant to outright claim QE.

Housing demand is up, inventory is low, and the cost to build a house just became increasingly expensive. Lumber prices continue to hit new all-time highs and are currently up 340% YoY. In the US, it now costs an additional $35,872 to build a single-family home due to lumber soaring in price, and multifamily homes cost $12,966. Other building materials such as drywall (7% YoY) and steel (18% YoY) are driving prices. Copper hit an all-time high this month and is up 27% YTD. In addition to the high price of building materials, land prices are up 11% per lot YoY due to demand and supply, which is down 20% YoY.

Brazil’s Health Minister Marcelo Queiroga is urging nations to share any extra coronavirus vaccines as the country as soon as possible. “We reiterate our call to those who have extra doses of vaccines so that they can share them with Brazil as soon as possible to allow us to succeed in advancing our broad vaccination campaign to contain the critical phase of the pandemic and avoid the proliferation of new strains and variants of the virus,” Queiroga said. Although the nation promised to vaccinate the entire population by the end of the year, only 6% of the population has received the vaccine. Brazil has been relying on CoronaVac and AstraZeneca vaccinations, but plans to implement Pfzier’s vaccine next week.

US Market Closings:

  • Dow declined 181.89 points or -0.53% to 33,878.47
  • S&P 500 declined 30.16 points or -0.72% to 4,181.31
  • Nasdaq declined 119.86 points or -0.85% to 13,962.68
  • Russell 2000 declined 29.01 points or -1.26% 2,266.45


Canada Market Closings:

  • TSX Composite declined 147.59 points or 0.77% to 19,108.33
  • TSX 60 declined 9.1 points or -0.79% to 1,138.85


Brazil Market Closing:

  • Bovespa declined 1,171.91 points or -0.98% to 118,893.84




The oil markets had a mixed day today:


  • Crude Oil decreased 1.35 USD/BBL or -2.08% to 63.6600
  • Brent decreased 1.31 USD/BBL or -1.91% to 67.2500
  • Natural gas increased 0.021 USD/MMBtu or 0.72% to 2.9320
  • Gasoline decreased 0.0305 USD/GAL or -1.45% to 2.0694
  • Heating oil decreased 0.0392 USD/GAL or -2.00% to 1.9222



  • Top commodity gainers: Rubber (5.98%), Corn (2.35%), Bitumen (2.04%) and Tin (2.29%)
  • Top commodity losers: Cocoa (-5.49%), Crude Oil (-2.08%), Heating Oil (-2.00%), and Brent (-1.91%)


The above data was collected around 13:04 EST on Friday.




Japan 0.0970%(+0bp), US 2’s 0.16%(-0.004%), US 10’s 1.6259%(-1.41bps); US 30’s 2.2982%(-0.01%), Bunds -0.1920% (+0bp), France 0.155% (-0.2bp), Italy 0.8650% (-1.1bp), Turkey 17.79% (+3bp), Greece 0.99% (+1bp), Portugal 0.483% (+0.1bp); Spain 0.475% (-0.28bp) and UK Gilts 0.842% (-0.2bp).