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Market Talk – April 27, 2021

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China is set to report its first population decline since records began in 1949 despite the relaxation of the government’s strict family planning policies, which was meant to reverse the falling birth rate of the world’s most populous country. The latest Chinese census, which was completed in December but has yet to be made public, is expected to report the total population of the country at less than 1.4 billion, according to people familiar with the research. In 2019, China’s population was reported to have exceeded the 1.4 billion mark. The government was scheduled to release the census in early April. Liu Aihua, a spokesperson at the National Bureau of Statistics, said on April 16 that the delay was partly due to the need for “more preparation work” ahead of the official announcement. The delay has been widely criticized on social media.

India’s economic activity has held up well against the recent spike in COVID-19 cases, but the rise in infections risks protracted restrictions and inflationary pressures, the central bank (RBI) said in its monthly bulletin on Monday. The country still has localized lockdowns in some states to contain the spread of the virus but stricter norms could disrupt supply chains and add to inflation concerns as they did in 2020. The RBI, however, is hopeful the economic recovery will continue based on data points like early corporate earnings, and steady rises in capacity utilization and electricity consumption. The RBI has repeatedly assured bond markets that it would ensure ample liquidity in the banking system and help smoothly execute the government’s massive 12.06 trillion rupees ($161.15 billion) market borrowing program.

The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today:

  • NIKKEI 225 decreased 134.34 points or -0.46% to 28,991.89
  • Shanghai increased 1.45 points or 0.04% to 3,442.61
  • Hang Seng decreased 11.29 points or -0.04% to 28,941.54
  • ASX 200 decreased 11.80 points or -0.17% to 7,033.80
  • Kospi decreased 2.11 points or -0.07% to 3,215.42
  • SENSEX increased 557.63 points or 1.15% to 48,944.14
  • Nifty50 increased 168.05 points or 1.16% to 14,653.05



The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:

  • AUDUSD decreased 0.00283 or -0.36% to 0.77703
  • NZDUSD decreased 0.00201 or -0.28% to 0.72113
  • USDJPY increased 0.46 or 0.43% to 108.64
  • USDCNY increased 0.00326 or 0.05% to 6.47866


Precious Metals:

  • Gold decreased 1.49 USD/t oz. or -0.08% to 1,778.70
  • Silver increased 0.15 USD/t. oz or 0.58% to 26.362


Some economic news from last night:


Chinese Industrial profit (YoY) (Mar) increased from 20.10% to 92.30%

Chinese Industrial profit YTD (Mar) decreased from 178.9% to 137.3%


BoJ Interest Rate Decision remain the same at -0.10%

South Korea:

GDP (QoQ) (Q1) increased from 1.2% to 1.6%

GDP (YoY) (Q1) increased from -1.2% to 1.8%


Some economic news from today:


BoJ Core CPI (YoY) increased from -0.2% to 0.0%

Hong Kong:

Trade Balance decreased from -14.7B to -27.0B

Exports (MoM) (Mar) decreased from 30.4% to 26.4%

Imports (MoM) (Mar) increased from 17.6% to 21.7%



European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that the European Union “will not hesitate” to take action against the UK under the terms of the post-Brexit trade deal. MEPs on Tuesday night voted on whether to approve the EU-UK post-Brexit trade deal, with a result to be announced on Wednesday morning. The deal has provisionally been in force since the end of the transition period on January 1, but – without yet having received an approving vote by the European Parliament – is still to be fully ratified.

France and Germany together laid out plans for billions in spending from the European Union’s pandemic recovery fund aimed at fighting climate change and boosting the use of digital technology across the economy. The finance ministers of the EU’s two biggest economies on Tuesday underlined their joint determination to use the spending to transform Europe’s economy and get the continent growing again as it lags behind the U.S. and China in rebounding from the pandemic recession. French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire urged the European Commission, the EU’s executive branch, to quickly evaluate the plans so that money can start flowing to member states from the 750-billion-euro ($906 billion) fund as early as July. They said the new spending, funded by shared debt, would avoid mistakes made in the wake of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis and recession, when countries focused excessively on cutting spending and closing deficits.


