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Is Russia Losing?

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Ukraine Kharkov

The Ukrainian army is at least one-third larger than it was last year and some claim it has doubled in size. They have been concentrating their effort, not on the Donbas, but on Ukraine’s Kharkov region. The Russian Defense Ministry has confirmed that Russia has withdrawn its troops from multiple locations across Ukraine’s Kharkov region pulling back to the Donbas in the face of a major Ukrainian offensive in the area. The Ministry has actually stated: “In order to achieve the goals of the special military operation, a decision was made to regroup troops in the areas of Balakleya and Izyum in order to build up efforts in the Donetsk direction.”

The troops that were stationed in the Kharkov area have been “re-deployed” over the past three days pulling back to the Donetsk People’s Republic. It also stated that during its withdrawal, the military had performed a “number of distracting and demonstration activities imitating the real action of troops.”  It did not elaborate. It was attacking the Ukrainians to allow the withdrawal with artillery, missile, and aircraft attacks to provide cover. They claimed that they destroyed over 100 armor pieces and artillery and eliminated “more than 2,000 Ukrainian and foreign fighters” in the past three days. The Ukrainian offensive was launched in the Kharkov Region on Thursday, but they were not as successful.

The real problem will emerge with the coming winter and is likely to be a very tough winter. While NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg keeps urging Ukraine to continue fighting against Russia, it puts out this urging saying that otherwise, the country may “cease to exist” as an independent nation. From the outset, Putin did not seek to conquer all of Ukraine. One must wonder if the West is not propagating this war claiming Ukraine will cease to exist unless it fights Russia. That certainly eliminates any settlement or a peace treaty. NATO needs war with Russia and Putin by now has to understand that his real enemy is NATO and the USA. The propaganda fueling this agenda can be seen in the words of Stoltenberg who told the AP:

“If President [Vladimir] Putin and Russia stop fighting, then we will have peace. If Ukraine stops fighting, then Ukraine will cease to exist as an independent nation.” 

Stoltenberg admitted that there has been “no sign” that Putin or Moscow is giving up its objectives in Ukraine. He keeps insisting that Russia’s ultimate goal in the conflict is “taking control of Ukraine.” He knows that is not true and perhaps is begging Putin to adopt that goal. If that were true, Putin should do as the USA did in Iraq – (1) take down the power grid, (2) take down the communications, (3) attack the water supply, and (4) attack the food supply.

Ukraine ECM

“Winter’s coming” as they warned in Game of Thrones. Reuters has reported that the flows of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine were stable at the start of the week. Nord Stream 1 pipeline from Russia to Germany “remained shut and eastbound gas flows via the Yamal-Europe pipeline to Poland from Germany continued at low levels.”

Beware of the feigned-retreat is a military tactic, whereby a military force pretends to withdraw to lure an enemy into a position of vulnerability. Ukraine is now concentrating its forces in Kharkov region. Putin cannot be stupid and with the approach of winter, he should cut off all the gas through Ukraine to Europe and do as Stoltenberg keeps saying. There are two options. Use Tactical nuclear weapons, also called nonstrategic nuclear weapons, are generally designed for battlefield use and have a shorter range than strategic, or long-range, nuclear weapons, which are designed to directly attack an adversary’s homeland.

Herodotus reported that the Ancient Spartans used the feigned-retreat tactic at the Battle of Thermopylae (480BC) to defeat a force of Persian Immortals. Socrates debated a general who said it was cowardly to retreat. Even during the Battle of Agrigentum, in Sicily (262BC) during the First Punic War. Then the Carthaginian general Hanno, son of Hannibal, sent in his cavalry to attack the Roman cavalry and then pulled a feign-retreat drawing the Romans right into the arms of the main Carthaginian army waiting patiently.

Russia sent troops into Ukraine on February 24, citing Kiev’s failure to implement the Minsk agreements that were to provide the regions of Donetsk and Lugansk special status within the Ukrainian state and to vote on their own separation since they were ethnically Russians. That agreement was brokered by Germany and France and was first signed in 2014. Former Ukrainian President Pyotr Poroshenko then admitted that Kiev’s main goal was to use the ceasefire to buy time and “create powerful armed forces.” That is precisely what was done.

The problem now is that this appears to be an all-out war that the West keeps saying Russia is losing. I fear if that were true, then we will be looking at tactical nuclear weapons being used in Ukraine calling the bluff of Europe- Who will be next? Beware of next April and this coming January does not look very quiet on the Western front. The Pi Target from the fall of the USSR comes on April 6th, 2023. The West keeps telling the Ukrainians that Russia is losing and that the overthrow of Putin will bring peace. I fear this is just total propaganda dor the people behind Putin are far worse and think he has been too soft on Ukraine.