Blog/2016 U.S. Presidential Election
Posted Oct 9, 2015 by Martin Armstrong
Our computer has been projecting an emerging civil war within the Republican Party. A lot of e-mails have come in on this subject. Rep. Kevin McCarthy’s startling decision to pull out of the race for Speaker of the House of Representatives illustrates, quite openly, how the Republican Party is bitterly divided between hardcore conservatives and the country club establishment. This is also reflected in the rise of Donald Trump. Trump has been leading the polls in Florida, beating Bush in his home ground, no less Rubio and Hillary. Trump is the anti-politician and this highlights the rising tension in politics.
The Republican civil war escalated with the rise of the Tea Party six years ago. Our models have been pointing to 2016 as the year from political hell, and few people thought our computer would ever be right. Some in political circles commented that our computer had been correct with all prior elections. But this was luck since it was based upon trends without polling individuals. What they do not grasp is that people respond to the trend; if you get that correct, you can forecast which way they will vote.
Our political forecast coordinated with the Economic Confidence Model. What we are seeing is part of the times, driven by high taxes, declining economic growth, rising unemployment for the youth, and politicians who have become corrupt and disconnected from society. The non-establishment country club Republicans are rising to the top and the political establishment, along with the press, are fighting against this trend without accepting responsibility for their own actions. I would certainly never vote for any established politician for nothing will change regardless of who wins be it Hillary or Bush.
The Republican civil war has intensified over the summer and fall as Washington outsiders are leading most Republican polls and beating the establishment on every front no matter how hard the “free press” tries to change the trend. The press refuses to publish their own polls that state people no longer trust mainstream journalists. This political season has exposed them as trying to influence the elections rather than reporting on the trend.
Republicans may control both chambers, but they struggle to get anything done because of the divide between country club Republicans, led by John Boehner (R-Ohio), who openly tried to fund upsets to purge everyone in the Tea Party. Boehner removed anyone who supported Ron Paul and would not allow Ron Paul’s name to even be placed into nomination at the last presidential convention. Boehner has done far more to divide the Republic Party and its destruction rests squarely on his shoulders.
McCarthy, the House majority leader, was certainly the clear favorite to succeed Speaker Boehner in a normal world. However, the California congressman was hardly a consensus choice since he was part of the country club establishment whom would only further divide the party. McCarthy is the majority leader but he will NEVER gain the support of the Tea Party members for he went along with Boehner in backstabbing them at every opportunity. The country club Republicans are coming to an end. This is going to be a very interesting 2016. For now, the fear rests on the prospect that the government will shut down as kicking the can down the road is under fire.
Yes, it would be nice to restructure everything right now. It would be easy to save the nation in 30 days or less if we approach this from a practical perspective as if we were saving a bankrupt corporation. The first country to accept a restructuring will be like Britain in 1931 when it abandoned austerity (gold standard) and was the first to rise from the Great Depression. The Democrats are just thieves in the night who are hell bent on robbing anyone who has money to line their own pockets.
The answer is right there before our eyes. The problem that prevents saving the nation is that there are too many politicians.