Blog/2016 U.S. Presidential Election
Posted Nov 8, 2016 by Martin Armstrong
Well, the election that seemed to never end is finally coming to an end, but will it end today? This is very interesting to watch how biased the press has become and clearly they have lost all credibility. This election is the most dramatic I have ever seen in my lifetime. Normally, there is really no difference between who is elected. This time, it is so black and white, you really have to stop and think.
A Clinton victory will be good for the dollar, but for all the wrong reasons. Hillary is bought and paid for so we will see her wage war against Syria/Russia on behalf of Saudi Arabia & Qatar. A Trump victory will be exactly the opposite and a move back to isolationist, which will be far more positive for the domestic economy and a 15% corporate tax rates would see $3 trillion in cash pour back into the USA. The dollar will soar for economic reasons. So it appears that no matter who wins, the dollar will rise and that will aid the stock market.
Nevertheless, the markets appear to be manipulated for they are desperately trying to sell the share market down under the theory Trump might win. This certainly would not even hold up fundamentally given our models and the trend in capital flows. Clearly, the powers that be are trying very hard to press the market down to say see what Trump would do. The logic is completely opposite whereas Clinton will get us into war and raise taxes while Trump would be more isolationist and be far more pro-economic growth.
Our models show more of a reaction than a trend changer. Just watch the 160150 level in the 30-year bond futures. A monthly closing below that level will signal the Bond Bubble has burst. In the Dow Jones Industrials, the number to watch will be a monthly closing below 17330. These are the numbers to pay attention to that would signal a change in trend mid-term. Meanwhile, a closing in gold on a monthly basis below 1242 will also signal a change in trend to the downside is likely.