Blog/2016 U.S. Presidential Election
Posted May 20, 2016 by Martin Armstrong
The latest poll now places Trump ahead of Hillary 45 to 42. The storm continues to brew in the Democratic Party and our models show there should be a Republican victory. The Democrats appear to be going with Hillary who has over a 50% rating as being dishonest. On top of that, she is simply seen as the establishment for Wall Street. Then, she thinks she is doing a great job saying she will appoint Bill to run the economy. Isn’t that an admission that she cannot? Trump said she just wants to keep an eye on him.
I wrote a piece for the Wall Street Journal on April 19, 1995 about Bill Clinton’s gimmick to reduce the deficit. What he did was replace long-term debt with short-term to reduce the interest expenditures. That trick will not work this time around. All the polls show that on the question of the economy, the people trust Trump more than Hillary and Bill. It’s just very curious that someone running for President admits that they cannot manage the economy so they will appoint their spouse. For a feminist, that really turns the apple cart upside down.
There is talk that Bernie might run 3rd party. That seems difficult for he would not have the time to get on the ballot in all the states. With over 30% of his supporters saying that they would vote for Trump rather than Hillary, we can can see the fall become interesting. That does not mean that the 70% of Bernie supporters would vote for Hillary. She is still everything they are not and the under 50 crowd are less likely to vote party line. There is a stronger likelihood they would not bother to vote at all. Trump’s supporters are charged and passionate. Hillary’s are not. She has brought in the old feminist supporters, but she is not bringing in the new generation.
It is still far too early to tell. Nonetheless, two of our 4 models project maximum percentages of the popular vote over 60% for Trump. That would be amazing since FDR, Johnson, and Nixon are the only presidents to exceed 60% since 1900. Still, the Republicans could lose the Senate. Even John McCain is claiming he may lose because Trump is at the head of the ticket. No, he is “establishment” and has not figured out he is the problem. Anyone who has ever encountered him in person will tell you he is a nasty overbearing guy that belittles a waitress. Anyone who does that lacks any style or class and is not qualified for public office anyway.