The major Europe stock markets had a negative day:

  • CAC 40 decreased 1.76 points or -0.03% to 6,273.76
  • FTSE 100 decreased 18.15 points or -0.26% to 6,944.97
  • DAX 30 decreased 47.07 points or -0.31% to 15,249.27


The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:

  • EURUSD decreased 0.00024 or -0.02% to 1.20784
  • GBPUSD increased 0.00149 or 0.11% to 1.39101
  • USDCHF decreased 0.00115 or -0.13% to 0.91333


Some economic news from Europe today:


Italian Business Confidence (Apr) increased from 101.9 to 105.4

Italian Consumer Confidence (Apr) increased from 100.9 to 102.3

Italian Trade Balance Non-EU (Mar) increased from 4.11B to 4.80B


CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Apr) increased from -45 to 20


The Biden administration is raising the minimum wage to $15 for all federal contract employees today via executive order. The new order begins January 30, 2022, with pay adjusted annually for inflation. The issue was not immediately bipartisan with seven Democrats opposing the measure with Republicans.

Forbes recently recounted the ongoing urban exodus in America amid low mortgage rates and a growing demand for remote work. Previously, urban dwellers were more susceptible to being priced out of the suburbs as city dwellers are selling their higher-priced real estate and moving to the suburbs. Danielle Hale, chief economist, anticipates home sales rising 7% in 2021, and prices to increase 5.7% despite already reaching all-time highs. Hale said she does expect the buying surge to slow by the end of the year once new construction advances. Daryl Fairweather, chief economist of Redfin, said he expects home sales to increase 10% in 2021 from 5% in 2020. He also said he expects homeownership to rise above 69% by the end of the year. David Howard, National Rental Home Council executive director, said that affordability and supply will be the two main driving forces. Although all economists interviewed by Forbes stated that the real estate market is relying on Millennials to purchase homes, however, Howard was one of the only to acknowledge that demographic is being priced-out of the market who are likely already paying a premium on rental housing. “Much of this move is being led by Millennials, who are transitioning squarely into prime household formation years. However, that generation is also the least wealthy at a time when the cost of homeownership continues to climb. We believe these demographic factors bode well in the coming years for the rental housing market, particularly single-family rental homes. Millennials’ demand for housing is not going to diminish, but it may just take a little longer to make homeownership a reality,” Howard said.

US Market Closings:

  • Dow advanced 2.9 points or 001% to 33,984.47
  • S&P 500 declined -0.96 of a point or -0.02% to 4,186.66
  • Nasdaq declined 48.46 points or -0.34% to 14,090.22
  • Russell 2000 advanced 3.26 points or 0.14% to 2,301.27


Canada Market Closings:

  • TSX Composite advanced 4.53 points or 0.02% to 19,175.09
  • TSX 60 advanced 0.69 of a point or 0.06% to 1,141.14


Brazil Market Closing:

  • Bovespa declined 1,206.24 points or -1% to 119,388.37



The oil markets had a green day today:


  • Crude Oil increased 0.51 USD/BBL or 0.82% to 62.4200
  • Brent increased 0.3 USD/BBL or 0.46% to 65.9500
  • Natural gas increased 0.076 USD/MMBtu or 2.72% to 2.8660
  • Gasoline increased 0.0286 USD/GAL or 1.45% to 2.0072
  • Heating oil increased 0.0157 USD/GAL or 0.84% to 1.8942
  • Top commodity gainers: Ethanol (5.96%), Palm Oil (4.76%), Sugar (4.43%) and Corn (2.90%)
  • Top commodity losers: Aluminum (-0.63%), Zinc (-0.78%), Lean Hogs (-0.96%), and Soybeans (-0.78%)

The above data was collected around 13:50 EST on Tuesday.


Japan 0.0880%(+1bp), US 2’s 0.18%(+0.008%), US 10’s 1.6128%(+4.28bps); US 30’s 2.2797%(+0.04%), Bunds -0.2490% (+1bp), France -0.0002% (+0bp), Italy 0.8210% (+2bp), Turkey 17.85% (-12bp), Greece 0.942% (+4bp), Portugal 0.431% (+2.4bp); Spain 0.424% (+1.73bp) and UK Gilts 0.775% (+2bp).


  • US 7-Year Note Auction increased from 1.300% to 1.306%