Posted Jun 29, 2023 by Martin Armstrong
Kiev’s Great Offensive has been unimpressive, to say the least. Ukrainian Defense Minister Aleksey Reznikov has claimed that he has yet to deploy the bulk of its Western-trained forces he keeps in reserve for this much-touted counteroffensive against Russian forces. They have only been able to capture a few small villages quite some distance from the major Russian defensive lines. The notorious Neocon, Lindsey Graham, says the counteroffensive is moving slowly but steadily.
Reznikov boasts, “When it [the major push] happens, you will all see it… Everyone will see everything.” These are supposed to be the main troop reserves, including most of the brigades trained in the West and armed with NATO-supplied tanks and armored vehicles. Reznikov also commented on the failed revolt by the Wagner private military company in Russia. He insisted that it was a “vivid illustration” of Moscow’s vulnerabilities.
The American Neocons were against Reagan even talking with Gorbachev. George Herbert Walker Bush, back in 1992, proclaimed the fall of the USSR and Communism would usher in the era of the peace dividend. The Neocons fight tooth & nail against any peace accord with anyone. Even the existence of NATO was being called into question once Communism fell, and with it, the Khruschev doctrine of spreading communism to overthrow capitalism.
That seems to have made the Neocons’ blood boil, but they have adopted the same policy and believe that they now have the right to assassinate foreign leaders, overthrow dictators, and destroy both Russia and China to spread their view of Capitalism to the world which is still authoritarian since they impose their doctrines that the Western people are never allowed to vote on.
Nevertheless, the Western press has been so indoctrinated by the Neocons using the standard demonization of a leader to create hatred of everyone in that target country or like Hillary did to everyone who voted for Trump, calling them the “deplorables” thereby demonizing 50% of the nation. The Ukrainians were ecstatic, watching with joy as Russia, they were told, was on the verge of a Civil War. They had hoped that Yevgeny Prigozhin’s march on Moscow would end the war and overthrow Vladimir Putin’s regime. They have lied so much demonizing Putin that they themselves seemed to believe their own propaganda that replaced Putin, and there would be peace, and Russia would crumble into dust. They pay no attention to the hardliners waiting in the wings.
Alas, the insurrection proved short-lived, for 75% of Prigozhin’s army did not follow him. This great counteroffensive that began on June 4th has shown little sign of breaking through Russian lines in force any time soon. This has called into question Reznikov’s claims, for at the same time, some Western officials are suddenly becoming very nervous and want to talk about peace. Zelensky exploited the event to further his propaganda calling it a “happy day” after visiting the front lines on June 26th.
The question is whether the events in Russia will have longer-lasting effects on the battlefield and this RIFT I have been writing about for months where the Russian Military has been divided and felt that Putin had their hands tied with this “special operation” only to protect the Donbas and not to invade Ukraine proper. Those in the Military see it as a losing strategy, just like the US failed in Vietnam for the same reason – not bombing the North.
Some fear that the Wagner Group might try to cut off the military supplies coming from Poland. Others see that moving to Belarus would allow them to invade and take Kiev. What is clear is that many of Wagner’s forces have joined the Russian Military and returned to Ukraine. Others, including the 2,500 to 5,000 troops who played a role in the mutiny, may join Mr. Prigozhin in Belarus, which concerns NATO.
Alexander Lukashenko offered the Wagner troops the use of an abandoned military camp. There is no question that these are professional troops who could be used on missions that the Russian Military does not formally sanction. That all depends on the relations with Moscow. The propaganda has no doubt caused much confusion on both sides. Prigozhin now insists that he was never out to topple Mr Putin. Indeed, it was unlikely that he could have ever done that for he would have been annihilated.
The impact on Russia’s high command raised by this insurrection is much more significant. The divisions and intrigues inside Russia’s leadership have been apparent for months. General Sergei Surovikin, the commander of Russian forces in Ukraine between October and January, had prior knowledge of the rebellion as did many others. This was no surprise and even came on time with our model’s forecast. Prigozhin, it was claimed, had intended to kidnap Sergei Shoigu, the defense minister, and General Valery Gerasimov when they visited the Ukraine border. That was well known. So this “coup” was certainly no secret.
Because Ukraine is making slower progress than the American Neocons and European officials had hoped, there are some calling for peace talks fearing that Russia will become much more aggressive after this coup. Ukrain’s casualties are enormous, and over 8 million people have fled Ukraine resulting in a dwindling population even to draft people from. Assuming that Ukraine has yet to commit the majority of its new Western-equipped brigades to the battlefront, any attack against well-defended Russian positions, including minefields, has only exposed Ukraine’s troops with limited NATO training and is still no match for seasoned troops. That is a lesson that is as old as the Roman Empire.
Ukrainian commanders are suffering with significantly depleted forces, while the American Neocons wanted shock & awe for video clips on CNN. The Art of War is a great instruction. Pretend to be weak when you are strong. Things may not be what they appear – that is the lesson of war. The West reported this as if it was a real coup. They never had the army necessary to overthrow Putin or invade Moscow. Was this all a show to also appear weak and get the Ukrainians all excited, thinking they had just won to lower their guard?